GREEN BAY Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has posted some impressive numbers in his 39 career starts for the Green Bay Packers, completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 10,441 yards with 72 touchdown passes and 28 interceptions.
But there's another statistic that hangs over Rodgers like a dark cloud: The Packers are 1-11 in games decided by four points or less since Packers coach Mike McCarthy told Brett Favre "we've moved on" and anointed Rodgers the starter for the 2008 season.
Three of those defeats have come in the past four weeks, including back-to-back three-point losses to Washington and Miami in overtime. Green Bay is 0-5 in overtime games with Rodgers under center.
As the Packers (3-3) welcome Favre and the Minnesota Vikings (2-3) to town for Sunday night's game at Lambeau Field, some people have begun to wonder if Rodgers has what it takes to lead his team to victories in close games.
Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin is not one of those people.
"I believe that you've got 11 guys, everybody's got to do their job," Philbin said earlier this week. "Everybody's job is dependent on the other guy. It's easy to say, Well, Aaron's 1-11 in close games, my God.'
"I don't see it that way. I look at it as our offensive performance. I haven't analyzed those 12 games collectively, but I bet if I did, there'd be some common threads there. Some may be related to him I'm sure part of it. But I bet you there's a lot of other things, too."
Blame game
A study of Rodgers' career shows he's actually been pretty good in crunch time of close games overall.
In addition to the 12 games that have been decided by four points or less, the study also included games the Packers led or trailed by seven points or less entering the fourth quarter.
In the fourth quarter and overtime of the 24 games that fit those criteria, Rodgers has completed 62.0 percent of his passes with 16 touchdown passes and seven interceptions for a passer rating of 98.0.
Compare that to Favre, who also was involved in 24 games that fit the aforementioned standards in his first 39 career starts with the Packers from 1992-94. In the fourth quarter and overtime of those games, Favre completed 57.8 percent of his passes with nine touchdown passes and 15 interceptions for a passer rating of 63.6.
But Favre has a significant edge in one important area: The Packers were 14-10 in "close" games in his first 39 starts; Green Bay is 8-16 in "close" games in Rodgers' first 39 starts.
"I always say that when things go well, quarterbacks get more credit than they deserve. And when they don't go well, they get more blame than they deserve," said Packers quarterbacks coach Tom Clements, who's in his 14th season as an NFL assistant and has coached both Favre and Rodgers since arriving in Green Bay with McCarthy in 2006.
"You look at those 12 games, it wasn't just the quarterback to blame. There were certain times where maybe he did what he was supposed to do and other guys didn't. There were other times where he didn't do what he was supposed to do and other guys did. But ultimately, they say the quarterback is 1-11. That's really not true."
As Philbin pointed out, Rodgers deserves some of the blame for the Packers' failures in close games.
Rodgers threw an interception in overtime that led to Washington's game-winning field goal in the Packers' 16-13 loss to the Redskins on Oct. 10. And while he completed 4 of 7 passes for 65 yards while directing a 12-play, 69-yard drive that ended with his 1-yard touchdown run late in regulation last week against Miami Rodgers made a gutsy call by changing the fourth-down play to a quarterback sneak that tied the game the offense went three-and-out during its only possession of overtime.
Meanwhile, in the Packers' lone victory in the 12 games that have been decided by four points or less since Rodgers took over a 28-26 win over Detroit earlier this month he threw a costly interception and didn't lead Green Bay to any points as the Lions nearly rallied for the win.
Breaking down the 24 "close" games with Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers are 2-10 in games they trailed entering the fourth quarter, 1-1 in games that were tied and 5-5 in games they led entering the final 15 minutes of regulation.
It should be noted that even Vikings coach Brad Childress rushed to Rodgers' defense earlier this week.
"You know, they get blamed too much when you lose and take too much when you win," Childress said when asked during a teleconference with Wisconsin reporters if quarterbacks should be judged on their record in close games. "But nonetheless, that's the nature of the beast. Everybody's going to point their eyes at the quarterback and say what you're going to say.
"You've got a (heck) of a quarterback there in Aaron Rodgers."
Rodgers stumped
Rodgers doesn't have a good answer for why he has a poor record in close games.
"We've lost three games this year by three points each game," Rodgers said. "Each of those games we had real good opportunities to win the game."
Rodgers' interception in overtime against Washington was a critical play, but he was just as disappointed about a series early in the second quarter that resulted in no points. Facing a second-and-goal from the Redskins' 1-yard line, the Packers went nowhere on three straight plays and handed the ball over to Washington on downs.
Instead of turning a 7-0 lead into a two-touchdown cushion, the Packers let a golden opportunity slip away. And it came back to haunt Green Bay when the Redskins erased a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to force overtime.
"These games come down to a small handful of plays that don't always happen at the end of a game," Rodgers said. "Sometimes they happen in the second quarter, first quarter, first possession of the second half. If you had done your job a little bit better - and I'm speaking personally, if I had done my job a little bit better on a play maybe in the red zone in the first quarter and you get seven (points) instead of three (points), it's a different game."
Instead, the Packers ended up with another in a line of close losses. The Packers are 4-13 in games decided by four or fewer points since McCarthy took over in 2006.
"It's become a situation," McCarthy said. "Anytime you have a tendency and it's produced negative results, you have to look at everything. You have to look at the plays you're calling, you have to look at the execution of it, the defenses that you're getting in those particular situations.
" ...We'll just continue to work at it, and we need to do a better job. There's no doubt about it."