I always end up saying the same thing when this subject comes up, but here goes again: More rushing attempts does not lead to wins. It is the other way around: Wins lead to more rushing attempts. To be more specific, when a team is leading and/or its O-line is winning the battle in the trenches, it is going to run the ball more than it would if it is trailing and/or its O-line is losing the battle in the trenches.
"macbob" wrote:
Greg-agree up to a point, but your explanation does not seem to match up with our stats from this year.
Except for the Miami game (which we were losing 13-10 at the end of 3), we've been winning every single game through the first 3 quarters this year. I wouldn't expect (and there's not) a HUGE difference between the # of runs in the first half vs the second half: by quarter, weve run the ball 53, 45, 54, 64 times. Over 9 games, thats only 1 more rush per game in the 4th quarter compared to quarters 1 and 3, and 2 more times compared to quarter 2. So, were not running it significantly higher in the fourth quarter compared to most of the other quarters.
There is, however, a HUGE difference between our run/pass ratio between the wins and the losses, which I would NOT have expected since the 3 losses were all close games and the only one we were losing at the end of 3 (Mia) we were down by only 3 (13-10). We havent been needing to throw to catch up. Washington we were leading 13-3 at the end of 3. Chi we were leading 10-7. But heres the stats from our wins and losses (subtracting out Aaron Rodgerss runs, just looking at RB carries):
Wins:
Phi: 31 passes/28 rushes, 53/47%
Buf: 29/22, 57/43%
Det: 17/18, 49/51%
Min: 35/20, 64/36%
NYJ: 34/23, 60/40%
Dal: 35/30, 54/46%
Total 181/141, 56/44%
Losses:
Chi: 45/13, 78/22%
Was: 46/13, 78/22%
Mia: 33/17, 67/34%
Total 124/43, 74/26%
In the three losses McCarthy sold out the run and became one-dimensional. The defense did not need to take our running game seriously.
Washington certainly didnt. The few times we ran the ball against them we were running it well. We had 157 yds. Take out Aaron Rodgerss runs, and that drops the total to 127. 71 of those came on one play. Even subtracting that 71 yd run out, we still went 56 yds on 12 carries--we averaged almost 5 yds/carry.
Aaron Rodgers threw for 293 yds and 1 TD, but cleared hot to go after him, the Redskins ended up with 4 sacks and 1 INT. I believe if we had run the ball more to attain a more balanced attack during that game we would have won.
Bottomline for me is I wish we would aim more for a 56/44% passing ratio than 74/26%. Our record isnt as good when we dont have at least a credible run threat to slow down the pass rush.
"Greg C." wrote: