Zero2Cool
14 years ago
http://packersnews.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20101019/PKR01/101019147/Analysis-Cause-for-worry-in-Rodgers-weak-streak- 

Six games into the 1994 season, Brett Favre was nearing one of the low points of his career.

He was in his third season as the Green Bay Packers starting quarterback, so no longer a newbie on the job, but his team was scuffling at 3-3, and his passer rating was a mediocre 81.2 points. A week later, after a loss at Minnesota that Favre was unable to finish because of an injured hip, then-coach Mike Holmgren went so far as polling his assistant coaches: Should he bench his erratic starter for Mark Brunell? Several advocated the move.

Here we are six games into 2010, and Aaron Rodgers, who also is six games into his third season as the Packers starting quarterback, isnt playing well. The Packers are 3-3, and his passer rating is 87.9 points, which ranks No. 13 in the NFL.

Clearly, nobodys kicking around the idea of benching Rodgers, but hes been far from the potential MVP candidate who looked so dominant in the preseason. Hes directing an offense that bears most of the responsibility for the Packers three defeats. It hasnt been anything like the machine that finished last season No. 3 in the NFL in points scored and No. 6 in yards.

Theres also the issue of Rodgers poor record in games decided by four points or less. Three of those losses were this year, including in overtime to Washington and Miami, games in which the Packers had the ball with the chance to win in sudden death.

So whats going on with the player who went to his first Pro Bowl last year?

Well, when compared with Favre and the top three quarterbacks in the league Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees in the first six games of their third seasons as starters, Rodgers start doesnt mean much. The record in close games is more puzzling.

Rodgers 87.9 passer rating after six games rates third in that group at the same point in their careers, ahead of Favre (81.2) and Brady (72.0), but behind Manning (94.6) and Brees (98.3).

Like Rodgers and Favre, Brees was 3-3 after six games; Manning and Brady were 4-2.

It also bears mentioning how their seasons panned out. All four went to the playoffs, but with varying results: Brady won the Super Bowl (in 2003); Favre won a playoff game then lost a blowout in Dallas in the divisional round (in 94); and Manning (in 2000) and Brees (in 04) lost in the first round.

Favre finished with a 90.7 passer rating (33 touchdown passes, 14 interceptions) and carried the offense the second half of that year.

Bradys Patriots won 13 straight games, and he pushed up his passer rating to 85.7 points (28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions).

Manning finished with a 90.7 rating and 10-6 record but lost in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight year.

Brees finished 12-4 but then lost in overtime to the New York Jets in the wild-card round.

The difference among them is the close games, where Rodgers is 1-11 in games decided by four points or less. Of that group, only Brees at 2-6 was under .500 at the same point in his career.

Brady, on the other hand, already had set incredible standards with his 7-0 record (including playoffs) and would be 12-0 by the end of that season. Favre was 7-3 up to that point, and Manning 6-5.

So how do you explain a 1-11 mark for a quarterback whose 103.2 passer rating last year ranked fourth in the NFL?

One factor is that the first seven losses came in 2008, when Rodgers was learning the NFLs ropes as a first-year starter. He didnt come through with late scores in four of those losses, but he gave the Packers a chance in the three others.

In a one-point loss to Minnesota, Mason Crosby missed a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds; in an overtime loss to Chicago, Crosbys 38-yarder was blocked with 18 seconds left in regulation; and against Houston, Rodgers took the Packers to the game-tying touchdown with 5:56 left, but then watched the Texans slowly drive to the game-winning field goal on the final play.

A little help in those games, and his record wouldnt look quite so bad.

What must bother Rodgers and the Packers more is the three overtime losses starting with the NFC wild-card game at Arizona last year. In all three, including at Washington and against Miami the last two weeks, the Packers had the ball in overtime but failed to gain even a first down. Thats when good quarterbacks and offenses have to come through.

So whats going on?

Could it be coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers are trying too hard to be the anti-Favre? Are they playing a little too carefully after watching the disastrous Favre interceptions over the years?

Yes, Favre undoubtedly leaned toward the extreme, but he still won more games than he lost with those remarkable and dangerous tight-fit ropes he threw. There still are times when a quarterback must take a chance if hes going to make the plays that win games.

Maybe its something else: the play calling or a personal trait, either inherent or learned. Or maybe in five years the issue will be no more.

But the Packers must be wondering. They also know whether theyre going to do anything this year, considering their injuries, they need Rodgers to play like an elite quarterback, and soon.

As Favre and, to a lesser degree, Manning, Brady and Brees showed in their third years as starters, a middling start to a season can turn around. Rodgers showed more than enough ability last year to suggest he could take off at any time.

The challenge has grown with the loss of his running game (i.e., halfback Ryan Grant) in the opener and best weapon (tight end Jermichael Finley) two weeks ago, but the best players usually find a way.


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Porforis
14 years ago
He isn't playing as well as he did last year, but the major reasons behind the QB rating which they seem to be so hot on...

1. More INTs. Two at the very end of halves, most of the rest while playing from behind. Does the latter reflect poorly on Rodgers? Yes.
2. A LOT of dropped passes
3. Magical collapsing pockets

Also, throwing balls into triple coverage like Burt used to do when he was behind is all fine and dandy if your receivers will reliably catch the balls when it hits them in the hands. There's no defense for the perfect pass except a WR with flubber gloves.
Zero2Cool
14 years ago
or

Rodgers just doesn't have what it takes to win close games. (Bears game last year, sure, but even a broke clock is right twice a day)

Before Rodgers started a game, I had felt he'd be more of a game manager than game winner. I felt he wouldn't be why we won, but he wouldn't be why we'd lose and that we had to have a really good team around him to be successful. Basically that he was more likely to throw a TD than an INT, but the TD was unlikely.

I don't think Rodgers is why we are losing close games, but I do believe he's why we didn't win. Meaning, I think he could have played better in some of those close games that would have turned the tide in our favor.

The last three over time games where our offense didn't even net a first down ... that's terrible.


Maybe the coach isn't sending in the right plays to help his players succeed?

I don't know. I do think my assessment of Rodgers before he started is wrong, but I'm thinking that's more hope than anything. All excuses aside, he needs to man up in the pocket and stop emulating Brian Brohm's happy feet dance.

Bulaga for Clifton
Lang for Tauscher

The future is now.
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Greg C.
14 years ago
This is an article that needed to be written, and Dougherty is very fair to Rodgers here. But unless Aaron starts showing a little more moxie in crunch time, there are going to be more articles by more people, and they are not all going to be so fair.

I like Aaron a lot, but I have yet to develop any kind of confidence in his ability to lead his team to a game-winning score. I think a lot of fans feel that way, and you have to wonder if his teammates have some doubts as well.

I still think Aaron will be okay, but this is a part of his game that is not quite there yet, and it needs to get there soon.
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bozz_2006
14 years ago
I'm getting really sick of seeing him do the "awe shucks" finger-snap thing after missing his receivers. I know he's got this "California-cool" thing going on or whatever, but I'm more than ready to see a little fire in his eyes and McCarthy's eyes. Maybe they aren't the type of people to get fired-up (the blank stares on their faces I see would seem to attest to this fact), but as the head coach and QB go, so goes the team. Most guys need a little fire, and if they don't see it from their HC and QB, they'll be hard pressed to get it going themselves.

And now you can cue Ironman and Nonstopdrivel coming in here and saying, "For the money they get paid, they should damn well be able to get themselves fired up". I won't disagree that they should be able to, but the fact is that they usually don't. A little fire and urgency from our HC and QB, PLEASE!
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musccy
14 years ago
I think you put it well, Greg, and I feel the same way.

With that said, it's difficult for a fan to discern where all blame lies. Drops and bad line play are easy to spot, but a wide open WR that he doesn't see, someone running the wrong route, how well the playcalls are exploiting match-ups...stuff like that factors into the equation as well but is hard for us to 'analyze.'

I have complete confidence that AR can be a great qb and lead the team to victories, but the sputtering offense undoubtedly has to be blamed on him, just how much so is difficult to say.
Zero2Cool
14 years ago
Every QB misses an open wide out from time to time. Even Brady, even Manning, even Brees.
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bozz_2006
14 years ago
I know that. And you know that I know that.
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warhawk
14 years ago
What I see often late in games is Rodgers is rarely given enough time to be comfortable back there. He is almost always pressured quickly and often from someone coming in untouched.

He doesn't need as much time as most QB's but he does need some time and when it gets to crunch time the Oline is getting beat out there far to often.

How many games have we seen where our last offensive play is with him on his back after running for his life out there?
"The train is leaving the station."
Zero2Cool
14 years ago
running the ball gives the offensive line more life.
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