StealthieCat
7 years ago
For the sake of this argument - let's say the Packers are the greatest team in the NFL for 6 years. They are so great that they cruise to a first round bye every season. And they have a huge edge against all playoff teams - so much so that they will win 65% of the time in ALL match-ups, no matter how difficult the opponent is.

What is the most likely # of Super Bowl wins the Packers will obtain under these circumstances over those 6 years?

Well, each year they have to win 3 games as a 65% favorite in each game. So the odds of winning the Super Bowl each year are (.65)^3 = ~ .2746

Meaning the odds of not winning the Super Bowl each year are 1 - .2746 = .7254.

Over 6 years, there are 64 possible combos of winning/not winning the Super Bowl:

Winning 6 = (.2746)^6 x 1 combo
Winning 5 = (.2746)^5 x (.7254)^1 x 6 combos (could lose year 1 or year 2 or year 3, etc.)
Winning 4 = (.2746)^4 x (.7254)^2 x 15 combos
Winning 3 = (.2746)^3 x (.7254)^3 x 20 combos
Winning 2 = (.2746)^2 x (.7254)^4 x 15 combos
Winning 1 = (.2746)^1 x (.7254)^5 x 6 combos
Winning 0 = (.7254)^6 x 1 combo

Using actual # instead of approximations....

Winning 6 = .0429 % or 2330.1 to 1
Winning 5 = .6799 % or 146.1 to 1
Winning 4 = 4.489 % or 21.3 to 1
Winning 3 = 15.81 % or 5.3 to 1
Winning 2 = 31.32 % or 2.2 to 1
Winning 1 = 33.09 % or 2 to 1
Winning 0 = 14.57 % or 5.9 to 1

Winning exactly 1 Super Bowl is the most likely outcome in this scenario.

And these are ridiculous circumstances. Injuries can easily ruin a season or at least cost a first round bye which make the odds of winning much much lower. Roster turnover over the course of 6 years makes it extremely difficult to maintain this kind of dominance. Not to mention that there are a lot of very talented teams in the NFL, one team having a 65% advantage over any team is very unrealistic. Edges are much smaller than that in reality. So all of the aforementioned numbers are going to be far lower. This is why even the most successful teams and players win very few, if any Super Bowls.

Take it from someone who roots for some pretty terrible teams in other sports - the Packers are awesome. They have won some incredibly exciting games over the years. They've made the playoffs 8 years in a row and won 1 Super Bowl - this is right at, if not above expectation of where they should be if you do the math. Don't let absurd expectations of winning several Super Bowls get to you. Enjoy what you have - it's pretty damn good.
shield4life
7 years ago
Tell that to the Patriots, 49ers, Steelers ...
Glad To Be A Packers Fan.
uffda udfa
7 years ago
When a winner hears about odds he works his balls off to defy them.

When a loser hears about the odds he is crushed by the weight of them and cites them as a reason for his failure.
UserPostedImage
Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."


DoddPower
7 years ago
I think the most frustrating thing about the Packers is that they are consistently only a few pieces away from being a true contender. They are close, but fail to address a few glaring holes that could substantially increase their chances of being a true contender.
mojaveson
7 years ago

I think the most frustrating thing about the Packers is that they are consistently only a few pieces away from being a true contender. They are close, but fail to address a few glaring holes that could substantially increase their chances of being a true contender.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



You got it exactly right. It's frustrating that we see the glaring holes, but the front office doesn't address them. [frust]
Winners never quit and quitters never win. - Vince Lombardi
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Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Bears. Vikings. OT
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Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Two players out and Williams had an injury designation this week but Oladapo is a healthy scratch
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Packers inactives vs 49ers: • CB Jaire Alexander • S Kitan Oladapo • LB Edgerrin Cooper • OL Jacob Monk
TheKanataThrilla (24-Nov) : Aaron Jones with a costly red zone fumble
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : When we trade Malik for a 1st rounder, we'll need a new QB2.
packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : Report: Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2025, but not for the Jets
beast (23-Nov) : That's what I told the Police officer about my speed when he pulled me over
packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : NFL told Bears that Packers’ blocked field goal was legal
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : 49ers are underdogs at Packers, ending streak of 36 straight games as favorites
Zero2Cool (22-Nov) : 49ers might be down their QB, DL, TE and LT?
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : Jaire Alexander says he has a torn PCL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked
Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Backup QB helped with three wins. Special Teams contributed to three wins.
bboystyle (18-Nov) : Lions played outside thats why. They scored 16 and 17 in the only 2 outside games this year
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : The rest of the NFL is catching up to Packers ... kicking is an issue throughout league
packerfanoutwest (18-Nov) : Packers DL Kenny Clark: We knew 'we were going to block' Bears' game-winning field goal attempt
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Lions seem to be throttling everyone, but only (only) got 24 lol maybe the rain is why
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Packers vs Lions game doesn't seem so bad.
beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
Mucky Tundra (17-Nov) : my worst case scenario: Bears fix their oline and get a coach like Johnson from the Lions and his scheme
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