Baseball has had in depth statistical analysis, commonly called sabermetrics, for years now, but football has been severely lacking, albeit for legitimate reasons that are beyond the scope of this post. For those not familiar with sabermetrics, Bill James created what is called the Pythagorean Theory. Forget what you learned in school - it has nothing to do with triangles. Rather, it's a formula taking into account runs scored and runs allowed to generate an "expected win-loss record. The formula is remarkably accurate to the point where deviations between actual win-loss record and expected win-loss record can be attribute to luck or randomness.

I could go on for days on this topic, but let me get to the point. (I'll answer specific questions throughout the thread if needed) People are developing similar metrics for football. Here's a site I came across showing the "luckiest" and "unluckiest" NFL teams of this year. As you can expect, the Packers are the unluckiest.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/12/luckiest-teams-through-week-15.html 

The numbers show that, according to this person's data and formulas, the Packers "should" have won 3 more games than they have. They "should" be 8-6 rather that 5-9.

Why is this significant? Well, for this year it's not. Our record is what it is. But it's encouraging for next year. What this data means is that if you ran this season through 100 times over, the Packers are likely to win 8 of 14 games more often than not. It means that we're likely to regress towards the mean - that our luck will even out.

That's why I'm not concerned with this team. I truly believe that if you run this exact same squad out next year - minus the injuries - they're likely to win 10 games or more. I'd bet on 11 or 12.

I'll stop here because I could literally write all night about topics like this, so it has to stop somewhere.

NOTE: PLEASE DON'T TURN THIS THREAD INTO AN ANTI-STAT THREAD. IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THIS NATURE IS WORTH A DAMN, SHUT UP AND MOVE ON TO THE NEXT THREAD. I HAVE NO INTEREST IN HAVING ANOTHER SUBJECTIVE MEASURE VS OBJECTIVE MEASURE DEBATE. THEY GET NOWHERE.

ps - I give that disclaimer a 5% chance of having any effectiveness.

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Interesting. Thanks.

Well I didn't enjoy my statistics math class one bit personally. I was much more a fan of Algebra to be honest. 🙂

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I have noticed this for a while now. I'm a big baseball fan and know all about Pythagorean Record and expected W/L. The Packers although being 5-9 have scored more than they have given up. That goes to show that a lot of it has had to do with luck, just based off of reason.

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Exactly. For comparison, we are +32 in points scored vs points allowed. The Dolphins are +14. We're 5-9, they're 9-5.

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No offense to anyone, but be realistic, this is just plain stupid.

Games are won and lost on the field. Not on paper. That's why we play the games in the first place. This is just a poor excuse for a disappointing season. I donno what games you have been watching, but we deserved to lose most of those close losses this year. Be real here. Personally, I think we're lucky to have 5 wins, and lucky to have had a chance in so many of the other games. Go ahead and give me all the stupid stats in the world about baseball and whatnot, it was stupid decisions that cost us those games.

Unless things change drastically, we are going to have a record similar to the lion's next year, don't be shocked if it happens.

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0-16 next year eh?

Hi Trolly Troll. How is life under the bridge? :)

Other than some key situational stats, our team has been far better than this record. We need to clean some things up, mature a bit, heal and not get so many penalties. Plus I want some monsters at DT. Other than that, I'm already rearing to go for next season.

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Less about luck, more about improper focus and preparation.

This team made way more mental mistakes than any other I can remember in many years.. even in 05'.. and we were playing with the Taco Wallace types for the later part of the year.

The lack of correction and growth on this team was so disappointing, we regressed in many ways.

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*Rumbles around forum, fails...* Where the HELL did I put my Vet's office/2nd waiting room/Field and Stream article/perch fishing story?...I know I put it somewhere...

:icon_smile:

EDIT-- Found it: (From yesterday)

I was sitting in the "second room" at the vets office last night, waiting to pick up Max. (He is still mad at me for having to spend the weekend there).

On one of the end tables was (I think) a "Field and Stream". Everyone knows what to do with a "Field and Stream". You go to the back page, and this is what I did. The author instantly had my close attention, because he was writing about white perch fishing on the Potomac river. (Homie thing, and something I have done in the environs of which he spoke)

Of course being in the second waiting room I was afforded the opportunity to read the whole article, and as anyone that has read the back page of this publication will attest, it has little to do with the fishing and a lot to do with life in general.

Something rather funny (amazing how the humor assists in the comprehension) struck me in that article. The author was describing his previous 4 attempts at white perch fishing on these stomping grounds, and his failures in those attempts, coupled with his complete success on this, his fifth "trip" there.

He said, "...this is the thing I have learned about luck." "It is absolutely indistinguishable from failure right up to the exact moment that you have it."

I liked that statement. I'm contemplating if he was even talking about luck.

I take a day off from the board and look what happens.. Foster loses his thread..

Me.. after kicking it in the butt yesterday for 15 hours at work.. I have recharged the pissed off batteries of frustration at this team.. :lol:

Oh and a healthy dose of optimism for next season as well. Being close in every game increases the frustration but it also allows one much hope with an adjustment here and there that this team can bounce back very well.

I think the changes are coming soon..

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