Zero2Cool
14 years ago
http://packersnews.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20101023/PKR07/101023014/Mike-Vandermause-column-Critical-juncture-for-Packers-McCarthy 

Twenty-five months ago Mike McCarthy was riding high as head coach of the Green Bay Packers.

It was September 2008 and with two victories to open the season, the Packers under McCarthy had won 20 of their previous 24 games, a remarkable stretch of success that included a berth in the NFC championship game.

The Packers defeated Minnesota in their 2008 season opener to run McCarthys record of dominance over Vikings coach Brad Childress to 5-0. Life was good, victories flowed freely and the sky appeared to be the limit for McCarthys Packers.

But in the 37 games since, the Packers record has been a less than impressive 18-19. The Packers, who have lost three of their last four games, are desperate for a victory in Sunday nights crucial NFC North showdown against the Vikings at Lambeau Field. After serving as McCarthys doormat, Childress is seeking to turn the tables and claim his fourth consecutive victory over the Packers.

Both McCarthy and Childress are in their fifth season as head coaches. Both have 1-2 playoff records. Both ended recent seasons with overtime losses in the NFC title game. But McCarthys once commanding 9-game lead over Childress in overall record has slipped to 2 games (42-31 compared to 39-33).

McCarthys coaching resolve will be tested like never before in the coming month, with rugged road games at the New York Jets, Minnesota and Atlanta looming. Its the kind of brutal schedule that could send the Packers playoff hopes plummeting, or elevate the team once again to elite status.

Either way, the next five weeks could serve as a defining stretch in McCarthys tenure.

Can he guide the Packers back to the winning ways of his first 36 games as coach, when they were 24-12? Or is the current rut, in which the Packers have hovered at the .500 mark, indicative of things to come?

McCarthy directs highly organized practices and spells out in detail exactly what he wants to accomplish. That approach translated into almost immediate success when in his second year he led the Packers to within an eyelash of the Super Bowl.

But nothing has come easily since then. The Packers have developed some disturbing patterns under McCarthy that if left unchecked, will make consistent winning difficult to achieve:

The Packers have been one of the most penalized teams in the league under McCarthy. They were second in penalties in 2008, first in 2009 and rank seventh this year. Any excuse McCarthy makes about this deplorable trend is a bad one. The consistently high rate of mistakes is killing drives and losing games, and McCarthy has been unable to correct the problem.

The Packers have ranked near the bottom of the league in numerous special teams categories under McCarthy. In net punting, the Packers ranked 24th in 2008, 31st in 2009 and are 30th this year. In field goal percentage over the same three seasons, they ranked 27th, 25th and 21st. In kickoff returns, they ranked 31st, 19th and 24th. General Manager Ted Thompson, who has failed to supply McCarthy with a high-quality kickoff returner or veteran punter, bears some responsibility. Until the Packers make special teams a priority with actions rather than words, their problems will persist.

The Packers have failed miserably in close games under McCarthy over the past three seasons. They are 1-9 in games decided by three points or less, including 0-5 in overtime. Great teams thrive when the game is on the line. The Packers, meanwhile, have wilted under pressure.

The Packers are chronically slow starters under McCarthy. With the exception of 2007, they have stumbled to a .500 or worse record at the mid-point of every season. This year will be no different unless the Packers win their next two games.

Some will suggest McCarthys troubles began when quarterback Brett Favre departed. There is no denying Favre, who will lead the Vikings Sunday night against his old team, knew how to win close games and was capable of carrying a team on his back.

Aaron Rodgers, with a 20-19 career record and no playoff victories on his resume, still must prove he can do that. In taking over for Favre in Green Bay, Rodgers has proven to be a worthy successor on almost every level, except when it comes to pulling out tight games.

Trading Favre and elevating Rodgers two years ago was the correct move by Thompson and McCarthy. But its high time they gave their quarterback more help. He was sacked more than any other player last season, and this year the Packers rank No. 8 in sacks allowed.

Rodgers job is difficult enough without feeling that his health is in danger every time he drops back to pass.

Without a strong running game at his disposal, the pressure is on Rodgers to be nearly perfect every time the offense takes the field. The consistent special teams breakdowns and penalties only make matters worse.

Thats where McCarthy comes in. Winning only half his games over a two-year span isnt good enough. His team must eliminate the sloppiness and play smarter and crisper, and that needs to start now. The season is hanging in the balance.


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Zero2Cool
14 years ago
Big surprise, more statistical inconsistencies within an article and no explained reasoning behind it. Sometimes use only regular season, other use the playoff's too.
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tonyagnese
14 years ago
He makes some good points, this team has rarely beaten playoff caliber teams under McCarthy as well which is a bit disturbing.
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Zero2Cool
14 years ago

He makes some good points, this team has rarely beaten playoff caliber teams under McCarthy as well which is a bit disturbing.

"tonyagnese" wrote:



Do you have the research behind that statement? I'm not calling you out, just curious cuz I'd like to know myself what the wins/losses are.

And also, what do you count as beating a playoff caliber team? A team that was in the playoffs the year before, or the current year we played them?
UserPostedImage
14 years ago

He makes some good points, this team has rarely beaten playoff caliber teams under McCarthy as well which is a bit disturbing.

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



Do you have the research behind that statement? I'm not calling you out, just curious cuz I'd like to know myself what the wins/losses are.

And also, what do you count as beating a playoff caliber team? A team that was in the playoffs the year before, or the current year we played them?

"tonyagnese" wrote:

I was curious myself so i went and looked. Since 2007 we have won 8 games against teams who made the playoffs.

Edit: 8-9 since 2007. I missed the Falcons.
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all_about_da_packers
14 years ago
^cheeadheads, that number is totally meaningless unless we know the number of playoff teams we have faced in that same span.

I suspect that the winning percentage is not good, but if we have faced (for example) 12 playoff teams, then 8-4 is not all that terrible.

I do vividly remember that before beating the Cowboys last year, we had not beat a play-off caliber team for something close to a year. Beyond coaching, I'm starting to wonder if Ted is doing enough of a good job to get McCarthy talent that can contribute in the short term to team success. In other words, if the record against playoff competition is poor (which I fully suspect it is) then it's not just on McCarthy but also on Ted.

Edit - nevermind, I see you added that number.

8-8 is okay... but I suspect it is highly skewed by the run of success we had in the latter half of last year.
The NFL: Where Greg Jennings Happens.
tonyagnese
14 years ago

He makes some good points, this team has rarely beaten playoff caliber teams under McCarthy as well which is a bit disturbing.

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



Do you have the research behind that statement? I'm not calling you out, just curious cuz I'd like to know myself what the wins/losses are.

And also, what do you count as beating a playoff caliber team? A team that was in the playoffs the year before, or the current year we played them?

"tonyagnese" wrote:



To be honest, I was just going by memory so I looked up our record against teams that made the playoffs the year we played them since 2007...

2007:
Giants: W (35-13)
Chargers: W (31-24)
Redskins: W (17-14)
Cowboys: L (37-27)

2008:
Vikings: W (24-19)
Falcons: L (27-24)
Colts: W (34-14)
Titans: L (19-16)
Vikings: L (28-27)
Panthers: L (35-31)

2009:
Bengals: L (31-24)
Vikings: L (30-23)
Vikings: L (38-26)
Cowboys: W (17-7)
Ravens: W (27-14)
Cardinals: W (33-7)

So our record over the past 3 years against playoff teams is (8-8). Certainly not bad and probably the record of most teams against playoff teams. I was definitely surprised by the results, I seem to remember us struggling a lot more against quality competition but I was definitely wrong.
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Zero2Cool
14 years ago
Awesome job tony, I 5'd ya :)

I am kind of surprised too.
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Lynn_Dickey
14 years ago
I definitely think McCarthy is an average to good NFL coach, which is saying a lot. What I wonder is whether or not he's very good or great. This record of 8-8 against playoffs teams suggest he's not great. The question is whether or not he's good enough to win a Superbowl. Let me also predict that if we fire him and bring in an unkown name, odds are that person will be a worse coach (could be better, but doubtful). So here we sit.
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all_about_da_packers
14 years ago
L_D, I have been wondering for some time whether McCarthy would improve as a coach if he handed over playcalling duties to Philbin. That would leave McCarthy greater time to focus on the team overall, and perhaps become a better coach.
The NFL: Where Greg Jennings Happens.
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packerfanoutwest (58m) : both games Watson missed, Packers won
Martha Careful (2h) : I hope all of you have a Merry Christmas!
Mucky Tundra (12h) : Oh I know about Jacobs, I just couldn't pass up an opportunity to mimic Zero lol
buckeyepackfan (12h) : Jacobs was just sat down, Watson re-injured that knee that kept him out 1 game earlier
buckeyepackfan (12h) : I needed .14 that's. .14 points for the whole 4th quarter to win and go to the SB. Lol
Mucky Tundra (12h) : Jacobs gonna be OK???
Zero2Cool (12h) : Watson gonna be OK???
packerfanoutwest (16h) : Inactives tonight for the Pack: Alexander- knee Bullard - ankle Williams - quad Walker -ankle Monk Heath
packerfanoutwest (16h) : No Jaire, but hopefully the front 7 destroys the line of scrimmage & forces Rattler into a few passes to McKinney.
packerfanoutwest (16h) : minny could be #1 seed and the Lions #5 seed
Zero2Cool (19h) : We'd have same Division and Conference records. Strength of schedule we edge them
Zero2Cool (19h) : I just checked. What tie breaker?
bboystyle (19h) : yes its possible but unlikely. If we do get the 5th, we face the NFCS winner
Zero2Cool (19h) : Ahh, ok.
bboystyle (19h) : yes due to tie breaker
Zero2Cool (19h) : I mean, unlikely, yes, but mathematically, 5th is possible by what I'm reading.
Zero2Cool (19h) : If Vikings lose out, Packers win out, Packers get 5th, right?
bboystyle (19h) : Minny isnt going to lose out so 5th seed is out of the equation. We are playing for the 6th or 7th seed which makes no difference
Mucky Tundra (20h) : beast, the ad revenue goes to the broadcast company but they gotta pay to air the game on their channel/network
beast (20h) : If we win tonight the game is still relative in terms of 5th, 6th or 7th seed... win and it's 5th or 6th, lose and it's 6th or 7th
beast (20h) : Mucky, I thought the ad revenue went to the broadcasting companies or the NFL, at least not directly
Zero2Cool (21h) : I think the revenue share is moot, isn't it? That's the CBA an Salary Cap handling that.
bboystyle (21h) : i mean game becomes irrelevant if we win tonight. Just a game where we are trying to play spoilers to Vikings chance at the #1 seed
Mucky Tundra (21h) : beast, I would guess ad revenue from more eyes watching tv
Zero2Cool (21h) : I would think it would hurt the home team because people would have to cancel last minute maybe? i dunno
beast (21h) : I agree that it's BS for fans planning on going to the game. But how does it bring in more money? I'm guessing indirectly?
packerfanoutwest (22h) : bs on flexing the game....they do it for the $$league$$, not the hometown fans
Zero2Cool (22h) : I see what you did there Mucky
Zero2Cool (22h) : dammit. 3:25pm
Zero2Cool (22h) : Packers Vikings flexed to 3:35pm
Mucky Tundra (23h) : Upon receiving the news about Luke Musgrave, I immediately fell to the ground
Mucky Tundra (23h) : Yeah baby!
Zero2Cool (23h) : LUKE MUSGRAVE PLAYING TONIGHT~!~~~~WOWHOAAOHAOAA yah
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I wanna kill new QB's ... blitz the crap out of them.
beast (23-Dec) : Barry seemed to get too conservative against new QBs, Hafley doesn't have that issue
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : However, we seem to struggle vs new QB's
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Should be moot point, cuz Packers should win tonight.
packerfanoutwest (23-Dec) : ok I stand corrected
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Ok, yes, you are right. I see that now how they get 7th
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : 5th - Packers win out, Vikings lose out. Maybe?
beast (23-Dec) : Saying no to the 6th lock.
beast (23-Dec) : No, with the Commanders beating the Eagles, Packers could have a good chance of 6th or 7th unless the win out
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I think if Packers win, they are locked 6th with chance for 5th.
beast (23-Dec) : But it doesn't matter, as the Packers win surely win one of their remaining games
beast (23-Dec) : This is not complex, just someone doesn't want to believe reality
beast (23-Dec) : We already have told you... if Packers lose all their games (they won't, but if they did), and Buccaneers and Falcons win all theirs
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I posted it in that Packers and 1 seed thread
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : I literally just said it.
packerfanoutwest (23-Dec) : show us a scenario where Pack don't get in? bet you can't
Zero2Cool (23-Dec) : Falcons, Buccaneers would need to win final two games.
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