Some guy (who loves math and code breaking) figured out the formula the NFL used for Comp picks and he used to release a list before the NFL would.... he wouldn't share what the formula was though and I think he's stop doing it. But he did say the biggest factor in the formula was money per year of the new contract the FA got.
NFL has said they also factor some in number of games played in the new year and post season honors, among a lot of other stuff too.
I think based on money per year, both Wells and Flynn should of got a 4th round pick. BUT they also signed Saturday which knocks the Wells pick down, to probably a 6th at best (and maybe worse like 7th or no pick).
Then you have to factor in that both Wells (injury) and Flynn (back-up) missed a lot of games which hurt, and Saturday (questionably) made the pro-bowl (post season honor) which all hurts the Packers comp pick.
I'm hoping, Flynn money per year was still so high that hopefully that stays a 4th even with the hit of him not playing a lot.
But the double hit on the Wells one with little games and Saturday... I'm guessing that's probably going to be a 7th or no comp pick...
My guess is 4th and 7th this year...
I'm thinking
best case is 4th and 6th.
worse case 5th only.