Nonstopdrivel
15 years ago


Green Bay Packers To Pick an Offensive Tackle No. 1? Stats Say DON'T!
 

by Jersey Al Bracco

Featured Columnist

Written on February 26, 2010

[img_r]http://cdn.bleacherreport.com/images_root/images/photos/000/828/190/ChadClifton_feature.jpg?1267202261[/img_r]Its as close to fact as you can get. The Green Bay Packers No. 1 item on their things we need list is a left tackle to protect their franchise quarterback for years to come. Is there anyone out there that can truthfully dispute that statement? Anyone?

Sure, a bookend OLB to pair with Clay Matthews and some DB help (CB, S, ANYTHING!) would be great. A real punter would be great. Those are all things I want to see happen, as well.

However, with often-injured unrestricted free agent Chad Clifton on a downward career slope, the all-important left tackle position must be addressed now. With any luck, the Packers will be able to bring Clifton back for at least one more year and draft a potential LT of the future.

The question is, will they be able to get that player at pick No. 23 in the first round and should they even try? Stay with me, Ill explain what I mean.

Thanks to the friend-making machine known as Facebook, a Packer fan named Andy Tisdel alerted me to a blog post he had written. Andy had done some great research, identifying all of the starting left tackles in the NFL in 2009 and noting what round they were drafted in.

While you can read the post to get the full details, the end result was predictably that just over 50 percent of the starting left tackles in the NFL in 2009 were drafted in the first round.

So the Packers should draft an offensive tackle first, right? Not so fast. I had a feeling that if we dug a little deeper into the numbers, we might get a different answer.

Lets take a quick look at the players in question and where they were drafted:



AFC

Colts: Charlie Johnson (sixth)
Titans: Michael Roos (second) Pro Bowler
Texans: Duane Brown (first, No. 26)
Jaguars: Eugene Monroe (first, No. 8 )
Steelers: Max Starks (third)
Browns: Joe Thomas (first, No. 3) Pro Bowler
Ravens: Jared Gaither (fifth)
Bengals: Andrew Whitworth (second)
Jets: DBrickashaw Ferguson (first, No. 4) Pro Bowler
Patriots: Sebastian Vollmer (second) [Starter on IR: Matt Light, (second), Pro Bowler]
Dolphins: Jake Long (first, No. 1) Pro Bowler
Bills: Jonathan Scott (fifth)
Chargers: Marcus McNeill (second)
Raiders: Mario Henderson (third)
Chiefs: Branden Albert (first, No. 15)
Broncos: Ryan Clady (first, No. 12) Pro Bowler



NFC

Bears: Orlando Pace (first, No. 1) Pro Bowler
Packers: Chad Clifton (second)
Lions: Jeff Backus (first, No. 18)
Vikings: Bryant McKinnie (first, No. 7) Pro Bowler
49ers: Joe Staley (first, No. 28)
Cardinals: Jeremy Bridges (sixth)
Rams: Alex Barron (first, No. 19)
Seahawks: Sean Locklear (third) [Starter on IR: Walter Jones, (first, No. 6), Pro Bowler]
Cowboys: Flozell Adams (second) Pro Bowler
Eagles: Jason Peters (undrafted) Pro Bowler
Redskins: Levi Jones (first) [Starter on IR: Chris Samuels, (first, No. 3), Pro Bowler]
Giants: David Diehl (fifth) Pro Bowler
Saints: Jermon Bushrod (fourth) [Starter on IR: Jammal Brown, (first, No. 13), Pro Bowler]
Buccaneers: Donald Penn (undrafted)
Panthers: Jeff Otah (first) [Starter on IR: Jordan Gross, (first, No. 😎, Pro Bowler]
Falcons: Sam Baker (first, No. 21)

Using the starters that were on IR rather than their replacements, the results tabulate as follows:



Round Drafted

first round: 17
second: 5
third: 2
fourth: 1
fifth: 3
sixth: 2
seventh: 0

Undrafted/supplemental: 2

TOTAL=32

Out of the 17 first round picks, 15 were selected 21st or higher. Only 12 percent of those first round tackles were drafted in the range where the Packers will be selecting.


Now lets look at only the best of those left tackles; those that have made the Pro Bowl:



Round Drafted

first round: 11
second: 3
third: 0
fourth: 0
fifth: 1
sixth: 0
seventh: 0
Undrafted/supplemental: 1

Total=16

Eleven out of 16 (70 percent) of Pro Bowl left tackles were drafted in the first round. And even more significantly, eight of those 11 (73 percent) were top-10 picks. Of the other three, none were selected below No. 13.


Executive Summary

(for those of you whose heads are swimming right now)

Only two current starting left tackles were selected in the first round range where the Packers will be picking. More starting left tackles were selected in the later rounds and more Pro Bowl tackles were selected in the second round.

Statistically its a small sample size (your mileage may vary and past performance is not a guarantee of future results). But based on these figures, the chances of the Packers selecting a starting left tackle at the No. 23 pick is 12 percent. The chances of them selecting a future Pro Bowler is zero percent.

Yes, not one of the Pro Bowl tackles above selected in the first round went later than No. 13. Ironically, according to these numbers, they have a much better chance of finding a Pro Bowl tackle in the second round.

Sooooooooooooo, do the Packers still select an OT at No. 23 in the first round? What do YOU think?


UserPostedImage
dfosterf
15 years ago
What do I think, the author asks...

I think he should change the title of the article to, "My very limited cherry-picked, totally irrelevant statistics say don't."

The stats don't say don't.

The stats don't say anything, especially this set of them, other than the author was looking for something to talk about and his wife ought to snag his calculator and spreadsheet software while he is consuming adult beverages. :tongue3:
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
15 years ago
I think the author needs to take Statistics 1 over.

No, scratch that. Most Stats 1 classes suck. He probably got an A the first time through.

Sample size is a red herring.

The real problem in two words: Identification problem.

Or, as someone once put it to me: If your model sucks, it doesn't matter how much data you have.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
15 years ago
Stupid story. Why not just squeeze the sample group down to players selected between the 23 and 25?

Let me see if I got this right- LT's who were selected in the top ten spots have made more Pro Bowls than players selected in the bottom third of the first round.
Wow. I better write this down so I don't forget it.

It would mean more if he also looked at OLB, CB and S too. But my guess is that the numbers would be similar.

Someone should tell Teddy to pass on his first round selection. It ain't no good. I wonder if he holds on to it until the 2nd round if it becomes any better?
UserPostedImage
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Zero2Cool (1-May) : Packers did not activate the fifth-year options for linebacker Quay Walker, with the goal of signing him to a contract extension.
Zero2Cool (1-May) : Matthew Golden spoke with Randall Cobb before draft. Looked like chance encounter.
packerfanoutwest (1-May) : from a head left turn?
packerfanoutwest (1-May) : someone drunk?
Zero2Cool (1-May) : Unlikely.
dfosterf (30-Apr) : How long until Jeff Sperbeck's family sues John Elway ?
Zero2Cool (30-Apr) : Packers are exercising the fifth-year option on DT Devonte Wyatt, locking in a guaranteed $12.9M for the 2026 season.
beast (30-Apr) : Sounds like P Luke Elzinga has a rookie try out opportunity from the Titans
dfosterf (30-Apr) : Luke Elzinga Punter Oklahoma stil unsigned. Green Bay has been mentioned as good fit
beast (30-Apr) : The Packers re-signed three exclusive rights free agents WR Melton, P Whelan and RB Wilson.
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : February 5, 2002 (age 23) ok no. packers.com is wrong
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : Micah Robinson is only 19??
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : 6 first rounders on Packers defense now
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : LB Isaiah Simmons. Signed. Called it!!! Oh yeah!
Martha Careful (29-Apr) : ty bboystyle...fat fingers
bboystyle (29-Apr) : Tom*
Martha Careful (28-Apr) : RIP Packer Safety Tim Brown
beast (27-Apr) : Yeah, but also some of the wording suggestions Jax only pranked called the QB, not the others... and if he had an open spreadsheet & 3 calls
beast (27-Apr) : Thank goodness he's not leaving the Turtle in the Red Tide
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Cowboys 1st round pick Tyler Booker will indeed be bringing his pet turtle to Dallas with him
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : that contained all prospects info and contact
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : beast, according the Falcons statement Jax came across it on an ipad. If I had to guess, probably an open spread sheet or something
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Simmons put up an emoji with cheese.
beast (27-Apr) : Not sure anyone is interested in Isaiah Simmons... Collin Oliver might of taken his potential slot
beast (27-Apr) : I'm going with Jax Ulbrich is not telling the whole truth... he accidentally came across it? Why would a defensive coordinator have a QB #?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : He's not that great, but final piece of the script.\
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : If we add Isaiah Simmons, book your Super Bowl tickets
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Colts 1st round TE Tyler Warren also got prank called, was that Jax Ulbrich as well?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Jax Ulbrich, Jeff Ulbrich’s son, released an apology for his role in the Shedeur Sanders prank call.
Martha Careful (27-Apr) : apparently he did not participate in practice or play on the east west shrine game nor the NFL combine. The kid was a mediocre spoiled brat
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Yeah that one that was a super wounded duck that Sanders supporters are highlighting to prove a point
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Shough is the guy who missed guys at combine isn't he?
beast (27-Apr) : It's not official until I'm dead! I have a chance still! (Not really)
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : I could feel my body decomposing in real time when I read that
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : @MIKEYSAINRISTIL Tyler Shough will officially be the last person drafted to the NFL born in the 1900’s
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : saw the tweet, he meant the city
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : Was that for the team or the city?
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter · 3m Draft grade is in: Green Bay gets an A. The people, the city, the venue were all superb. NFL Draft’s next
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matt LaFleur says Jaire Alexander is participating in #Packers offseason program, which has been conducted virtually during this first week
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : ✅ ...
buckeyepackfan (26-Apr) : Check
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matthew Golden cahanged 81 to 22??
TheKanataThrilla (26-Apr) : Sam Howell to Vikings...guess no Aaron
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : 1 round 7 min, with one extra minute if there is a trade. 2nd round 4 minutes, 3rd -3, 2 thereafter IMO
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Agree
dfosterf (26-Apr) : Great idea imo
dfosterf (26-Apr) : 1st round to 7 minutes with one extension
dfosterf (26-Apr) : NFL comissioner wants to shorten the 2st
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : @jalenreagors They’re discussing if Sheduer can go back to college on NFL Network LMFAOOOOO
beast (26-Apr) : Great point Martha
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