NFC NORTH QBS: HOW THEY RATE
This past week, the Press-Gazette asked four pro personnel people from outside the NFC North to rank the divisions starting quarterbacks. Chicagos Jay Cutler received three first-place votes, while Green Bays Aaron Rodgers received the other. Only one scout ranked Minnesotas Brett Favre ahead of Rodgers, and all four scouts put Detroit rookie Matthew Stafford last because hes yet to start a game. Heres a breakdown of the group:
1. Jay Cutler, Bears
4th year; 6-foot-3, 233 pounds; 26 years old
2008 (with Denver): 16 starts, 384-for-616 passing (62.3 percent) for 4,526 yards, 25 TDs, 18 INTs, 86.0 rating.
Career: 37 starts, 762-for-1,220 (62.5 percent) for 9,024 yards, 54 TDs, 37 INTs, 87.1 rating.
Upside: Elite arm strength. Can extend plays with his legs. Uses play fakes to his advantage and throws accurately on the run when he gets outside the pocket. Makes tough, tight throws. Competitive. Has 2 years as a starter under his belt. Hes not (Peyton) Manning or (Tom) Brady or (Drew) Brees quite yet, said an AFC personnel man who ranked Cutler as by far the divisions best QB. But hes in probably the next level down of guys, because hes been productive, and hes got plenty of talent. Hes a guy thats on the come, so I dont see him in that upper echelon, but hes in the next level down.
Downside: Sometimes fails to play within the scheme. Takes too many chances and might get exposed with inferior receivers in Chicago. Perceived by some as having a me-first attitude. I think with Cutler youve got a little bit more arm strength, a pro scout for an NFC team said, but on the downside, flipside, youve also got a little bit more of that gunslinger mentality.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
5th year; 6-2, 220; 25 years old
2008: 16 starts, 341-for-536 passing (63.6 percent) for 4,038 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs, 93.8 rating.
Career: 16 starts, 376-for-595 (63.2 percent) for 4,367 yards, 29 TDs, 14 INTs, 91.8 rating.
Upside: Good arm strength, mobility and overall physical tools. Accurate passer. Matured during three seasons backing up Brett Favre. Knows offense inside and out. Solid work ethic. Grades out highly for decision-making and doesnt take many dumb chances. What Ive been able to see in Rodgers is the development I think of some of the intangibles you want at the quarterback position, said the AFC personnel man who ranked Rodgers No. 1. Leadership, the moxie, the savvy, approach, command of the offense.
Downside: Team finished 6-10 in his only season as starter. Sometimes erratic early in games. Failed in seven chances to win a game with the ball and less than 5 minutes to go. Its a learning experience, really, another NFC pro scout said. In reality, the guy was a rookie last year his first go-round and having the whole thing in front of him, and he was the guy. I dont put (the close losses) all on him by any means.
3. Brett Favre, Vikings
19th year; 6-2, 222; 39 years old
2008 (with N.Y. Jets): 16 starts, 343-for-522 passing (65.7 percent) for 3,472 yards, 22 TDs, 22 INTs, 81.0 rating.
Career: 269 starts, 5,720-for-9,280 (61.6 percent) for 65,127 yards, 464 TDs, 310 INTs, 85.4 rating.
Upside: Brings loads of intangibles. Off-the-charts football smarts. Can read defenses as well as anyone. Will benefit from Vikings exceptional running game. All four scouts said hes an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels, if only for one year. When (Favre) came in, those guys said its just a whole nother speed level that the ball takes on in terms of speed, velocity and those things, an AFC personnel man said. Hes still got the juice. Obviously, it isnt what it (was) back in the late-90s, when he was hitting on all cylinders. But he can still zip the football.
Downside: Has declined markedly down the stretch each of the past five seasons. Skipped the entire offseason program and three weeks of training camp before signing. Coming off surgery to repair a partially torn biceps tendon in his throwing shoulder. Turns 40 on Oct. 10. Legendarily resilient body might be breaking down. Heck, I just watched the first game he played (in the preseason against Kansas City) he got his (butt) beat, an NFC scout said. You just talk about the amount of shots you have left, and again, you dont ever want to count the guy out or say (hes done), but its just a matter of time. The body can only take so many hits.
4. Matthew Stafford, Lions
Rookie; 6-3, 232; 21 years old
2008 at University of Georgia: 235-for-383 passing (61.4 percent) for 3,459 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, 153.5 rating.
College career: 564-for-987 (57.1 percent) for 7,731 yards, 51 TDs, 33 INTs.
Upside: Has the physical tools to be an effective pocket passer. Strong arm. Similar skill set to Cutlers coming out, except Stafford played more within the system. Intelligent. Can run a huddle. Had best college season as a junior and declared early. Beat out veteran Daunte Culpepper for the starting job with a strong camp. Thats a kid with physical talent and upside, an AFC personnel man said. I think whats going to help him make that significant jump, is going to be the intangibles that come with the position. Its just smarts, decision-making, command of the offense, leadership those things obviously are important to play this position.
Downside: Hasnt started an NFL game. Needs time to mature and get full grasp of the offense. Plays for a franchise where top draft picks have been known to fail. Preseason numbers (30-for-55 passing, 1 TD, 4 INTs, 52.8 rating) were uninspiring. Has an elite playmaker in WR Calvin Johnson but not a lot else to work with. I have seen Detroit play, and Im still concerned that theyre going to have some issues up front, an NFC scout said. Its going to be a struggle, but again, 81 (Johnson) is special. Maybe they just take two steps back and just chuck it and just hope for the best.
Tom Pelissero, tpelisse@greenbaypressgazette.com