Did the Green Bay Packers' 2011 season prove, once and for all, the value of an established 1-2 punch in the offensive backfield?
Or did it demonstrate how overblown that theory is?
[+] EnlargeRyan Grant
Howard Smith/US PresswirePackers running back Ryan Grant has 36 yards on eight carries this preseason.
That's the question I found myself asking while reading Tom Silverstein's analysis of the Packers' current backfield roster dilemma. In short, Silverstein sees three running backs with assured roster spots. Veteran Ryan Grant isn't one of them.
It's hard to imagine James Starks, John Kuhn or rookie Alex Green not making the final roster. It's been assumed that Grant would be part of that group as well, provided he returned healthy from an ankle injury that cost him most of last season. But the preseason performance of second-year player Dimitri Nance has at least given the Packers a more difficult decision than anticipated.
Nance is young and fresh-legged and, just as important, almost $4 million cheaper than Grant. Rare is the team that keeps four tailbacks unless one is a full-time returner or depth issues at other positions provide that flexibility. The Packers, however, could make reasonable arguments for keeping as many as seven receivers and maybe five tight ends. Something has to give at one of their offensive skill positions.
Normally, I would echo what coach Mike McCarthy said this spring: "If you look at history, you look at our history, running back is a position that you really don't have enough of. We play in the elements. Winning games in December and January outdoors, it's a big factor. We'll definitely make a conscious effort to always improve our running game."
Based on that theory, the Packers have already paid Grant a $1.75 million roster bonus this summer. But Silverstein's story hints at another element: Whether Grant has re-established himself as the same back he was before the injury. Here's how Silverstein put it: "Grant has missed some running opportunities this summer, including a poor decision on a draw play against the [Arizona] Cardinals, but he's also the kind of player who gets better with carries. The coaches might be seeing things others don't in the way Grant has run."
Grant has 36 yards on eight carries this preseason and figures to get extended playing time in Friday's preseason game at Indianapolis. If he hasn't fully recovered, it's not by much and probably perceptible only to a football professional.
Would something less than the pre-injury Grant be worth jettisoning in favor of, say, Nance? The bigger question is whether you trust the oft-injured Starks to be a reliable and weekly competitor. Starks had only 29 carries in the 2010 regular season and missed last week's preseason game because of an ankle injury.
KS wrote: