https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/5/1/23707017/2023-nfl-draft-green-bay-packers-day-3-picks-history-analysis-strategy-gm-brian-gutekunst
Very interesting shift in NFL team philosophies regarding undrafted free agents is happening. With some UDFAs making more money on the open market than most late round picks, teams may start adding more late picks and using them to avoid overpaying for back-end talent.
For perspective, I read this morning that one UDFA got 230K guaranteed while Brock Purdy got 77K last year guaranteed as the last pick of the draft. Three times the guaranteed amount for a player who has a less than 50% chance to make it? Wow!
Moreover, Green Bay was one of only five teams in 2022 that didn’t guarantee a single dollar of base salary to entice anyone to sign.
As one agent said of making decisions, “The most important thing is opportunity. Does my client have a legitimate chance to contend for a spot on the 53 or even the practice squad? For Green Bay, they’ve got a strong history of giving undrafted guys a fair shake. That matters. But if one team is offering $15,000 guaranteed and the Packers are offering $5,000, that’s hard to ignore. Generally, money talks and money means opportunity.”
I only posted very little of this article, that someone was talking about in shout (but they didn't post into a thread for some unknown reason).
But this is a very good and knowledgeable article.
That being said, I think they're over thinking Gute a bit. I think more simply the Packers got Comp picks which has long been a part of the Packers (and Ravens) strategy.
And more years when they're more towards the all in setting, Gute trades up to get more quality, but this year, they're rebuilding, so he traded down as much this year (twice) as he has in his entire GM career (or two prior trade downs) to get more quantity.
As for the no guarantees, and being one of the 5 teams that refuse to do it... my understanding that's a Russ Ball decision, as he uses that fact, that they don't give ANYONE guarantees on their base salary in negotiations, and he refuses to make an exception for UDFAs as that would undermine his argument in negotiations.
Which just tells me, Russ Ball doesn't know how to make a decent exception argument, or at least he doesn't want to.
And since teams started doing that, and the Packers refused, their quality of UDFAs went from some of the best UDFAs to guys no one has heard of...
So I think the extra picks were just from Comp picks and former trades, not necessarily done on purpose to avoid UDFAs, BUT maybe they should start doing that on purpose.
That, or Russ Ball should stop living in the past and get with the modern methods of signing UDFAs.
And Ball SHOULD be able to still make an argument that the Packers only do it for UDFAs (the poor men that are going undrafted and probably won't have a job soon). And they still don't do it for veterans.
Also, as far the other point in the article (that I didn't post) I wouldn't count how many players signed with agents to prove your point, as the Union has sorta been suggesting players can save money by not signing an agent for the rookie deals as they're pretty much 98% already locked up based on the CBA rules. So players can save 1% to 4% on their rookie contracts by being their own agent for bang out that 2% or less of the contract with the Unions help.