Tezzy
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16 years ago

Packers fantasy question: Was QB Rodgers a one-year wonder?
By Michael Fabiano | NFL.com
Fantasy Editor

Packers' burning fantasy question: Was Aaron Rodgers a one-year fantasy wonder?



Packers fantasy question 

Article just posted on NFL.com. The part that made me cringe was when they mentioned, "Fantasy leaguers should always temper their excitement for a player coming off a career season -- those who drafted Derek Anderson in 2008 know that all too well."
On top of every beard grows a man.
"The Bears are shell-shocked... and it's breaking my heart."
Bigbyfan
16 years ago

Of course, there's always the chance that he'll turn into the 2008 version of Ben Roethlisberger, who floundered last season after putting up monster numbers in 2007. But several different factors should keep Rodgers from seeing a significant decrease in production.



I wouldn't mind Rodgers having "Big Ben's 2008 season," especially the part with him holding up the trophy at the end.
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Nonstopdrivel
16 years ago

Self-fulfilling prophecies make NFL camp 'competitions' a total joke 

The NFL is supposed to be among the most objective places of employment around. If you can play, you can stay, as the saying goes. Or in regard to coaches, win and you can stay in. The best players should start, make the team, etc. Likewise, the best coaches should get the head jobs, coordinator roles, etc. Yet in an ultra-competitive industry, that isn't always the case. There are still a number of personnel decisions that are pre-ordained. Call it the theory of the self-fulfilling prophecy.

The latest example comes out of Denver, where Kyle Orton "won" the battle for the starting quarterback position with Chris Simms. Now there's a shocker. After the whole drawn out Jay Cutler fiasco, was there ever any doubt who Josh McDaniels was going to tab as his starting quarterback? The only way Orton was going to lose the job to Simms was if Orton played horrendous and Simms played amazing, which was not the case.

That the Broncos announced their decision in June, without the players ever putting on shoulder pads, indicates this was more of a reaffirmation of what they already thought, not a genuine, no-holds barred competition. Making a decision about any position based upon OTAs, where there are no "live" bullets and no real threat of a pass rush, is questionable at best. So much for the pace of those practices being at a tempo conducive to learning and not evaluation, per the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

I am not saying Simms deserved the job. Orton is a proven winner when given an opportunity as opposed to Simms, who hasn't played in forever. Unfortunately for Simms, he was behind the eight-ball as soon as McDaniels hand-picked Orton in the Cutler trade.

Not every self-fulfilling prophecy necessarily results from a coach picking one player to play over another. Another high-profile example comes from Packers GM Ted Thompson and his decision in early November to give Aaron Rodgers a contract extension that will keep him in Green Bay until 2014 and pay him $66 million in the process. In the case of the Rodgers deal, much like the Orton situation, the ultimate decision to sign him to a long-term deal was probably the right one. Rodgers had proven he was a competent starting quarterback over the first half of the season and eventually finished with 28 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions while throwing for over 4,000 yards.

But similarly to the predetermined Orton decision in Denver, you have to imagine Thompson was hoping he would be able to sign Rodgers to a deal that validates him as the franchise quarterback for the Packers. After the messy Brett Favre divorce, Thompson would have been toast in the minds of the Lambeau faithful if Rodgers had faltered. So Rodgers contract not only establishes him as the quarterback of the future in Green Bay, it also becomes the backbone for Thompson's reasoning for moving forward without Favre in the first place. In effect, the Rodgers deal validates him and the entire Packers front office.

Critics will point out the team was only 6-10 last season and Rodgers showed a chronic inability to find a way to lead his team to a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Lucky for him, it doesn't matter. Thompson was itching to place the stamp of approval on his Favre decision as soon as possible. So as soon as a new contract for Rodgers was reasonable, he pulled the trigger.

Self-fulfilling prophecies like these happen all the time and it is no secret why. Owners, GMs and coaches have a vested interest in having their decisions pay off -- or at least appear to pay off. It makes them look good. It is one of the reasons I think more and more teams are drafting offensive linemen high in the draft over the last couple of seasons.

Teams and prognosticators will use the term "safe," but I prefer the word "hide." That's because one of the reasons an offensive lineman is a safe pick is because teams can scheme block to protect him, and can give him help from backs, tight ends and other linemen. Then, at the end of the year, teams can point out the fact their high pick started all 16 games and only gave up a couple of sacks, even though the truth may be that he was given so much assistance that he was rarely placed in a position to fail.

The next example of a pre-ordained competition is taking place in New York right now with the "battle" between Kellen Clemens and Mark Sanchez. Please. As if the $28 million guaranteed Sanchez is getting in his rookie contract wasn't enough of a reason to assume Sanchez would ultimately "win" the job, the recent comments from owner Woody Johnson comparing Sanchez's similarities to the great generals of all time pretty much cemented it. Sorry Kellen, but you have no shot.

That is a real shame in my mind because Clemens was once a hot prospect out of the Pac-10 and never really has had an opportunity to show what he can do outside of starting some games for a horrible Jets team in 2007. It is hard for me to imagine that a young quarterback with only 16 college starts can beat out a guy going into his fourth season working with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. Alas, it doesn't really matter. As soon as their production appears to be even close to comparable in the eyes of the Jets front office, Sanchez will be taking the snaps. It has already been predetermined.


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Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (26m) : That is fair by me.
buckeyepackfan (27m) : Kenny Clark is the player, 2 1st rnd picks
Zero2Cool (34m) : umm... what?
wpr (46m) : I am stunned
Mucky Tundra (48m) : RICKEY SCOOPS WAS RIGHT AGAIN!!!
Mucky Tundra (49m) : ITS HAPPENING
buckeyepackfan (50m) : DEAL IS DONE
buckeyepackfan (51m) : MICAH IS COMING TO GREEN BAY!!!!!!!!!
wpr (7h) : Me do-ed it gooderly,
Zero2Cool (21h) : Bahah, I was like WTF why isn't anyone posting on PP.com ... oops no one has permissions
dfosterf (23h) : tell her I reckon
dfosterf (23h) : Micah Robinson cut. Probable PS player tomorrow. Has to call mom back and t
Zero2Cool (27-Aug) : New site so much better. Might make switch and deal with it.
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Mecole Hardman to our practice squad
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Nick Nieman from Texans our 5th linebacker. Special teams signing
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Looks like we signed Clayton Tune as QB3
wpr (27-Aug) : TKT people lose their minds over QB3. Point is almost none of them are ready that's why they are on the PS and other teams don't take them.
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Unfortunately he doesn't seem ready to be an emergency QB.
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : As a Canadian and a follower of Canadian University football. I am rooting for him
dfosterf (27-Aug) : I bet a lot of us will follow the Taylor Elgersma journey with interest. Personally, got a Kurt Warner vibe goin' on. I like him
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Not sure if either will be claimed though.
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Tune or Hooker would make sense
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Clayton Tune cut by the Cards? Don't know if that's the guy, we shall see
TheKanataThrilla (27-Aug) : Per Bill Huber, the Packers will not be bringing back Taylor Elgersma or Sean Clifford on the practice squad, so a new third quarterback
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : Schefter must have deleted his tweet
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Hopefully Jerry reaches under the seat cushions and ashtrays of his jet and scrapes up the 45 million apr and spares us further nonsense
dfosterf (27-Aug) : Have to admit the PO'd Cowboy fan videos would be fun to watch. Problem with draft picks is half their fanbase barely knows what that is
beast (27-Aug) : I think Cowboys fans are ready to get their pitch forks and burning sticks if Jerry were to trade Micah
dfosterf (27-Aug) : If Jerry traded Micah to GB, here in northern Va. they would have to quick build yet another data center to handle the internet hate traffic
Zero2Cool (27-Aug) : its signing and trades that you don't hear about, other then announced
Zero2Cool (27-Aug) : If you hear rumors about Packers sign or trade, won't happen. Not how they work
dfosterf (27-Aug) : 19 players in a contract year. Jones called loss to us worst loss in Cowboy history. Forget Parsons trade. Not happenin' Cap'n
packerfanoutwest (27-Aug) : The Packers, meanwhile, are the youngest team in the league for the third consecutive year.
dfosterf (27-Aug) : That it was darkest before the dawn in Bengals and Commanders before they got deals done
Zero2Cool (27-Aug) : what is Schefter saying?
dfosterf (27-Aug) : He was getting Dorito infusion therapy
dfosterf (27-Aug) : He's outta shape. Why, just the other day I saw him splayed out on the trainers table
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : Parsons has followed Rasheed Walker on Twitter. Quite the choice
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : Kuhn is a former player who works for the team, if somethings going down, he would be close to it
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : @kuhnj30 Micah Freaking Parsons
Mucky Tundra (27-Aug) : A LOT of buzz on the Bird App regarding Parsons; even Schefter is saying it's serious
dfosterf (26-Aug) : *Orzech*
dfosterf (26-Aug) : Orzich long snapper 3 yr extension
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : Packers signed someone for three year deal
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : lol i know it's insane ... sign up for the waiver wire then you'll know
wpr (26-Aug) : YES!!!!!!
Mucky Tundra (26-Aug) : WE WANT THE LIST! WE WANT THE LIST!
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : @JJLahey · 2m Holy crap, Packers, where the heck is the list?
Zero2Cool (26-Aug) : haha folks on Tweeter every year this time ... 'where is list Packers!!" hahaha
wpr (26-Aug) : He played pretty good.
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