zombieslayer
16 years ago

That's purely retrospective thinking and leads to a post hoc fallacy: "The team was good in 2007, so Mike McCarthy must have been a good coach in 2007. The team wasn't good in 2008, so Mike McCarthy must have changed." It is a simplistic non-analysis that ignores all the other factors that contributed to the poor results of 2008.

Using such a unifactorial approach, you could make just as valid an argument blaming the season on the long snapper: "The team went 13-3 in 2007 with Rob Davis as the long snapper, but only 6-10 without him. Obviously, it's all the long snapper's fault."

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Actually, no.

One thing I noticed in '06 was when MM was frustrated, he buried his face into his playbook. In '07, I noticed he didn't do that any more. I wonder if someone called him on it.

But in '08, he seemed to revert to some of his old bad habits. One of them I immediately think of is he doesn't adjust as well when the game goes on. Adjustments were his forte in '07 (except in the loss to the Giants in the CG).

Sure, this isn't something I can prove, but it certainly appears to be the case.
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Nonstopdrivel
16 years ago

Adjustments were his forte in '07

"zombieslayer" wrote:



Maybe. I'd like to think you're right. But it's equally conceivable that adjustments were the team's forte in '07. Or perhaps they were even (gasp!) Sander's forte in '07. The truth is we just don't know.
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obi1
16 years ago

That's purely retrospective thinking and leads to a post hoc fallacy: "The team was good in 2007, so Mike McCarthy must have been a good coach in 2007. The team wasn't good in 2008, so Mike McCarthy must have changed." It is a simplistic non-analysis that ignores all the other factors that contributed to the poor results of 2008.

Using such a unifactorial approach, you could make just as valid an argument blaming the season on the long snapper: "The team went 13-3 in 2007 with Rob Davis as the long snapper, but only 6-10 without him. Obviously, it's all the long snapper's fault."

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Come on nonstop. Davis was only in for a few plays every game and the coach is responsible for every play. You really can't compare the two.

IF you remember I said that this team lacked the leadership at midseason or earlier. How is it retrospective?

The players don't have the inspirational leader so they don't play upto the standard they did the year before. It doesn't have to fall on my head for me to acknowlege that the Packers played uninspired football in 2008.

Many who have played on championship teams in ANY sport will tell you that the inspirational leader does make a difference. How tangible was Lombardi's affect on the Packers? How would you measure it? In what statistic would it show up? How about Parcells?

The Great American inventor Thomas Edison once said "Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration". So what would he have invented without the inspiration? Doesn't perspiration without the inspiration just create a sweaty, stinky body without accomplishing anything?

May be then we can conclude that the difference between the 13-3 season of 2007 and the 6-10 season of 2008 was that 1%. Packers played more inspired football in 2007... For whatever reason... Can we quantify that? Put it into some statistic to trivialize it so that the impiricists can understand it?
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DarkaneRules
16 years ago
I cannot even begin to imagine just how many things truly go into the end result of the games we see... all the players, all the coaches... their lives, minds, physical health and abilities. I see good things for every season. I think the organization is in good trusting hands from the top. I see no reason to think the Packers will be a team of mediocrity for the next decade or anything. I think we will have our ups and downs but the NFL is the league of parity.
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Nonstopdrivel
16 years ago
I would say the Ravens are playing uninspired football, particularly on offense. Certainly it's boring to watch. Yet they're winning. Is it because of some inspirational spark that Joe Flacco is providing? I doubt it.

I'm not saying you can reduce a season to numbers -- that would be absurd. But it's easy to indulge in simplistic analysis and overemphasize any one factor. I agree with DarkaneRules: the equation that results in success and unpredictable is just too complex for that.
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