i think drivers gonna do better than you have him, apparently he feels great compared to the last few years due to his leg injury, but i can see why hed drop down due to age.

Driver's numbers drop due to the emergence of Finley. There is only so much pie everyone can have.

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I 3rd it , surprised nothing on Jordy. IMO Jones and Jordy are important to our present, 3 and 4 receiver sets, and our future. This is more important if Driver doesn't come back better. Hopefully his knees allow him to do so. He also has to cut down on his drops from last year.

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These stats are interesting, at least they give you something to ponder in this slow time of the year.

Based on your projections Porky, it would seem that last year was an extraordinary year from A-Rod. In fact, it would seem the projections indicate that our offense as a whole isn't as dynamic as it was last year.

I'm intrigued as to the limits of your projection, though. Can you do projections for things like completion percentage? Or most intriguing of all, although no doubt much more difficult (even improbable?), would be projecting the performance of the O-line.

I guess what I'm intrigued with is trying to get at why the projections indicate the Packers O and Rodgers decreasing from their output last year. I'd think having been together a few years, having healthy solid Tackles, and most of all Rodgers entering the prime of his career with a heck of a lot of practice and game reps in this system indicate to me that the best is still yet to come.

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That's a good point.

And this is not just in Porky's prediction, but just about everyone's that I've seen. Rodgers' TDs and yards go down slightly, while his ints go up by as much as 100%.

Nearly everyone seems to be using a combination of 2008 and 2009 and then going with the averages, rather than continuing the line of improvement. We'll see which way it goes.

My projections are basically about telling the person to select Player A over Player B. The stats are the reason why you should select Player A over Player B.

Stats are just stats. They mean a lot in fantasy football, which these are for, but they don't define the player IMO. You have to separate fantasy from reality. I think Rodgers will be better this year. His numbers just might not be.

Last year was an amazing season for offenses. I think it's going to be tough for most teams to duplicate their offensive output from last season. I have Favre's numbers coming back to earth a little bit. I have Romo throwing more than 9 INTs. I have Brees throwing fewer touchdowns. Manning is really the only consistent QB, but get this, he's No. 4 in total points behind Rodgers, Brees, and Rivers.

Defenses always catch up too.

Yes I project completion percentage. No I don't take into account the play of the offensive line. I look at the individuals because it's fantasy football. The line is a unit. My numbers are also not averages for Rodgers or that's not how I did it.

29 TDs and 10 INTs with over 4,000-plus yards is ridiculous. I think it's more likely to see that, than I think it's likely you'll see Rodgers' touchdowns go up with INTs remaining the same or dropping. I apply this logic to games played as well. Matt Schaub played in every game last year. His numbers say he should be a top five and maybe top three fantasy QB. However, the trend says he won't play in every game. The trend says he's much more likely to play 14 games than 16. I give him a 14 game projection and he's No. 7 overall instead.

You also have to remember that in reality, football is a situational sport. Rodgers threw for 2,179 yards over the final eight games last season. He threw 14 touchdowns.

GBs record was 7-1.

He threw 2255 yards and 16 touchdowns in the first half of the season.

GBs record was 4-4.

Part of that was GB playing catchup and part of that was playcalling. Still, it's a direct indicator that you shouldn't take these numbers as a prelude to what you may expect out of the Packers this year.

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By popular demand....



This is over 16 games. He projects at about 14 yards per reception. That's a lot YAC or he'll be involved in more plays down the field.

For the record. Based on trend, there is no way all five receiving threats play in every game this year. Someone will go down, which obviously effects these numbers. My guess is it's highly unlikely that both James Jones and Jordy Nelson stay healthy over the course of the season. Both seem to be a little more prone to injury and Nelson is also probably going to play special teams, which leaves him even more vulnerable.

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Rodgers will throw for 5,085 yards in 2010

That all important "Last Yard" will be from extra effort, from a Jennings spin move on the last play of the regular season.

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RP - That can be taken another way.

Throwing for 5000 yards often means the enemy is either still in the game or has the lead and we're playing catch up. I'd much rather see Aaron throw for 4000 yards and Grant getting 18 rushing TDs. The latter stats are more like the stats for a 14-2 team.

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Or a team that plays to their strengths, rather than play chicken football when they get in front.