Film Review: Clay Matthews

gbguy20
Veteran Member Topic Starter

6 years ago

News broke earlier this week that Clay Matthews and the Packers have had initial discussions towards a contract extension for the 32-year-old linebacker. Whether those contract discussions evolve into an actual extension for the longtime Packers’ playmaker remain to be seen. Maybe the bigger question for a lot of Packer fans is whether or not Green Bay should be looking to bring back Matthews and just exactly how much value does he add at this point in his career?

There seem to be two differing camps on Matthews. The first believes that Matthews is nowhere near worth his $11,368,750 salary cap hit this season and that Green Bay would be better served releasing Matthews ($10,868,750 savings) and using that money elsewhere. There is another camp that seemingly feels that Matthews is the same player he’s always been and that he’s still a premier edge rusher and dominant defensive player at age 32. As usual, the answer lies somewhere in the middle.
Clay Matthews is not an elite edge rusher or linebacker anymore; but he’s a really good football player that adds a lot of value to the Packers. When I graded every player last year on the Packers, Clay still graded as my third best defensive player behind only Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels.

Pro Football Focus ranked Matthews the 22nd best edge rusher in football a season ago (ahead of players like Danielle Hunter, Justin Houston, Brian Orakpo, Olivier Vernon, Nick Perry, Jadeveon Clowney, Jerry Hughes, Cameron Wake, Julius Peppers, T.J. Watt, etc…) and Bleacher Report had him as the 15th best 3-4 outside linebacker.
I’d firmly put Clay Matthews in a 2nd tier of edge rushers. You can see the list I’ve made below. All of these edge rushers are on at least their 2nd contract, aren’t quite elite players anymore, and all graded in the same realm by Bleacher Report and PFF. In fact Clay had the 2nd best PFF grade of anyone on the list below besides Jones. As you can also see, Clay isn’t making this ridiculous amount of money when you compare him to his peers at the position; in actuality he’s at or slightly below what he probably should be getting paid based on the contracts of the below players:

The biggest thing with Clay Matthews is that everyone probably needs to recalibrate a little bit to see exactly what he is worth is on the Packers’ roster. The biggest sticking point for a lot of people seems to be his exorbitant cap hit but as we can see above, he’s really not being vastly overpaid in comparison to others who are very similarly rated at his position.
Now… to those who still say he’s a high caliber edge rusher who wreaks havoc and should be making the Pro Bowl, unfortunately I don’t believe that’s quite the case, either. Zach Kruse did a fantastic workup earlier this year of Clay Matthew’s sacks and near misses: https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/06/27/reviewing-all-of-clay-matthews-sacks-in-2017/
What you can see here is that when Matthews was getting sacks, he wasn’t exactly beating premier NFL tackles. In fact he only had one sack all season against a left tackle and that was against James Hurst who really is probably better suited to play guard and either way isn’t a starting caliber left tackle.
Statistically, Matthews has declined as well. He hasn’t had double digit sacks since 2014, and hasn’t had back-to-back double digit sack seasons since 2009-2010—his first two seasons in the league. Matthews also continues to struggle to stay healthy. While he’s played in double digit games in every year of his career, he’s only played in all 16 games three times out of his nine seasons. His last 16 game season was back in 2015. He also isn’t making the flash plays that he used to either. He hasn’t had an interception since week one of 2015 and has only forced two fumbles in his last three seasons combined. For comparison sake he had three interceptions and three forced fumbles in 2011 alone.
Here’s what I see on tape:
High Effort / High Intensity
No sack obviously but Matthews ends the competitive portion of that play. pic.twitter.com/jOkD9sc6ZK
— Ross Uglem (@RossUglem) September 25, 2017

Great job by Clay here slowing down the timing of the route by the back, then taking the angle to Flacco. pic.twitter.com/4VDWOc3V0U
— Packers Film Room (@PTTF_ChalkTalk) January 14, 2018

Daniels/Clay on a T/E here.. Scherff barely recovered but Clay got the QB hit pic.twitter.com/B37PWiJVZX
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) August 21, 2017

I love seeing players set the tone on the first play of the game. Here Daniels walks the center right back into the rb while Matthews screams off the edge and forces the run back inside resulting in a tfl. pic.twitter.com/P8nynqnywA
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) November 16, 2017
Playmaking ability
Clay Matthews isn't washed yet. #Packers #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/XiQtueeA5w
— Dusty All 22 (@All22Talk) September 21, 2017

One of my favorite plays of the game. Daniels, Matthews & Clark all just showing off their power. I’m not sure which I’m more impressed by: Daniels splitting the double team, Clark’s raw power or Clays’ ability to disengage for the sack. pic.twitter.com/gNgIFmK9yG
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) December 7, 2017

This is what GB expected a bit more of out of Clay & Brooks this year. Speed off the edge from Clay & power from Brooks. Meet at the QB. pic.twitter.com/hgM4Us1pFt
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) November 24, 2017

How fast do you want Clay to win? But because it’s not a sack and we can’t cover.. Clay Matthews has nothing left? GTFO pic.twitter.com/rPgiOZWR1o
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) April 13, 2018
Excellent Hand Usage
Matthews was quietly good yesterday and has been quietly good all season. pic.twitter.com/MESdmpb3DK
— Ross Uglem (@RossUglem) September 29, 2017

Clay Matthews with a good punch, gets to inside shoulder and just drives back to Kizer. Ends it with an emphatic chop. #Packers #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/cYNps4FPhl
— Dusty All 22 (@All22Talk) December 11, 2017

Pass Rush of the Day: Speed Counter Bull by @ClayMatthews52 . If the OL oversets your Speed Path Rush, you've got to Counter inside #DLIsBringingTheEnergy pic.twitter.com/SfnV5ntUpf
— Willie Cashmore (@WillieCashmore) June 17, 2018

Clay Matthews (@ClayMatthews52 ) reads play action, double swipes the TE's hands away & closes on the QB for a strip-sack! #Packers pic.twitter.com/JFGSfhX5rf
— DLineVids (@DLineVids) May 27, 2018
Can’t consistently win against starting tackles
Clay... pic.twitter.com/w5wnTGVdWf
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) November 10, 2017

I'm not a fan of B gap stunts by outside backers. Burnett becomes the force player here but Matthews gets totally washed out of the play pic.twitter.com/QvyZskot0w
— Packers Film Room (@PTTF_ChalkTalk) April 15, 2018
Versatility
Injuries force GB into their “quad” set with Lowry at DLE. Excellent coverage by Matthews and a great play by @RandallTime . pic.twitter.com/uAWpO37woA
— Ross Uglem (@RossUglem) October 11, 2017

That’s a helluva PBU by a pass rusher like Clay. pic.twitter.com/bVNd2gGyMJ
— Ross Uglem (@RossUglem) October 11, 2017

Here is an example of Matthews playing in the 3 tech. Not a bad look pic.twitter.com/58LmrdPmRM
— Packers Film Room (@PTTF_ChalkTalk) September 12, 2017
Fackrell clears out edge for Matthews stunt while Brooks simply tosses his man to the ground. Great pressure. #Packers #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/jBETUU4vl3
— Dusty All 22 (@All22Talk) September 28, 2017

Subtle but impressive.. Watch the jam from Clay on Zach Ertz down the seam on this 3rd down. (Yea QB bought time for slot to uncover) pic.twitter.com/BNTIzFZRxu
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) August 11, 2017

I always liked Clay off-ball bc he did everything full speed - he sees it, he hits it. He's fast, athletic, wreckless.. Let em play in space pic.twitter.com/tBRO0w8NBL
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 12, 2017

Love pressures w/ Clay Matthews coming from an interior alignment - whether a Fire X up the middle or a rodeo stunt here.. CM flies around pic.twitter.com/FdgaeP04Of
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 12, 2017

This went for a td but the defensive play design was great. Clay 'hidden' as a down linemen loops to his left as the rest eat blockers. pic.twitter.com/8YnkBWe0dI
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) August 15, 2017
Dominant Edge Setter / Run Defender
My play of the year from Clay Matthews... Doesn’t show up when you look up ‘sacks’ after the season but this play was awesome... pic.twitter.com/HkLpB2FlcV
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) April 13, 2018

Clay Matthews holding his block on the outside before slipping it at the perfect moment to make a nice tackle in the backfield. #Packers pic.twitter.com/7CISSBq0rp
— Dusty All 22 (@All22Talk) January 4, 2018

Impressive run defense by Matthews & Dial. Both made quick work of the o-linemen and blew up the play in the backfield. pic.twitter.com/OOh60yZ4HR
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) September 20, 2017

Kenny Clark really starting to flash. Takes on the guard w/ ease and makes the tfl. Nice play by Clay as well. pic.twitter.com/z8JuwBEtnZ
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) August 15, 2017

Green Bay has to find a way to get more plays like this from Clay. He goes from reading the play to making a play in the backfield in an instant. Hell of a play. pic.twitter.com/Fodi4ellDc
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) November 10, 2017

GB ran some of this last year but I like where Clay is lined up here. A lot of opportunity to use him in a variety of ways from this spot. pic.twitter.com/syAIBvxi3B
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) August 5, 2018

Clay Matthews still so spry, bouncy, athletic, relentless.. Loves to shoot gaps and time snaps. Welcome to NFL Ramczyk - no chance here pic.twitter.com/gQH5uiGD4e
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 25, 2017
What really stands out above to me is Clay’s versatility. He puts highlight plays on tape in coverage, run defense and pass defense. He can win as an edge rusher, edge setter, a linebacker in coverage, as a blitzer, or with just about anything else you ask him to do. He can bring so much to a team that it’s always incredibly tough to replace him when he’s out due to injury.
Matthews is a really good football player at age 32, heading into his 10th season with the Packers. He’s not as good as he used to be and he’s not a Pro Bowl caliber player anymore; but he’s still a top three defensive player on the team and he consistently helps the Packers win on defense. His value could be debated forever but as the chart above shows he’s certainly not egregiously overpaid, at least in comparison to similar players around the league. Is he worth another big contract? That answer will largely be up to how Matthews performs in 2018; and let’s hope for all parties involved that he has one more dominant performance left in him for 2018.
Make sure to tune in Friday’s at 9:50am on WDUZ: http://www.thefan1075.com/
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Andy Herman is an avid Packers fan and season ticket holder. He has graduated from National Football Post's and Sports Management Worldwide's NFL Scouting courses and is the owner of the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Find him on Twitter [URL=https://twitter.com/sconniesports" target="_blank]@sconniesports[/URL].
NFL Categories:[URL=/taxonomy/term/12336" typeof="skos:Concept" property="rdfs:label skos:prefLabel" datatype="]Green Bay Packers[/URL]Tags:[URL=/blog/category/green-bay-packers" typeof="skos:Concept" property="rdfs:label skos:prefLabel" datatype="]Green Bay Packers[/URL][URL=/tag/packers" typeof="skos:Concept" property="rdfs:label skos:prefLabel" datatype="]packers[/URL][URL=/tag/clay-matthews" typeof="skos:Concept" property="rdfs:label skos:prefLabel" datatype="]Clay Matthews[/URL][URL=/tag/film-review" typeof="skos:Concept" property="rdfs:label skos:prefLabel" datatype="]film review[/URL][URL=/tag/friday-film-room" typeof="skos:Concept" property="rdfs:label skos:prefLabel" datatype="]Friday Film Room[/URL]
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Continue Reading @ [url=http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CheeseheadTv/~3/uq6mPJ6ai6U/film-review-clay-matthews-426]CheeseheadTV

CheeseheadTV wrote:

Really starting to like this site. High effort. Good article about clay.

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nerdmann
Premier Member

6 years ago

Pettine SHOULD be able to scheme Clay to the QB. Dom was doing the opposite of that, sucking shit so bad that it made Clay's job more difficult.

We shall see.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

sschind
Senior Member

6 years ago

I think he is wrong about the two camps. I don't think anyone really believes Mathews is the same player he used to be.

He is right though. Even though his best days are behind him (I'd venture a guess that the vast majority of 32 year old football players' best days are behind them) he can still be a valuable asset to the Packers. I'll go so far as to say he can even be 11 million dollars valuable. I'd be open to an extension that would bring his cap hit down to around 7-8 million a year over the next 3 years .

Convert 9 million of his 2018 salary to signing bonus on a 2 year extension and that makes his cap hit this year around 5.4 million (base 1.4, SB 3, other bonuses 1) Then give him a salary of 4.5 million and 5.5 million in 2019 and 2020 for cap hits of 7.5 and 8.5. Those numbers seem low to me and who knows, Clay may just laugh at them but he will be 33 next year and I don't know how much more a 33 year old on the downside of his career would command. I'm just using them as an example of numbers that I would be comfortable with. Its also a number that I think would be workable for the next 3 years. If he goes anywhere else and gets a significant amount more its likely that its a 2 or 3 year deal max and if it is 3 I'd guess he would be a cap casualty by year three.

As much as I disagree with the premise of athletes giving home town discounts I think that applies more to up and coming free agents set to make a huge payday and not the opposite end of the spectrum. I could see a player like Matthews wanting to finish his career in GB where he started and made a household name of himself. So much so that he may forego a few million to make it happen. Especially if any extension does not result in him losing any money he has already agreed to. I also think he would be a valuable asset at a reduced price.

Cheesey
Preferred Member

6 years ago

CM3 hasn’t been the dominating player he was when he first got here.
Is it his age? Is it a lack of drive since he got a Super Bowl ring? Is it the lowering of talent around him? Is it that he can’t stay healthy? Is not being able to stay healthy somethinghe is or isn’t doing? Is it that they arnt using him properly anymore to play to his talents? Is it “all of the above?”

I just don’t know. If he can show he still has “it” this year, then maybe he’s worth keeping. If not, let him go. He hasn’t been worth the high pay he gets in recent years. (Just my opinion, of course)

gbguy20
Veteran Member Topic Starter

6 years ago

CM3 will have a huge year. As long as he listens to my yoga suggestion.

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KRK
Veteran Member

6 years ago

With the push we are likely to get up the middle, he had better have a huge year. He as been a major disappointment the last two years with meaningful sacks (not 3 against Cleveland) being way down. He also does not set a good edge. In this regard, he is not nearly as good as Perry.

In Luce tua Videmus Lucem KRK

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