Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago


Green Bay Packers To Pick an Offensive Tackle No. 1? Stats Say DON'T!
 

by Jersey Al Bracco

Featured Columnist

Written on February 26, 2010

[img_r]http://cdn.bleacherreport.com/images_root/images/photos/000/828/190/ChadClifton_feature.jpg?1267202261[/img_r]Its as close to fact as you can get. The Green Bay Packers No. 1 item on their things we need list is a left tackle to protect their franchise quarterback for years to come. Is there anyone out there that can truthfully dispute that statement? Anyone?

Sure, a bookend OLB to pair with Clay Matthews and some DB help (CB, S, ANYTHING!) would be great. A real punter would be great. Those are all things I want to see happen, as well.

However, with often-injured unrestricted free agent Chad Clifton on a downward career slope, the all-important left tackle position must be addressed now. With any luck, the Packers will be able to bring Clifton back for at least one more year and draft a potential LT of the future.

The question is, will they be able to get that player at pick No. 23 in the first round and should they even try? Stay with me, Ill explain what I mean.

Thanks to the friend-making machine known as Facebook, a Packer fan named Andy Tisdel alerted me to a blog post he had written. Andy had done some great research, identifying all of the starting left tackles in the NFL in 2009 and noting what round they were drafted in.

While you can read the post to get the full details, the end result was predictably that just over 50 percent of the starting left tackles in the NFL in 2009 were drafted in the first round.

So the Packers should draft an offensive tackle first, right? Not so fast. I had a feeling that if we dug a little deeper into the numbers, we might get a different answer.

Lets take a quick look at the players in question and where they were drafted:



AFC

Colts: Charlie Johnson (sixth)
Titans: Michael Roos (second) Pro Bowler
Texans: Duane Brown (first, No. 26)
Jaguars: Eugene Monroe (first, No. 8 )
Steelers: Max Starks (third)
Browns: Joe Thomas (first, No. 3) Pro Bowler
Ravens: Jared Gaither (fifth)
Bengals: Andrew Whitworth (second)
Jets: DBrickashaw Ferguson (first, No. 4) Pro Bowler
Patriots: Sebastian Vollmer (second) [Starter on IR: Matt Light, (second), Pro Bowler]
Dolphins: Jake Long (first, No. 1) Pro Bowler
Bills: Jonathan Scott (fifth)
Chargers: Marcus McNeill (second)
Raiders: Mario Henderson (third)
Chiefs: Branden Albert (first, No. 15)
Broncos: Ryan Clady (first, No. 12) Pro Bowler



NFC

Bears: Orlando Pace (first, No. 1) Pro Bowler
Packers: Chad Clifton (second)
Lions: Jeff Backus (first, No. 18)
Vikings: Bryant McKinnie (first, No. 7) Pro Bowler
49ers: Joe Staley (first, No. 28)
Cardinals: Jeremy Bridges (sixth)
Rams: Alex Barron (first, No. 19)
Seahawks: Sean Locklear (third) [Starter on IR: Walter Jones, (first, No. 6), Pro Bowler]
Cowboys: Flozell Adams (second) Pro Bowler
Eagles: Jason Peters (undrafted) Pro Bowler
Redskins: Levi Jones (first) [Starter on IR: Chris Samuels, (first, No. 3), Pro Bowler]
Giants: David Diehl (fifth) Pro Bowler
Saints: Jermon Bushrod (fourth) [Starter on IR: Jammal Brown, (first, No. 13), Pro Bowler]
Buccaneers: Donald Penn (undrafted)
Panthers: Jeff Otah (first) [Starter on IR: Jordan Gross, (first, No. 😎, Pro Bowler]
Falcons: Sam Baker (first, No. 21)

Using the starters that were on IR rather than their replacements, the results tabulate as follows:



Round Drafted

first round: 17
second: 5
third: 2
fourth: 1
fifth: 3
sixth: 2
seventh: 0

Undrafted/supplemental: 2

TOTAL=32

Out of the 17 first round picks, 15 were selected 21st or higher. Only 12 percent of those first round tackles were drafted in the range where the Packers will be selecting.


Now lets look at only the best of those left tackles; those that have made the Pro Bowl:



Round Drafted

first round: 11
second: 3
third: 0
fourth: 0
fifth: 1
sixth: 0
seventh: 0
Undrafted/supplemental: 1

Total=16

Eleven out of 16 (70 percent) of Pro Bowl left tackles were drafted in the first round. And even more significantly, eight of those 11 (73 percent) were top-10 picks. Of the other three, none were selected below No. 13.


Executive Summary

(for those of you whose heads are swimming right now)

Only two current starting left tackles were selected in the first round range where the Packers will be picking. More starting left tackles were selected in the later rounds and more Pro Bowl tackles were selected in the second round.

Statistically its a small sample size (your mileage may vary and past performance is not a guarantee of future results). But based on these figures, the chances of the Packers selecting a starting left tackle at the No. 23 pick is 12 percent. The chances of them selecting a future Pro Bowler is zero percent.

Yes, not one of the Pro Bowl tackles above selected in the first round went later than No. 13. Ironically, according to these numbers, they have a much better chance of finding a Pro Bowl tackle in the second round.

Sooooooooooooo, do the Packers still select an OT at No. 23 in the first round? What do YOU think?


UserPostedImage
dfosterf
14 years ago
What do I think, the author asks...

I think he should change the title of the article to, "My very limited cherry-picked, totally irrelevant statistics say don't."

The stats don't say don't.

The stats don't say anything, especially this set of them, other than the author was looking for something to talk about and his wife ought to snag his calculator and spreadsheet software while he is consuming adult beverages. :tongue3:
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
14 years ago
I think the author needs to take Statistics 1 over.

No, scratch that. Most Stats 1 classes suck. He probably got an A the first time through.

Sample size is a red herring.

The real problem in two words: Identification problem.

Or, as someone once put it to me: If your model sucks, it doesn't matter how much data you have.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
14 years ago
Stupid story. Why not just squeeze the sample group down to players selected between the 23 and 25?

Let me see if I got this right- LT's who were selected in the top ten spots have made more Pro Bowls than players selected in the bottom third of the first round.
Wow. I better write this down so I don't forget it.

It would mean more if he also looked at OLB, CB and S too. But my guess is that the numbers would be similar.

Someone should tell Teddy to pass on his first round selection. It ain't no good. I wonder if he holds on to it until the 2nd round if it becomes any better?
UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (6h) : 49ers might be down their QB, DL, TE and LT?
packerfanoutwest (20h) : Jaire Alexander says he has a torn PCL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked
Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Backup QB helped with three wins. Special Teams contributed to three wins.
bboystyle (18-Nov) : Lions played outside thats why. They scored 16 and 17 in the only 2 outside games this year
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : The rest of the NFL is catching up to Packers ... kicking is an issue throughout league
packerfanoutwest (18-Nov) : Packers DL Kenny Clark: We knew 'we were going to block' Bears' game-winning field goal attempt
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Lions seem to be throttling everyone, but only (only) got 24 lol maybe the rain is why
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Packers vs Lions game doesn't seem so bad.
beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
Mucky Tundra (17-Nov) : my worst case scenario: Bears fix their oline and get a coach like Johnson from the Lions and his scheme
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Bears get OL fixed amd we might have a problem
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : Pretty sure they already have scouting reports on guys who aren't even starting for their college team. The future is now for me.
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : I tend to let Gute and Co. Worry about the future.
beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them
beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : Jaire and Evans Williams are both ACTIVE! Good news.
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : The badgers really need to change the whole offensive scheme. No draws no screens plus the quarterback is marginal
Cheesey (17-Nov) : If the Badgers had a decent QB, they would have won. The guy can't hit a wide open receiver
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : chop block
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : there was a very questionable job Block call that upon viewing replay was very borderline
beast (17-Nov) : How so? (I didn't watch)
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Badgers got hosed vs Oregon
packerfanoutwest (16-Nov) : damn,he hasn't played since week 2
Mucky Tundra (15-Nov) : poor guy can't catch a break
wpr (15-Nov) : wow. That three different things for the kid.
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