Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago

Packers struggle to close out close victories
 
Associated Press
Published: Dec. 2, 2010 at 12:48 a.m. Updated: Dec. 3, 2010 at 07:55 a.m.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- At first glance, it seems like a harsh indictment of Aaron Rodgers' ability to win close games: Since he took over as the starting quarterback in 2008, the Green Bay Packers are 2-12 in games decided by four or fewer points.

A closer look shows that Sunday's loss at Atlanta wasn't the first time Rodgers successfully led a late-game Packers comeback, only to watch it turn into a loss. Each of the Packers' four losses this season was by three points, despite some strong fourth-quarter drives by Rodgers and the offense.

Rodgers has heard the criticism that he hasn't yet found his fourth-quarter quarterbacking mojo, but he says it doesn't bother him.

"It really doesn't," Rodgers said. "That's a stat that gets thrown out there. I'm trying to win games. (Twelve) of my 19 losses are by four points or less. Some people look at that as a negative. Well, we've been competitive in every game. How many times have we been blown out?"

Not many, but Rodgers probably has to pull off a few more memorable fourth-quarter wins to make that stat go away.

And more important, the Packers' special teams and defense have to perform better.

In nine of the Packers' 12 close losses since 2008, Rodgers and the offense drove for a touchdown or field goal to either tie the score or take the lead at some point in the fourth quarter -- but the Packers still lost. In the other three, the Packers were in position to kick a decisive field goal, but they missed or it was blocked.

Most of those games came in 2008, leading to the dismissal of most of the Packers' defensive coaching staff. But it has become an issue again this season.

With the Packers trailing by seven Sunday at Atlanta, Rodgers executed a masterful 16-play, 90-yard drive that included a pair of fourth-down conversions -- including a 10-yard touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson on fourth-and-goal to tie the score with 56 seconds remaining.

"I have never seen a quarterback, in my time here, play to that level in the passing game," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said this week. "I'll make that statement clearly here."

But the Packers' special teams promptly gave up a big kick return and committed a personal foul, giving the ball back to the Falcons near midfield. The defense couldn't hold, and Atlanta kicked the game-winning field goal with nine seconds left.

"We've done that a few times this season," Rodgers said. "When we've had to have a drive, we've been able to come up with a big drive, and, unfortunately, we've come up on the short end of a couple of those games. There's an urgency level that is there.

"I think when adversity hits this team, it's the thing I'm most proud of: We meet it head-on, and we've been able to make some plays in those situations. I think the urgency needs to be there a little bit more. Obviously, every play in the game."

Rodgers took the blame for his fumble on an attempted quarterback sneak near the goal line in the second quarter.

"I told the guys before the game last week: I said, 'It's going to be a 60-minute game, and it could be a play that happens in the first, second, third or fourth quarter that wins the game or loses the game,'" Rodgers said. "And, unfortunately, I was foreshadowing a play in the second quarter that possibly could have cost us the game. But, unfortunately, you never know when that play is going to be."

When it comes to winning close games, McCarthy said there isn't one specific thing holding the Packers back.

"You don't line up on Sunday afternoon and you're given one opportunity to win the game," McCarthy said. "There's hundreds of different types of opportunities that go on inside that game, and you can break it down by play. Did you win the play or did you lose the play? And when you're winning 60 percent-plus of your plays, you should be winning those games. There was a lot of offensive production this past week, but the bottom line is we didn't get in the end zone enough."


UserPostedImage
Greg C.
13 years ago
This is a good article, and it did not even mention the ironic fact that if Rodgers had not led that late TD drive in Atlanta, the Packers would've lost by seven points and therefore the game would not have made the list of "close" games that the Packers have lost with Rodgers at the helm.
blank
Stevetarded
13 years ago
I want to know who the fuck decided 4 points or less is the standard for a close game. That is such a remarkably stupid stat. Lets consider a QB who is losing by 1 point throwing a game winning TD NOT winning a close game but a QB throwing a pick 6 when they are up by 10 points winning a close game. Not to mention it's a complete team stat and doesn't even measure the quarterbacks actual performance in the game.

Here is an interesting comparison that rates QBs actual performances in comeback situations compared to how other QBs perform.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency 
Rodgers rates 5th.
blank
13 years ago

"It really doesn't," Rodgers said. "That's a stat that gets thrown out there. I'm trying to win games. (Twelve) of my 19 losses are by four points or less. Some people look at that as a negative. Well, we've been competitive in every game. How many times have we been blown out?"

This exact thought came to mind when i watched Brees get spanked by the browns, Peyton Manning get destroyed by the Chargers, when i watched Rivers get beat down by the Raiders.

All i kept thinking was thank you Packers for keeping games close, competitive, and exciting.

Sure I want to the Packers to win those close games but i would take getting beat in a nail biter 100 times over seeing my team get killed.

I think many of us fans look way passed this. We are criticizing Rodgers for not being able to win the close games. But on the other side we can also be thanking him for keeping the games close and exciting.
UserPostedImage
Greg C.
13 years ago

I want to know who the fuck decided 4 points or less is the standard for a close game. That is such a remarkably stupid stat. Lets consider a QB who is losing by 1 point throwing a game winning TD NOT winning a close game but a QB throwing a pick 6 when they are up by 10 points winning a close game. Not to mention it's a complete team stat and doesn't even measure the quarterbacks actual performance in the game.

Here is an interesting comparison that rates QBs actual performances in comeback situations compared to how other QBs perform.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency 
Rodgers rates 5th.

"Stevetarded" wrote:



That is a fascinating article. It looks like we finally have a way to measure clutch performance. I gave up on the traditional "fourth quarter comeback" number back around 2001 when Allen Rossum returned a punt for a game-winning TD and Favre got credit for a fourth quarter comeback. One of the big reasons I soured on Favre was his shaky performance in the clutch. His rating in this article was even lower than I would have expected. And Rodgers' rating is much higher than expected. I thought he would be about average.
blank
Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago
Permit me to thumb my nose once again at all the idiots who mindlessly parrot the mantra: "If I had to have one quarterback in the league with two minutes to go, I'd take Brett Favre." I've known for so many years it wasn't true, but it's nice to finally the numbers to back it up.

After [Jason] Campbell, the players with the largest negative differentials are two superstars with reputations for big mistakes in big moments: Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre. McNabb (0.94, 39th) and Favre (0.93, 40th) both have ACE ratings that confirm their below-average performance in clutch situations. The peak of Favre's career (1995-97) is cut off by the 1998 start date for the our data, but with by far the most comeback opportunities (187) of anyone on the list, there are no issues with data credibility for Favre (his personal credibility is a separate debate).



This was written in February 2010, long before his meltdown of this season. Imagine how bad his numbers must look now.
UserPostedImage
peteralan71
13 years ago
I think a lot of it has to do with the D, the ST, and the playcalling and clock management. There are many times that we get the tie or the go-ahead with 1-3 minutes left. For a lot of teams, that is too much time. Teams these days have become too efficient and talented with the 2-minute drills. They bring in different offensive sets that are not seen throughout the game, they go no-huddle, etc. etc. etc. Teams more often than not are good at the 2-minute drill. That's the case against the Packers anyway. And I wouldn't put that 100% on the defense, as our D has shown to be more than sufficient this season.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago
This exchange from the comments section made me laugh, so I thought I'd share it here:

I never take the time to comment on anything, but this was one of the most enlightening and interesting articles I've ever read on this site. I thoroughly enjoyed it, excellent work.

Perhaps though, for the sake of catching on with a network you should look into incorporating how much fun a quarterback is having during those comeback drives into your formula. Announcers will continue to spout off about how clutch Favre is no matter what, you might as well give them what they're looking for.

"Random (not verified)" wrote:



Coming soon to stat lines near you, Defense-Adjusted F-HOT - Fun Had Out There.

"Mystyc" wrote:



And I don't think that drives that fail because of "gunslinging" should count as failed drives.

"ChrisZ" wrote:


UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
Martha Careful (7h) : Z, could you please combine my thread with yours please. I obviously did not see it when I Created it
Martha Careful (10h) : Re: 'Kool-Aid' McKinstry. Other than Icky Woods, has there ever been a good NFLer with a childish nickname?
Martha Careful (11h) : Packers looking to trade up
Martha Careful (14h) : Flag?
Martha Careful (14h) : Sag?
Nonstopdrivel (14h) : It rhymes with "bag."
beast (26-Apr) : Family? That's Deadpool's F word
Nonstopdrivel (26-Apr) : Not THAT f-word.
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : fuck
beast (25-Apr) : 49ers are Cap Tight
beast (25-Apr) : Fuck
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : Kanata, I will be when I'm on my lunch later
TheKanataThrilla (25-Apr) : Love you NSD
Nonstopdrivel (25-Apr) : Huh. I guess the F-word is censored in this fan shout.
Nonstopdrivel (25-Apr) : Anyone who doesn't hang out in the chat probably smokes pole.
TheKanataThrilla (25-Apr) : GoPackGo Thinking CB is the pick tonight
TheKanataThrilla (25-Apr) : Anyone hanging out in the chat tonight?
Zero2Cool (25-Apr) : whoa...49ers have had trade conversations about both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk
Zero2Cool (25-Apr) : I hope they take a Punter at 9th overall. Be bold!
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : I may end up eating those words but I think they need a lot more talent then their 4 picks can provide
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : I really hope they stand pat and Draft a WR
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : @DMRussini
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : The Chicago Bears are very open for business at 9 and telling teams they are ready to move for the right price, per source
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : Lions extend Penei Soul 4yrs - 112mil
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : Lions extend St. Brown 4 years 120mil and
Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : Now look, trading up to 13 to take a TE might not seem like a good idea later but it will be later!
dfosterf (24-Apr) : (Your trade up mock post)
dfosterf (24-Apr) : Mucky- The only thing fun to watch would be me flipping the f out if Gute goes up to 13 and grabs Brock Bowers, lol
beast (24-Apr) : DT Byron Murphy II, Texas... whom some believe is the next Aaron Donald (or the closest thing to Donald)
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : What? And who?
Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : *sad Mucky noises*
Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : @JoeJHoyt Murphy said he’s been told he won’t slide past pick No. 16.
wpr (23-Apr) : Just about time to watch Sonny Weaver stick it to the seahags. I never get tired of it.
Martha Careful (23-Apr) : *game plan
Martha Careful (23-Apr) : IMHO, not even close. He is not a guy you game play around.
Mucky Tundra (23-Apr) : is Aiyuk worth a 1st rounder?
Zero2Cool (23-Apr) : 49ers are seeking a 1st round pick in exchange for WR Brandon Aiyuk
Mucky Tundra (22-Apr) : Based on Gutes comments, now I don't feel as silly having 13 picks in my mock the other day
Zero2Cool (22-Apr) : Zach Wilson to Broncos.
Zero2Cool (22-Apr) : Gutekunst says he'd love to have 13 or 14 picks. He's trading back huh lol
beast (22-Apr) : Someday we'll have a draft betting scandal
beast (21-Apr) : Sometimes looking extremely amazing, sometimes looking extremely lost
beast (21-Apr) : I haven't looked into the QBs, but some have suggested Maye has some of the most extremely inconsistent tape they've seen
beast (21-Apr) : Well it also sounds like Patriots are listening to trade offers, not that seriously considering any, but listening means they aren't locked
Zero2Cool (21-Apr) : Maye needs to be AFC
Mucky Tundra (21-Apr) : Not liking the idea of the Vikings getting Maye
Zero2Cool (21-Apr) : Vikings HC joked that he may or may not have sent flowers to Bob Kraft. That's where rumor came from.
beast (21-Apr) : Can't tell if this is real or BS, but some rumors about a possible Patriots/Vikings trade for #3 overall
dfosterf (21-Apr) : One playbook to my knowledge. I was shooting for facetious.
beast (20-Apr) : I'm not sure they have different playbooks for different OL positions, and Dillard run blocking is supposedly worse than his pass blocking..
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2023 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 10 @ 3:25 PM
Bears
Sunday, Sep 17 @ 12:00 PM
Falcons
Sunday, Sep 24 @ 12:00 PM
SAINTS
Thursday, Sep 28 @ 7:15 PM
LIONS
Monday, Oct 9 @ 7:15 PM
Raiders
Sunday, Oct 22 @ 3:25 PM
Broncos
Sunday, Oct 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Nov 5 @ 12:00 PM
RAMS
Sunday, Nov 12 @ 12:00 PM
Steelers
Sunday, Nov 19 @ 12:00 PM
CHARGERS
Thursday, Nov 23 @ 11:30 AM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 3 @ 7:20 PM
CHIEFS
Monday, Dec 11 @ 7:15 PM
Giants
Sunday, Dec 17 @ 12:00 PM
BUCCANEERS
Sunday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM
Panthers
Sunday, Dec 31 @ 7:20 PM
Vikings
Sunday, Jan 7 @ 3:25 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Jan 14 @ 3:30 PM
Cowboys
Saturday, Jan 20 @ 7:15 PM
49ers
Recent Topics
9m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

21m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

33m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

57m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

7h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

7h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

10h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

11h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

20h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

26-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Nonstopdrivel

25-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

25-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / buckeyepackfan

25-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

24-Apr / Random Babble / beast

22-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.