Zero2Cool
12 years ago

How do draft boards get set up in their ranking?

Do they give certain players a higher grade in certain rounds or is it by the teams need or do they rank the top 300 players ... or mixture of everything or what?

I'm curious how best player available can be different for every team ... and I believe that to be true. The best player available when the Packers are picking is going to be different than the Colts. Right?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



In 2005, Aaron Rodgers was the only 1st round rated player left available when they picked at 24. If he hadn't been there, I imagine they would have tried to trade out of the round.

I'm thinking they tie a round to every player in a three tier fashion. Early, Middle and Late.

Aaron Rodgers - 1 - middle
DeMarcus Ware - 1 - early


So if both were available, Ware gets the selection if they "trust their board" because he's rated as a early 1st round talent whereas Rodgers is rated as a middle 1st round talent.

This method makes sense to me.
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DoddPower
12 years ago
I thought they just assign a point system. A specific range of points represents which round and at what part of that round the player is ranked. I'm not sure of the convention, but I read about that number ranking system somewhere. Once they have that number attached to a player, it would make picking the best player easy. Not to mention sorting in Excel and all that other good stuff. Seems like a pretty good method. The difficulty is likely maintaining consistency in criteria among players and multiple "graders."
Zero2Cool
12 years ago

I thought they just assign a point system. A specific range of points represents which round and at what part of that round the player is ranked. I'm not sure of the convention, but I read about that number ranking system somewhere. Once they have that number attached to a player, it would make picking the best player easy. Not to mention sorting in Excel and all that other good stuff. Seems like a pretty good method. The difficulty is likely maintaining consistency in criteria among players and multiple "graders."

Originally Posted by: doddpower 



I could see a point system of some kind for sure. Going with what I was saying ...

100 - early first
150 - mid first
180 - late first


something to that effect.

I think you have to have some kind of criteria that incorporates the placement in the round because the same players available when the Colts pick won't be there when the Giants pick, necessarily.

I think that because say you have the 28th pick and your board shows the next best available player to be a middle 2nd round rating ... do you use that 28th pick or do you try to move back 10 or so spots, accumulate more picks and then take your selection a few spots sooner than where you have them rated?

It's chess match for sure because you have to also consider someone else overvaluing the top person on your board ... Christian Ponder comes to mind on taking someone far sooner than most would.
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Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
12 years ago

I could see a point system of some kind for sure. Going with what I was saying ...

100 - early first
150 - mid first
180 - late first


something to that effect.

I think you have to have some kind of criteria that incorporates the placement in the round because the same players available when the Colts pick won't be there when the Giants pick, necessarily.

I think that because say you have the 28th pick and your board shows the next best available player to be a middle 2nd round rating ... do you use that 28th pick or do you try to move back 10 or so spots, accumulate more picks and then take your selection a few spots sooner than where you have them rated?


It's chess match for sure because you have to also consider someone else overvaluing the top person on your board ... Christian Ponder comes to mind on taking someone far sooner than most would.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



I think this is exactly the approach a team should take. (Obviously this always depends on finding someone willing to trade, but I think the rule should always be "BPA, provided that the BPA has value for the position he's being taken."

This is why I think the Packers should trade out of #28. I think there are maybe 15-20 true first round quality players out there this year: Luck, Griffin, Blackmon, Kahlil, Claiborne, Richardson, DeCastro, Kuechly, Cox, Reiff, Floyd, Gilmore, Ingram, Brokers, Kirkpatrick, Tannehill, Coples, Weeden (if he weren't 28), maybe Barron, Poe. But the rest of people usually named? To my mind, they are 35-50 talent not 20-35 talent.

And on top of it, I think this draft is rich both in 35-50 and 50-100 talent.

And there's almost always a wealth of 100-150-level talent -- and that's where true drafting skill comes into play.

Will there be someone willing to use a first rounder on many of them? Yes, I expect so. And that's why I'd trade down. It's a situation made for trading down.

Much as I like Shea McClellin and Mychal Kendricks, much as I think Harrison Smith or Andre Branch or Kendell Reyes or Jerel Worthy or Doug Martin or Ronnell Lewis or Nick Perry or Kevin Zeitler would look good in green & gold, I'd rather risk missing any of them by trading down to 35-50 and getting another pick in the top 100-150. Because one or more of them are likely still going to be there at 35-50.

If one of TTs top 20 falls to him at 28, grab him (assuming its not a QB or WR). Otherwise, trade down. Pick up another pick sometime between late third and early-fifth.
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earthquake
12 years ago
http://drafttek.com/tradechart.html 

Lets say, 28 to 34 would net the 100th pick(early 4th)
28 to 38 would net the 90th pick (late 3rd)
28 to 42 would net the 82nd pick (mid-late 3rd)
28 to 46 would net the 74th pick (early-mid 3rd)

Honestly if they don't see the a guy at #28 with a first round grade, I would love to see a trade back to pick up more picks in the top 100, at #28 all the blue-chip players are gone anyway, so stock up on those 2nd and 3rd round picks, where there is likely some very good value to be had.

Now on the flip side, lets say they trade the 1st, 3rd and 4th round picks to move up to #20/21, anyone there worth it?
1st, 4th and 5th might move up to 25/26 past NE to snag an OLB with the 2 4th round comp picks this would be easy to stomach
1st, 2nd, and 3rd might get you up to #14-16 - really unlikely but thats what it would take(if not more)
blank
play2win
12 years ago
Really nice, insightful article on Ted's methods by Jason Wilde: Please click the link to support the efforts the writer, he's really good!

Help for the needy?
 

GREEN BAY – Sportswriters can snicker and sarcastically call Ted Thompson’s annual pre-draft press gathering a non-news conference all they want, and by Thompson’s own admission, they’ve probably got a point. The Green Bay Packers general manager says every year that he’s not going to give away any of what he calls “proprietary” information, and he doesn’t.

“I think it's good to have this talk, but then don't get mad at me if at the end of it you realize I haven't really said a whole lot, because that's sort of my job,” Thompson said to open one year’s presser. “I apologize for that, but that's the way it usually is. Sometimes you guys take a shot at me after this one, but we'll see.”

Thompson has made some variation of that joke just about every year since, but in 2009, he did deliver a small glimpse into how the Packers’ draft board is put together – one that is particularly instructive in advance of the 2012 NFL Draft, which kicks off in prime time on Thursday night with the first round.

At that 2009 pre-draft press conference, Thompson was asked how his board worked, and he actually explained it – stepping away from the microphone and walking to the front wall of the Lambeau Field media auditorium (making his explanation inaudible for broadcast media) to take reporters through it.

Thompson pointed to the top of the wall and explained, “We have all the positions across a long wall (at the top), and we always start with the receivers (first) over here, and then it goes tight ends, tackles, guards, centers, quarterbacks, running backs, fullbacks, defensive ends, defensive tackles and so forth … You don't need me to go through the whole thing.

“And then we have … it would be horizontal, right? Horizontal lines going like this, and the very top horizontal line, anything above that would be first-round players, second-round players, third-round players, fourth-round players. And so the board is going to (have) guys at each position and there's a certain number of players in a lot of the rounds at those positions, and some rounds there may be a blank where there's no players in that particular round.

“And when you go through the draft, in a perfect world, if you've done your job properly, you sit there and you just let it come to you, and if it's your pick in the first round, you look up there and if you've got two guys, then you say. ‘OK, there's the two guys we would take at this pick, which one do you want to take? Or if there are four guys, and then somebody calls and wants to move two spots up to your spot, then you think, ‘Well, you know, we've got four guys we'd like to have, we can trade back and we know we're going to get one of two (left).’ That's kind of the way it works.”

So what does all this have to do with this year’s draft?

As he prepares for preside over his eighth draft as the Packers’ GM, never has Thompson’s team had such obvious needs. Even in 2005 and 2006, when the cupboards were mostly bare after coach/GM Mike Sherman’s less-than-stellar drafts, the needs weren’t as clear-cut as they are this year.

While Thompson annually refuses to acknowledge areas of need on his roster, we don’t need him to. They are a pass-rushing outside linebacker to pair with Clay Matthews, a pass-rushing defensive lineman, a safety to replace just-released three-time Pro Bowler Nick Collins, a cornerback, a backup quarterback to replace Matt Flynn and a guard/center prospect to be mentored by Jeff Saturday.

With so many roster holes despite their gaudy 15-1 regular-season record, Thompson should be able to marry the best player available on his board – which, in truth, is something of a misnomer – with one of his team’s myriad of needs.

So how does need factor into Thompson’s picks?

“Need factors in if you have what you consider, the way they're up on the board, identical players at Position A, Position B, and you feel you have a more pressing need right at this moment for Position B,” Thompson explained. “But if there's a difference in those players, if Position A is truly a better player, then we feel like you have to take Position A. Because a draft is not a let's-get-ready-for-minicamp (thing); a draft is an investment in a player that's going to be here for a number of years. And when you don't take the best player, it'll just come back and bite you every time.

“We've all sinned and fallen short of the glory of God. I've taken players based off need or what I perceived to be a need and passed on another player that was really a better player. But we try not to do that, and I have people that keep reminding me of that all day long.”

Of Thompson’s first-round picks – California quarterback Aaron Rodgers (2005), Ohio State linebacker A.J. Hawk (2006), Tennessee defensive tackle Justin Harrell (2007), Boston College nose tackle B.J. Raji (2009), USC linebacker Clay Matthews (2009), Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga (2010) and Mississippi State tackle Derek Sherrod (2011) – only Hawk, Raji and Matthews filled immediate, pressing needs. In 2009, as they converted to the 3-4 defense, the Packers also had a high grade on Texas Tech wideout Michael Crabtree but opted for Raji, who filled a pressing need. Thompson then traded back up into the first round to nab Matthews, another player at a position he needed.

“We felt like when Clay fell a little bit in the first round and we had already taken B.J., the fact that we would use that sort of arsenal of draft choices to try to move up and take him, we felt this is a guy that’s by far the best player on the board,” Thompson said. “And he also would fit a particular need that we have.”

Meanwhile, although veteran tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton weren’t getting any younger, Tauscher was the right tackle starter entering 2010 and Clifton the left tackle starter to open 2011. It wasn’t as if those positions were vacant. Bulaga and Sherrod were taken to fill eventual needs, but on draft day, their selections weren’t imperative.

This year, fixing the defense – especially the pass rush, which was a major factor in the Packers giving up more passing yards than any defense in NFL history – is an imperative. And fortunately for Thompson, he should have some interesting options when he goes on the clock at No. 28, the first of his 12 draft picks.

At outside linebacker, among those who could be on the board are Boise State’s Shea McClellin, Syracuse’s Chandler Jones, Clemson’s Andre Branch, Alabama’s Courtney Upshaw or Dont’a Hightower, USC’s Nick Perry, South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, Illinois’ Whitney Mercilus or West Virginia’s Bruce Irvin. On the defensive line, Penn State defensive end Devon Still or Michigan State defensive tackle Jerel Worthy figure to be available at 28.

“I’m a firm a believer, and I know it sounds trite and maybe I’m making it up and we don’t do that, but I think you absolutely have to treat a draft choice, especially early in the draft as a long-term investment. And the best policy, in my view, is to take the best player because it gives you the best chance at getting a return on your investment,” Thompson said. “We’re not blind at what we’re trying to do and what we have and don’t have, but you can’t make an exception. If you have someone who have graded that’s clearly the best player, you take that player.”

That evidently was the case last year in the first round, when Thompson passed on Arizona outside linebacker Brooks Reed and selected Sherrod at No. 32.

Reed would have given the Packers that Matthews-complement immediately, rather than sticking with the conglomerate of Erik Walden, Frank Zombo and Brad Jones. At the same time, the Packers did have a healthy, albeit 35-year-old, Clifton set to start at left tackle after starting all 20 games (including playoffs) the year before. Nevertheless, Thompson didn’t go for the immediate need, although he did fill a long-term need.

Now, Thompson will have another shot at getting Matthews some help. His hope would be that at No. 28, McClellin – or whomever he has his eye on – is the best player on his board and fills a pressing need.

“You have the way you think the thing is going to fall, and you’re saying, ‘If all things being equal, I’d rather take this guy because he’s a little better at this and can help us a little bit with whatever we’re trying to do, whether it be on defense or offense,’” Thompson said. “Sometimes it falls that way, sometimes it doesn’t. But if you stick true to your plan and take the best player, it takes a lot of the guesswork and angst out of it. There’s no need in getting worried. The people in front of you are going to draft who they’re going to draft. When it gets to your turn, that’s what’s important. Make sure you take the best player you can take.”

JASON WILDE  wrote:

play2win
12 years ago
http://drafttek.com/tradechart.html 

Lets say, 28 to 34 would net the 100th pick(early 4th)
28 to 38 would net the 90th pick (late 3rd)
28 to 42 would net the 82nd pick (mid-late 3rd)
28 to 46 would net the 74th pick (early-mid 3rd)

Honestly if they don't see the a guy at #28 with a first round grade, I would love to see a trade back to pick up more picks in the top 100, at #28 all the blue-chip players are gone anyway, so stock up on those 2nd and 3rd round picks, where there is likely some very good value to be had.

Now on the flip side, lets say they trade the 1st, 3rd and 4th round picks to move up to #20/21, anyone there worth it?
1st, 4th and 5th might move up to 25/26 past NE to snag an OLB with the 2 4th round comp picks this would be easy to stomach
1st, 2nd, and 3rd might get you up to #14-16 - really unlikely but thats what it would take(if not more)



Good synopsis. This could get really interesting.
Zero2Cool
12 years ago

And then we have … it would be horizontal, right? Horizontal lines going like this, and the very top horizontal line, anything above that would be first-round players, second-round players, third-round players, fourth-round players. And so the board is going to (have) guys at each position and there's a certain number of players in a lot of the rounds at those positions, and some rounds there may be a blank where there's no players in that particular round.

And when you go through the draft, in a perfect world, if you've done your job properly, you sit there and you just let it come to you, and if it's your pick in the first round, you look up there and if you've got two guys, then you say. ‘OK, there's the two guys we would take at this pick, which one do you want to take? Or if there are four guys, and then somebody calls and wants to move two spots up to your spot, then you think, ‘Well, you know, we've got four guys we'd like to have, we can trade back and we know we're going to get one of two (left).’ That's kind of the way it works.

Ted Thompson wrote:



That's pretty much how I was thinking too ... although surely there's more to it.
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PackerTraxx
12 years ago
TT makes sense to me. It explains that Ted Thompson is defintely a BPA guy. And if he's fortunate need(s) coinside with the BPA. Makes drafting pretty simple, the tough part is putting the board together accurately.
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