Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago

Packers struggle to close out close victories
 
Associated Press
Published: Dec. 2, 2010 at 12:48 a.m. Updated: Dec. 3, 2010 at 07:55 a.m.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- At first glance, it seems like a harsh indictment of Aaron Rodgers' ability to win close games: Since he took over as the starting quarterback in 2008, the Green Bay Packers are 2-12 in games decided by four or fewer points.

A closer look shows that Sunday's loss at Atlanta wasn't the first time Rodgers successfully led a late-game Packers comeback, only to watch it turn into a loss. Each of the Packers' four losses this season was by three points, despite some strong fourth-quarter drives by Rodgers and the offense.

Rodgers has heard the criticism that he hasn't yet found his fourth-quarter quarterbacking mojo, but he says it doesn't bother him.

"It really doesn't," Rodgers said. "That's a stat that gets thrown out there. I'm trying to win games. (Twelve) of my 19 losses are by four points or less. Some people look at that as a negative. Well, we've been competitive in every game. How many times have we been blown out?"

Not many, but Rodgers probably has to pull off a few more memorable fourth-quarter wins to make that stat go away.

And more important, the Packers' special teams and defense have to perform better.

In nine of the Packers' 12 close losses since 2008, Rodgers and the offense drove for a touchdown or field goal to either tie the score or take the lead at some point in the fourth quarter -- but the Packers still lost. In the other three, the Packers were in position to kick a decisive field goal, but they missed or it was blocked.

Most of those games came in 2008, leading to the dismissal of most of the Packers' defensive coaching staff. But it has become an issue again this season.

With the Packers trailing by seven Sunday at Atlanta, Rodgers executed a masterful 16-play, 90-yard drive that included a pair of fourth-down conversions -- including a 10-yard touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson on fourth-and-goal to tie the score with 56 seconds remaining.

"I have never seen a quarterback, in my time here, play to that level in the passing game," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said this week. "I'll make that statement clearly here."

But the Packers' special teams promptly gave up a big kick return and committed a personal foul, giving the ball back to the Falcons near midfield. The defense couldn't hold, and Atlanta kicked the game-winning field goal with nine seconds left.

"We've done that a few times this season," Rodgers said. "When we've had to have a drive, we've been able to come up with a big drive, and, unfortunately, we've come up on the short end of a couple of those games. There's an urgency level that is there.

"I think when adversity hits this team, it's the thing I'm most proud of: We meet it head-on, and we've been able to make some plays in those situations. I think the urgency needs to be there a little bit more. Obviously, every play in the game."

Rodgers took the blame for his fumble on an attempted quarterback sneak near the goal line in the second quarter.

"I told the guys before the game last week: I said, 'It's going to be a 60-minute game, and it could be a play that happens in the first, second, third or fourth quarter that wins the game or loses the game,'" Rodgers said. "And, unfortunately, I was foreshadowing a play in the second quarter that possibly could have cost us the game. But, unfortunately, you never know when that play is going to be."

When it comes to winning close games, McCarthy said there isn't one specific thing holding the Packers back.

"You don't line up on Sunday afternoon and you're given one opportunity to win the game," McCarthy said. "There's hundreds of different types of opportunities that go on inside that game, and you can break it down by play. Did you win the play or did you lose the play? And when you're winning 60 percent-plus of your plays, you should be winning those games. There was a lot of offensive production this past week, but the bottom line is we didn't get in the end zone enough."


UserPostedImage
Greg C.
13 years ago
This is a good article, and it did not even mention the ironic fact that if Rodgers had not led that late TD drive in Atlanta, the Packers would've lost by seven points and therefore the game would not have made the list of "close" games that the Packers have lost with Rodgers at the helm.
blank
Stevetarded
13 years ago
I want to know who the fuck decided 4 points or less is the standard for a close game. That is such a remarkably stupid stat. Lets consider a QB who is losing by 1 point throwing a game winning TD NOT winning a close game but a QB throwing a pick 6 when they are up by 10 points winning a close game. Not to mention it's a complete team stat and doesn't even measure the quarterbacks actual performance in the game.

Here is an interesting comparison that rates QBs actual performances in comeback situations compared to how other QBs perform.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency 
Rodgers rates 5th.
blank
13 years ago

"It really doesn't," Rodgers said. "That's a stat that gets thrown out there. I'm trying to win games. (Twelve) of my 19 losses are by four points or less. Some people look at that as a negative. Well, we've been competitive in every game. How many times have we been blown out?"

This exact thought came to mind when i watched Brees get spanked by the browns, Peyton Manning get destroyed by the Chargers, when i watched Rivers get beat down by the Raiders.

All i kept thinking was thank you Packers for keeping games close, competitive, and exciting.

Sure I want to the Packers to win those close games but i would take getting beat in a nail biter 100 times over seeing my team get killed.

I think many of us fans look way passed this. We are criticizing Rodgers for not being able to win the close games. But on the other side we can also be thanking him for keeping the games close and exciting.
UserPostedImage
Greg C.
13 years ago

I want to know who the fuck decided 4 points or less is the standard for a close game. That is such a remarkably stupid stat. Lets consider a QB who is losing by 1 point throwing a game winning TD NOT winning a close game but a QB throwing a pick 6 when they are up by 10 points winning a close game. Not to mention it's a complete team stat and doesn't even measure the quarterbacks actual performance in the game.

Here is an interesting comparison that rates QBs actual performances in comeback situations compared to how other QBs perform.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency 
Rodgers rates 5th.

"Stevetarded" wrote:



That is a fascinating article. It looks like we finally have a way to measure clutch performance. I gave up on the traditional "fourth quarter comeback" number back around 2001 when Allen Rossum returned a punt for a game-winning TD and Favre got credit for a fourth quarter comeback. One of the big reasons I soured on Favre was his shaky performance in the clutch. His rating in this article was even lower than I would have expected. And Rodgers' rating is much higher than expected. I thought he would be about average.
blank
Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago
Permit me to thumb my nose once again at all the idiots who mindlessly parrot the mantra: "If I had to have one quarterback in the league with two minutes to go, I'd take Brett Favre." I've known for so many years it wasn't true, but it's nice to finally the numbers to back it up.

After [Jason] Campbell, the players with the largest negative differentials are two superstars with reputations for big mistakes in big moments: Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre. McNabb (0.94, 39th) and Favre (0.93, 40th) both have ACE ratings that confirm their below-average performance in clutch situations. The peak of Favre's career (1995-97) is cut off by the 1998 start date for the our data, but with by far the most comeback opportunities (187) of anyone on the list, there are no issues with data credibility for Favre (his personal credibility is a separate debate).



This was written in February 2010, long before his meltdown of this season. Imagine how bad his numbers must look now.
UserPostedImage
peteralan71
13 years ago
I think a lot of it has to do with the D, the ST, and the playcalling and clock management. There are many times that we get the tie or the go-ahead with 1-3 minutes left. For a lot of teams, that is too much time. Teams these days have become too efficient and talented with the 2-minute drills. They bring in different offensive sets that are not seen throughout the game, they go no-huddle, etc. etc. etc. Teams more often than not are good at the 2-minute drill. That's the case against the Packers anyway. And I wouldn't put that 100% on the defense, as our D has shown to be more than sufficient this season.
Green Bay: Home of the Green & Gold. And the hunter orange. And the camouflage.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago
This exchange from the comments section made me laugh, so I thought I'd share it here:

I never take the time to comment on anything, but this was one of the most enlightening and interesting articles I've ever read on this site. I thoroughly enjoyed it, excellent work.

Perhaps though, for the sake of catching on with a network you should look into incorporating how much fun a quarterback is having during those comeback drives into your formula. Announcers will continue to spout off about how clutch Favre is no matter what, you might as well give them what they're looking for.

"Random (not verified)" wrote:



Coming soon to stat lines near you, Defense-Adjusted F-HOT - Fun Had Out There.

"Mystyc" wrote:



And I don't think that drives that fail because of "gunslinging" should count as failed drives.

"ChrisZ" wrote:


UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (25m) : Packers go about evaluating their "best five," OL coach Luke Butkus makes on thing clear: "Josh Myers is our center."
beast (3h) : Though I'm a bit surprised letting go of CBs, I thought we needed more not less
beast (3h) : It was confusing with two DB Anthony Johnson anyways
Zero2Cool (6h) : Packers actually had Ray Lewis on the phone.
Zero2Cool (6h) : Packers wanted to draft Ray Lewis. Ravens stole him.
Martha Careful (6-May) : Happy 93rd Birthday to the Greatest Baseball Player of All-Time...Willie Mays
Zero2Cool (6-May) : Walter Stanely's son
buckeyepackfan (6-May) : and released CB Anthony Johnson and DL Deandre Johnson and waived/injured WR Thyrick Pitts (thigh-rick).
buckeyepackfan (6-May) : The Green Bay Packers have signed WR Julian Hicks, OL Lecitus Smith (luh-SEET-us) and WR Dimitri Stanley
Zero2Cool (6-May) : Petty, but it's annoying me how the NFL is making the schedule release an event.
Mucky Tundra (4-May) : @mattschneidman Matt LaFleur on how he tore his pec: “Got in a fight with the bench press. I lost.”
Zero2Cool (3-May) : Jordan Love CAN sign an extension as of today. Might tak weeks/months though
TheKanataThrilla (3-May) : Packers decline 5th year option for Stokes
Mucky Tundra (3-May) : @ProFootballTalk Jaylen Warren: Steelers' special teams coach has discussed Justin Fields returning kicks.
Zero2Cool (2-May) : Season officially ending tonight for Bucks ... sad face
Zero2Cool (2-May) : Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as out for tonight's game.
dfosterf (2-May) : Surprisingly low initially is my guess cap wise, but gonna pay the piper after that
dfosterf (2-May) : The number on Love is going to be brutal.
Zero2Cool (2-May) : May 3rd. Extension day for Jordan Love. (soonest)
Zero2Cool (1-May) : USFL MVP QB Alex McGough moved to WR. So that's why no WR drafted!
earthquake (1-May) : Packers draft starters at safety ever few years. Collins, Clinton-Dix, Savage
beast (1-May) : Why can't the rookies be a day 1 starter? Especially when we grabbed 3 of them at the position
dfosterf (1-May) : Not going to be shocked if Gilmore goes to the Lions.
dfosterf (1-May) : I hear you dhazer, but my guess would be Gilmore Colts and Howard Vikings from what little has been reported.
Mucky Tundra (30-Apr) : S learn from McKinney who learns from Hafley who learns from the fans. Guaranteed Super Bowl
Zero2Cool (30-Apr) : could*
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : Safeties should learn from Xavier.
dhazer (29-Apr) : And what about grabbing a Gilmore or Howard at CB ? Those are all Free Agents left
dhazer (29-Apr) : out of curiosity do they try and sign Simmons or Hyde to let these young safeties learn from, they can't be day 1 starters.
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : I miss having Sam Shields.
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : Not that he's making excuses, just pointing it out
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : That's for dang sure. Make our erratic kicker have no excuse!
packerfanoutwest (28-Apr) : having a great long snapper is gold
Zero2Cool (28-Apr) : LaFleur looking like he had some weight. Coachin will do that lol
Zero2Cool (28-Apr) : Thanks Mucky and whomever created topcos for each pick!
Zero2Cool (28-Apr) : Insane about Kingsley
dfosterf (28-Apr) : Putring it here so Mucky sees it. He was our guy!
dfosterf (28-Apr) : Bowden long snapper Wisconsin. Consensus best LS in college.
dfosterf (28-Apr) : We got Peter Bowde
dfosterf (28-Apr) : I personally interpret that as a partial tear that can be recovered from with rehab
dfosterf (28-Apr) : MLF said Kingsley Enagbare did NOT tear his ACL and did NOT require surgery, and that he is "looking good" for the 2024 season!
beast (28-Apr) : T.O. son signs with the 49ers
Mucky Tundra (28-Apr) : damn those vikings
beast (27-Apr) : UDFA Vikings sign TE – Trey Knox, South Carolina
beast (27-Apr) : Kitchen was all high from Miami, he was more lucky than talented in 2022 and it showed in 2023
beast (27-Apr) : Reportedly Packers have UDFAs Jennings and Jones
beast (27-Apr) : OL – Donovan Jennings, USF OT – Trente Jones, Michigan
TheKanataThrilla (27-Apr) : Interesting draft. A bit shocked that we didn't select an early CB. Definitely have Safety help. Pretty happy overall.
dhazer (27-Apr) : wow the last 2 picks are really stupid and probably will be special teams players Top 10 draft pick next year book it
TheKanataThrilla (27-Apr) : I think he ended up with a terrible RAS score
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2023 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 10 @ 3:25 PM
Bears
Sunday, Sep 17 @ 12:00 PM
Falcons
Sunday, Sep 24 @ 12:00 PM
SAINTS
Thursday, Sep 28 @ 7:15 PM
LIONS
Monday, Oct 9 @ 7:15 PM
Raiders
Sunday, Oct 22 @ 3:25 PM
Broncos
Sunday, Oct 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Nov 5 @ 12:00 PM
RAMS
Sunday, Nov 12 @ 12:00 PM
Steelers
Sunday, Nov 19 @ 12:00 PM
CHARGERS
Thursday, Nov 23 @ 11:30 AM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 3 @ 7:20 PM
CHIEFS
Monday, Dec 11 @ 7:15 PM
Giants
Sunday, Dec 17 @ 12:00 PM
BUCCANEERS
Sunday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM
Panthers
Sunday, Dec 31 @ 7:20 PM
Vikings
Sunday, Jan 7 @ 3:25 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Jan 14 @ 3:30 PM
Cowboys
Saturday, Jan 20 @ 7:15 PM
49ers
Recent Topics
1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

3h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

22h / Packers Draft Threads / Mucky Tundra

23h / Packers Draft Threads / Mucky Tundra

5-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / greengold

5-May / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

5-May / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

5-May / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

5-May / Packers Draft Threads / beast

5-May / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

5-May / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

5-May / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

4-May / Packers Draft Threads / bboystyle

4-May / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

3-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / greengold

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.