Twenty-five months ago Mike McCarthy was riding high as head coach of the Green Bay Packers.
It was September 2008 and with two victories to open the season, the Packers under McCarthy had won 20 of their previous 24 games, a remarkable stretch of success that included a berth in the NFC championship game.
The Packers defeated Minnesota in their 2008 season opener to run McCarthys record of dominance over Vikings coach Brad Childress to 5-0. Life was good, victories flowed freely and the sky appeared to be the limit for McCarthys Packers.
But in the 37 games since, the Packers record has been a less than impressive 18-19. The Packers, who have lost three of their last four games, are desperate for a victory in Sunday nights crucial NFC North showdown against the Vikings at Lambeau Field. After serving as McCarthys doormat, Childress is seeking to turn the tables and claim his fourth consecutive victory over the Packers.
Both McCarthy and Childress are in their fifth season as head coaches. Both have 1-2 playoff records. Both ended recent seasons with overtime losses in the NFC title game. But McCarthys once commanding 9-game lead over Childress in overall record has slipped to 2 games (42-31 compared to 39-33).
McCarthys coaching resolve will be tested like never before in the coming month, with rugged road games at the New York Jets, Minnesota and Atlanta looming. Its the kind of brutal schedule that could send the Packers playoff hopes plummeting, or elevate the team once again to elite status.
Either way, the next five weeks could serve as a defining stretch in McCarthys tenure.
Can he guide the Packers back to the winning ways of his first 36 games as coach, when they were 24-12? Or is the current rut, in which the Packers have hovered at the .500 mark, indicative of things to come?
McCarthy directs highly organized practices and spells out in detail exactly what he wants to accomplish. That approach translated into almost immediate success when in his second year he led the Packers to within an eyelash of the Super Bowl.
But nothing has come easily since then. The Packers have developed some disturbing patterns under McCarthy that if left unchecked, will make consistent winning difficult to achieve:
The Packers have been one of the most penalized teams in the league under McCarthy. They were second in penalties in 2008, first in 2009 and rank seventh this year. Any excuse McCarthy makes about this deplorable trend is a bad one. The consistently high rate of mistakes is killing drives and losing games, and McCarthy has been unable to correct the problem.
The Packers have ranked near the bottom of the league in numerous special teams categories under McCarthy. In net punting, the Packers ranked 24th in 2008, 31st in 2009 and are 30th this year. In field goal percentage over the same three seasons, they ranked 27th, 25th and 21st. In kickoff returns, they ranked 31st, 19th and 24th. General Manager Ted Thompson, who has failed to supply McCarthy with a high-quality kickoff returner or veteran punter, bears some responsibility. Until the Packers make special teams a priority with actions rather than words, their problems will persist.
The Packers have failed miserably in close games under McCarthy over the past three seasons. They are 1-9 in games decided by three points or less, including 0-5 in overtime. Great teams thrive when the game is on the line. The Packers, meanwhile, have wilted under pressure.
The Packers are chronically slow starters under McCarthy. With the exception of 2007, they have stumbled to a .500 or worse record at the mid-point of every season. This year will be no different unless the Packers win their next two games.
Some will suggest McCarthys troubles began when quarterback Brett Favre departed. There is no denying Favre, who will lead the Vikings Sunday night against his old team, knew how to win close games and was capable of carrying a team on his back.
Aaron Rodgers, with a 20-19 career record and no playoff victories on his resume, still must prove he can do that. In taking over for Favre in Green Bay, Rodgers has proven to be a worthy successor on almost every level, except when it comes to pulling out tight games.
Trading Favre and elevating Rodgers two years ago was the correct move by Thompson and McCarthy. But its high time they gave their quarterback more help. He was sacked more than any other player last season, and this year the Packers rank No. 8 in sacks allowed.
Rodgers job is difficult enough without feeling that his health is in danger every time he drops back to pass.
Without a strong running game at his disposal, the pressure is on Rodgers to be nearly perfect every time the offense takes the field. The consistent special teams breakdowns and penalties only make matters worse.
Thats where McCarthy comes in. Winning only half his games over a two-year span isnt good enough. His team must eliminate the sloppiness and play smarter and crisper, and that needs to start now. The season is hanging in the balance.