Nonstopdrivel
4 years ago

By One Metric, Packers’ Draft Wasn’t So Bad
 
Bill Huber
Apr 30, 2020

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Contrary to the premature grades rolled out by the pundits, a formula used by Sports Info Solutions shows the Green Bay Packers actually had a quality draft.

Alex Vigderman of Sports Info Solutions used SIS’s Total Points metric to weigh all 32 teams’ draft classes. (You can read about Total Points here.) The chart is below:


“The Packers fell in the middle of the pack with respect to filling needs,” Vigderman wrote via e-mail. “While plenty of attention went to their not filling in behind Davante Adams at wide receiver, they did pick a player at each of their three neediest positions, according to Total Points. Their biggest hole from a Total Points production perspective was at linebacker, and they didn’t address the position on either of the first two days of the draft.”

Much of the criticism surrounding Green Bay’s draft was based on the selection of quarterback Jordan Love as a potential successor to Aaron Rodgers rather than the pick being used on an instant-impact performer to improve a roster that was good enough to go 13-3 and reach the NFC Championship Game last season. Needs such as receiver, offensive tackle and linebacker were either partially or fully ignored.

The analytics don’t care about all of that, though.

“This method is agnostic to the politics surrounding a pick, so when the Packers took Jordan Love in the first round, they got credit for taking a quarterback, which is obviously the most valuable position you could draft,” Vigderman wrote. “Taking Love makes their Total Points value higher than will actually manifest itself on their roster, assuming Rodgers is healthy in 2020. They also get credit for solid value from seventh-round edge Jonathan Garvin and fifth-round LB Kamal Martin, who are rated by Total Points as their highest-producing players behind Love and second-round pick AJ Dillon.”

Bill Huber wrote:



It's a little crazy to see what outliers the Ravens and Vikings were by that metric.

Saving graphic here for posterity:

 image.png You have insufficient rights to see the content.
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Zero2Cool
4 years ago
Why don't people aggressively grade drafts that we have actually seen play games in the NFL? I just don't understand any attempt whatsoever to grade kids who haven't even suited up for a single NFL practice. It feels like such an utter waste of time and energy. It's annoying as people who put out dozens of mock drafts and then Tweet "I had player x going there in mock draft 43,021".


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Cheesey
4 years ago
These “experts” all want to look like the best. Being as there isn’t anything yet to prove them right or wrong, they can say this team did a great draft, or a sucky draft, and there’s nothing to prove them wrong.
And if future results prove they were right, they will yell how right they were. If they are proven wrong, they won’t make a peep.
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porky88
4 years ago
The results of the draft won’t be known for at least 2 years. Calling any draft good or bad right now is subjective. Let’s wait until we get actual data (e.g., production on the field) before jumping to conclusions.
Smokey
4 years ago

The results of the draft won’t be known for at least 2 years. Calling any draft good or bad right now is subjective. Let’s wait until we get actual data (e.g., production on the field) before jumping to conclusions.

Originally Posted by: porky88 



"The proof of the pudding is in the eating". An old saying that, IMO, fits the Packers. Few at this time last year believed that GB could reach a 13-3 regular season record. Some held to hope that Rashan Gary would justify being GB's 1st round draft pick. Others cried that GB could not stop a snail on defense.

The Packers are not rebuilding, but they are evolving. Yes evolving into HC LaFleur's offensive system that is based first on running the football and inserting the pass at strategic opportunity/need. This calls for better blocking/running that makes defenses respect the run and loosen some passing plays up with less strict coverages. The 2019 Packers were just a taste of what this offensive system can be. GM Gutekunst is on board with this philosophy and is not allowing himself to be sidetracked in draft/FA player selections. It's not the same old system that so many other teams still cling to. Rather it is the new cutting edge and therefor for some they have not yet grasped the logic involved.

Placing greater emphasis upon a dominant running attack eases the pressure on the passing game. That said, it does not mean that the poor 2019 WR production will be overlooked. I see GM Gutekunst working to improve both areas, but in his own way.

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dfosterf (11-Nov) : I believe Zero was being sarcastic
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Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : Lions escape with a win
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wpr (11-Nov) : Happy birthday Corps. Ever faithful. Thanks dfosterf.
Mucky Tundra (10-Nov) : stiff armed by Baker Mayfield for about 5-7 yards and still managed to get a pass off
Mucky Tundra (10-Nov) : Nick Bosa
wpr (8-Nov) : Jets are Packers (L)East
Zero2Cool (8-Nov) : Jets released K Riley Patterson and signed K Anders Carlson to the practice squad.
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beast (7-Nov) : Edge Rushers is the same... it's not the 4-3 vs 3-4 change, it's the Hafley's version of the 4-3... as all 32 teams are actually 4-2
Zero2Cool (6-Nov) : OLB to DE and player requests trade. Yet folks say they are same.
beast (5-Nov) : In other news, the Green Bay Packers have signed Zero2Cool to update their website 😋 jk
beast (5-Nov) : Might just re-sign the kicker we got
beast (5-Nov) : Are there any kickers worth drafting next year?
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Preston Smith for Malik Willis
Mucky Tundra (5-Nov) : Getting a 7th rounder from the Stillers
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : At least we get 7th round pick now!! HELLO NEW KICKER
Mucky Tundra (5-Nov) : Steelers getting a premier lockdown corner!
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Packers are trading edge rusher Preston Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers, per sources.
Mucky Tundra (5-Nov) : Preston Smith traded to the Steelers!!!!
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : CB Marshon Lattimore to Commanders
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Bears are sending RB Khalil Herbert to the Bengals, per sources.
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : ZaDarius Smith continues his "north" tour.
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Martha Careful (5-Nov) : any interest in Marshon Lattimore?
Zero2Cool (4-Nov) : What does NFL do if they're over cap?
Mucky Tundra (4-Nov) : They've been able to constantly push it out through extensions, void years etc but they're in the hole by 72 million next year I believe
hardrocker950 (4-Nov) : Seems the Saints are always in cap hell
Mucky Tundra (4-Nov) : Saints HC job is not an envious one; gonna be in cap hell for 3 years
Mucky Tundra (4-Nov) : Dennis Allen has now been fired twice mid-season with Derek Carr as his starting QB
Zero2Cool (4-Nov) : Kuhn let go
beast (4-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers would have any interest in Z. Smith, probably not
Zero2Cool (4-Nov) : Shefter says Browns and Lions will figure out how to get a deal done for Za'Darius Smith..
Zero2Cool (4-Nov) : Packers are more likely to have 1,000 yard rusher than 4,000 yard passer
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