Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
11 years ago
Okay, this is my best guess at a possible trade-down scenario, but one that does its best to eliminate the factor of "Wade's wishful thinking".

I used the engine of first-pick.com, but:
1. I only drafted players I think have better than 67% odds of being available at the pick selected. If a player was still available in the game at pick #X but I think him less than a 2/3 chance of actually being there I didn't take him.
1a. But I did not allow myself to "add back" earlier picks by the first-pick.com computerthat I thought were major reaches. A player thus left the board two different ways: the computer took him off the board; or I thought he'd be gone by the pick in question.
2. I did draft BPA throughout, but if it was close (say Deone Bucannon and Ju'Wuan James), I went with the bigger position of need (i.e., safety). Annoyingly, this meant I ended up only getting one OL despite the extra picks.
3. I allowed myself just two trade downs in the entire draft.
4. I only considered the "two worst trade offers" shown by the game at a given pick.
5. I didn't allow myself to trade with Detroit or Chicago (on "never trade within division" theory) or with San Francisco or Seattle (never trade with serious playoff competition). I did, however, allow myself to trade with Minnesota for my first trade on the principle that "the Vikings are always idiots and going to be losers regardless".
6. Drafted players listed by primary position I expect them to play in GB.

Here's what I came up with:

First round.

Trade #21 with Minnesota for 2nd #8, 3rd #8, 3rd #32, and 4th #8.
(Minnesota picked Derek Carr...hehe.)
Still available at #21 were: Dennard, M. Lee, Ealy, Fuller, Ward, and Hageman. PH citizens start calling for my head. I tried to add B J Raji to the deal, but the Vikings balked.

Second round:

Trade #8 to Tennessee for #10 in 2nd and #16 in 3rd. Trading now done for the rest of the draft.
(Tennessee picks Morgan Moses...hehe)
Also available at #8 but not at #10 -- PH citizens continue to simmer about the first trade.
Pick #10: Deone Bucannon, FS
Also available: Ju'Wuan james, Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Terrence Brooks, Austin-Seferian-Jenkins.] PH fans turn up the heat of annoyance at me skipping Shazier twice.
Pick #21: Jeremiah Attaochu.
[Also available: DaQuan Jones, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Lamarcus Joyner, Troy Niklas, Weston Richburg.]
PH still muttering about Dennard and Shazier.

Third round:

Pick #8: Chris Borland, ILB.
Also available: Jackson Jeffcoat, Kareem Martin, Martavis Bryant, Travis Swanson. Demarcus Lawrence, Charles Sims, Bashaud Breeland.
Pick #16: Daniel McCullers, NT
Also available: Keith McGill, Louchiez Purifoy, Travis Swanson, Anthony Johnson
Pick #21: Charles Sims, RB.
Also available: Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Watkins, Purifoy, Cody Latimer.
Pick #32: Rashaad Reynolds, CB.
Also available: Craig Loston, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Jared Abbrederis, Shayne Skov, Keith McGill
Pick #34: Christian Jones, ILB.
Also available: Chris Smith, Fiedorowitz, Bryan Stork, Dion Bailey

Fourth round:

Pick #8: Dri Archer, PR/KR
Also available: Dion Bailey, Skov, Cameron Fleming, Antone Exum, Ryan Grant, Devin Street, Josh Huff.
Pick #21: Nat Berhe, SS.
Also available: Ahmad Dixon, Caraun Reid, Ed Stinson. Anthony Steen, Trai Turner, Preston Brown, Dontae Johnson. Michael Schofield, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Marqueston Huff.

Fifth round:
Pick #21: Russell Bodine, OG

Also available: Brent Urban, Charles Leno, James White, David Fales, Kevin Pierre-Louis
Pick #36: Ryan Carrethers, DT.
Also available: Max Bullough, Xavier Grimble, Colt Lyerla, Kevin Norwood, Christian Bryant, Tyler Starr, Brandon Thomas, Ross Cockrell

Sixth round:
Pick #21: Matt Hazel, WR

Also available: Devon Kennard, James White, Rajion Neal, Seantrel Henderson, Jonathan Newsome, Marcel Jensen, Matt Armstrong, Trey Millard.

Seventh round:
Pick #21: Aaron Colvin, CB.

Also available: Marcus Williams, De'Anthony Thomas, John Brown, John Urschel, Justin Britt, Raijon Neal, Tajh Boyd, Derrell Johnson.





And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
Tezzy
11 years ago
A+ for effort.
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
play2win
11 years ago

Okay, this is my best guess at a possible trade-down scenario, but one that does its best to eliminate the factor of "Wade's wishful thinking".

I used the engine of first-pick.com, but:
1. I only drafted players I think have better than 67% odds of being available at the pick selected. If a player was still available in the game at pick #X but I think him less than a 2/3 chance of actually being there I didn't take him.
1a. But I did not allow myself to "add back" earlier picks by the first-pick.com computerthat I thought were major reaches. A player thus left the board two different ways: the computer took him off the board; or I thought he'd be gone by the pick in question.
2. I did draft BPA throughout, but if it was close (say Deone Bucannon and Ju'Wuan James), I went with the bigger position of need (i.e., safety). Annoyingly, this meant I ended up only getting one OL despite the extra picks.
3. I allowed myself just two trade downs in the entire draft.
4. I only considered the "two worst trade offers" shown by the game at a given pick.
5. I didn't allow myself to trade with Detroit or Chicago (on "never trade within division" theory) or with San Francisco or Seattle (never trade with serious playoff competition). I did, however, allow myself to trade with Minnesota for my first trade on the principle that "the Vikings are always idiots and going to be losers regardless".
6. Drafted players listed by primary position I expect them to play in GB.

Here's what I came up with:

First round.

Trade #21 with Minnesota for 2nd #8, 3rd #8, 3rd #32, and 4th #8.
(Minnesota picked Derek Carr...hehe.)
Still available at #21 were: Dennard, M. Lee, Ealy, Fuller, Ward, and Hageman. PH citizens start calling for my head. I tried to add B J Raji to the deal, but the Vikings balked.

Second round:

Trade #8 to Tennessee for #10 in 2nd and #16 in 3rd. Trading now done for the rest of the draft.
(Tennessee picks Morgan Moses...hehe)
Also available at #8 but not at #10 -- PH citizens continue to simmer about the first trade.
Pick #10: Deone Bucannon, FS
Also available: Ju'Wuan james, Kyle Van Noy, Ryan Shazier, Terrence Brooks, Austin-Seferian-Jenkins.] PH fans turn up the heat of annoyance at me skipping Shazier twice.
Pick #21: Jeremiah Attaochu.
[Also available: DaQuan Jones, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Lamarcus Joyner, Troy Niklas, Weston Richburg.]
PH still muttering about Dennard and Shazier.

Third round:

Pick #8: Chris Borland, ILB.
Also available: Jackson Jeffcoat, Kareem Martin, Martavis Bryant, Travis Swanson. Demarcus Lawrence, Charles Sims, Bashaud Breeland.
Pick #16: Daniel McCullers, NT
Also available: Keith McGill, Louchiez Purifoy, Travis Swanson, Anthony Johnson
Pick #21: Charles Sims, RB.
Also available: Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Watkins, Purifoy, Cody Latimer.
Pick #32: Rashaad Reynolds, CB.
Also available: Craig Loston, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Jared Abbrederis, Shayne Skov, Keith McGill
Pick #34: Christian Jones, ILB.
Also available: Chris Smith, Fiedorowitz, Bryan Stork, Dion Bailey

Fourth round:

Pick #8: Dri Archer, PR/KR
Also available: Dion Bailey, Skov, Cameron Fleming, Antone Exum, Ryan Grant, Devin Street, Josh Huff.
Pick #21: Nat Berhe, SS.
Also available: Ahmad Dixon, Caraun Reid, Ed Stinson. Anthony Steen, Trai Turner, Preston Brown, Dontae Johnson. Michael Schofield, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Marqueston Huff.

Fifth round:
Pick #21: Russell Bodine, OG

Also available: Brent Urban, Charles Leno, James White, David Fales, Kevin Pierre-Louis
Pick #36: Ryan Carrethers, DT.
Also available: Max Bullough, Xavier Grimble, Colt Lyerla, Kevin Norwood, Christian Bryant, Tyler Starr, Brandon Thomas, Ross Cockrell

Sixth round:
Pick #21: Matt Hazel, WR

Also available: Devon Kennard, James White, Rajion Neal, Seantrel Henderson, Jonathan Newsome, Marcel Jensen, Matt Armstrong, Trey Millard.

Seventh round:
Pick #21: Aaron Colvin, CB.

Also available: Marcus Williams, De'Anthony Thomas, John Brown, John Urschel, Justin Britt, Raijon Neal, Tajh Boyd, Derrell Johnson.




Originally Posted by: Wade 



Yeah, that's a lot of work. I just think we miss out on a lot of top players. I doubt Bucannon falls that far.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
11 years ago
Hey you peeked. That is mine too.
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Mucky Tundra (17-Aug) : Not a surprise; inevitable
Zero2Cool (17-Aug) : Brewers streak ends at 14
Zero2Cool (17-Aug) : SURPRISE
Mucky Tundra (17-Aug) : @mattschneidman Matt LaFleur on MarShawn Lloyd: “He’s gonna miss some time.”
Mucky Tundra (16-Aug) : CLIFFORD WITH THE TD WITH UNDER 2 TO GO!!!!!
Zero2Cool (16-Aug) : 90 MINUTES UNTIL FAKE KICKOFF!!
Martha Careful (16-Aug) : I think Ruven is a bot, but regardless should be stricken from the site.
Zero2Cool (14-Aug) : Packers RB Josh Jacobs ranked No. 33 in NFL 'Top 100'
dfosterf (13-Aug) : The LVN Musgrave collision- Andy Herman said Musgrave seemed to be the one most impacted injury-wise
dfosterf (13-Aug) : a lower back injury
dfosterf (13-Aug) : Doubs says he's "fine" after injury scare. Some reported it as z
Mucky Tundra (13-Aug) : With LVN that is; need to see what happens in the next practice
Mucky Tundra (13-Aug) : beast, reading about what happened, it sounded like one of those "two guys collide and are moving slow afterwards" type of deals
beast (12-Aug) : I believe Musgrave has been injured every single season since at least a Sophomore in highschool
packerfanoutwest (12-Aug) : Matt LaFleur: “Highly unlikely” Jordan Love plays more this preseason
dfosterf (12-Aug) : Doubs, Savion Williams, LVN, Musgrave all banged up to one degree or another, missing one here I forget
Zero2Cool (12-Aug) : RB Tyrion Davis-Price is signing with the Green Bay Packers.
Zero2Cool (12-Aug) : zero help, dominated. preseason
beast (12-Aug) : QB Jordan Love has surgery
beast (12-Aug) : Martha said Morgan had a lot of help, I didn't watch the OL so I can't say.
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers LT Jordan Morgan did not allow a single pressure across 23 pass-blocking snaps vs. Jets last night, per PFF
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : With buckeye and the reasonable couple, we're currently sitting at 10
buckeyepackfan (10-Aug) : Just posted to re-up on our FFL.
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : If healthy after, then thats all I care. Well, no drops would be nice
wpr (10-Aug) : I made it through the 1st Q.
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Just gotta figure out how.
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Could have been a worse start, so there is that.
beast (10-Aug) : Yeah, someone tell the Packers football season has started, seems like they weren't ready for it
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : Sooooooo many penalties
Mucky Tundra (10-Aug) : It may only be preseason, but this game is a trip to the dentist
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers do bad -- FREAK OUT!!!!!!
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Packers do good -- eh only preseason
dfosterf (10-Aug) : Well that half was fun
Zero2Cool (10-Aug) : Great, zayne is down
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : 13 minutes away from kickkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkoffff
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : Had Celebration of Life for my uncle up north. wicked rain hope it dont come south
Mucky Tundra (9-Aug) : THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ARE PLAYING FOOTBALL TONIGHT!!!!!! THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!!!
Zero2Cool (9-Aug) : Woo-hoo
TheKanataThrilla (9-Aug) : NFL Network is broadcasting the game tonight, but not in Canada. Not sure why as no local television is showing the game.
beast (8-Aug) : But the Return from IR designations had to be applied by the 53 man cutdown.
beast (8-Aug) : It's a new rule, so it's not clear, but my understanding was that they could be IR'd at any time
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : *had to be IRed at 53
Mucky Tundra (8-Aug) : beast, I thought the designate return from IR players had to be IR at cutdowns to 53, not before
beast (8-Aug) : It's a brand new rule, either last season or this season, prior, all pre-season IRs were done for the season
beast (8-Aug) : But the Packers would have to use one for their return from IR spots on him, when they cut down to 53.
beast (8-Aug) : I think the NFL recently changed the IR rules, so maybe the season might not be over for OL Glover.
Zero2Cool (8-Aug) : Packers star Howton, first NFLPA prez, dies at 95 😔
dfosterf (8-Aug) : Apparently it is too complicated for several to follow your simple instructions, but I digress
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