Nonstopdrivel
4 years ago

By One Metric, Packers’ Draft Wasn’t So Bad
 
Bill Huber
Apr 30, 2020

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Contrary to the premature grades rolled out by the pundits, a formula used by Sports Info Solutions shows the Green Bay Packers actually had a quality draft.

Alex Vigderman of Sports Info Solutions used SIS’s Total Points metric to weigh all 32 teams’ draft classes. (You can read about Total Points here.) The chart is below:


“The Packers fell in the middle of the pack with respect to filling needs,” Vigderman wrote via e-mail. “While plenty of attention went to their not filling in behind Davante Adams at wide receiver, they did pick a player at each of their three neediest positions, according to Total Points. Their biggest hole from a Total Points production perspective was at linebacker, and they didn’t address the position on either of the first two days of the draft.”

Much of the criticism surrounding Green Bay’s draft was based on the selection of quarterback Jordan Love as a potential successor to Aaron Rodgers rather than the pick being used on an instant-impact performer to improve a roster that was good enough to go 13-3 and reach the NFC Championship Game last season. Needs such as receiver, offensive tackle and linebacker were either partially or fully ignored.

The analytics don’t care about all of that, though.

“This method is agnostic to the politics surrounding a pick, so when the Packers took Jordan Love in the first round, they got credit for taking a quarterback, which is obviously the most valuable position you could draft,” Vigderman wrote. “Taking Love makes their Total Points value higher than will actually manifest itself on their roster, assuming Rodgers is healthy in 2020. They also get credit for solid value from seventh-round edge Jonathan Garvin and fifth-round LB Kamal Martin, who are rated by Total Points as their highest-producing players behind Love and second-round pick AJ Dillon.”

Bill Huber wrote:



It's a little crazy to see what outliers the Ravens and Vikings were by that metric.

Saving graphic here for posterity:

 image.png You have insufficient rights to see the content.
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Zero2Cool
4 years ago
Why don't people aggressively grade drafts that we have actually seen play games in the NFL? I just don't understand any attempt whatsoever to grade kids who haven't even suited up for a single NFL practice. It feels like such an utter waste of time and energy. It's annoying as people who put out dozens of mock drafts and then Tweet "I had player x going there in mock draft 43,021".


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Cheesey
4 years ago
These “experts” all want to look like the best. Being as there isn’t anything yet to prove them right or wrong, they can say this team did a great draft, or a sucky draft, and there’s nothing to prove them wrong.
And if future results prove they were right, they will yell how right they were. If they are proven wrong, they won’t make a peep.
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porky88
4 years ago
The results of the draft won’t be known for at least 2 years. Calling any draft good or bad right now is subjective. Let’s wait until we get actual data (e.g., production on the field) before jumping to conclusions.
Smokey
4 years ago

The results of the draft won’t be known for at least 2 years. Calling any draft good or bad right now is subjective. Let’s wait until we get actual data (e.g., production on the field) before jumping to conclusions.

Originally Posted by: porky88 



"The proof of the pudding is in the eating". An old saying that, IMO, fits the Packers. Few at this time last year believed that GB could reach a 13-3 regular season record. Some held to hope that Rashan Gary would justify being GB's 1st round draft pick. Others cried that GB could not stop a snail on defense.

The Packers are not rebuilding, but they are evolving. Yes evolving into HC LaFleur's offensive system that is based first on running the football and inserting the pass at strategic opportunity/need. This calls for better blocking/running that makes defenses respect the run and loosen some passing plays up with less strict coverages. The 2019 Packers were just a taste of what this offensive system can be. GM Gutekunst is on board with this philosophy and is not allowing himself to be sidetracked in draft/FA player selections. It's not the same old system that so many other teams still cling to. Rather it is the new cutting edge and therefor for some they have not yet grasped the logic involved.

Placing greater emphasis upon a dominant running attack eases the pressure on the passing game. That said, it does not mean that the poor 2019 WR production will be overlooked. I see GM Gutekunst working to improve both areas, but in his own way.

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Fan Shout
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Zero2Cool (17h) : doubt he wants to face the speedsters
beast (17h) : Dolphins offense can be explosive... I wonder if we'll have Alexander back
Zero2Cool (18h) : No Doubs could be issue Thursday
Mucky Tundra (23h) : Bears. Santos. Blocked FG
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Bears. Vikings. OT
Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Thems the breaks I guess
Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Two players out and Williams had an injury designation this week but Oladapo is a healthy scratch
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Packers inactives vs 49ers: • CB Jaire Alexander • S Kitan Oladapo • LB Edgerrin Cooper • OL Jacob Monk
TheKanataThrilla (24-Nov) : Aaron Jones with a costly red zone fumble
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : When we trade Malik for a 1st rounder, we'll need a new QB2.
packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : Report: Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2025, but not for the Jets
beast (23-Nov) : That's what I told the Police officer about my speed when he pulled me over
packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : NFL told Bears that Packers’ blocked field goal was legal
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : 49ers are underdogs at Packers, ending streak of 36 straight games as favorites
Zero2Cool (22-Nov) : 49ers might be down their QB, DL, TE and LT?
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : Jaire Alexander says he has a torn PCL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked
Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Backup QB helped with three wins. Special Teams contributed to three wins.
bboystyle (18-Nov) : Lions played outside thats why. They scored 16 and 17 in the only 2 outside games this year
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : The rest of the NFL is catching up to Packers ... kicking is an issue throughout league
packerfanoutwest (18-Nov) : Packers DL Kenny Clark: We knew 'we were going to block' Bears' game-winning field goal attempt
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Lions seem to be throttling everyone, but only (only) got 24 lol maybe the rain is why
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Packers vs Lions game doesn't seem so bad.
beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
Mucky Tundra (17-Nov) : my worst case scenario: Bears fix their oline and get a coach like Johnson from the Lions and his scheme
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