StealthieCat
7 years ago
For the sake of this argument - let's say the Packers are the greatest team in the NFL for 6 years. They are so great that they cruise to a first round bye every season. And they have a huge edge against all playoff teams - so much so that they will win 65% of the time in ALL match-ups, no matter how difficult the opponent is.

What is the most likely # of Super Bowl wins the Packers will obtain under these circumstances over those 6 years?

Well, each year they have to win 3 games as a 65% favorite in each game. So the odds of winning the Super Bowl each year are (.65)^3 = ~ .2746

Meaning the odds of not winning the Super Bowl each year are 1 - .2746 = .7254.

Over 6 years, there are 64 possible combos of winning/not winning the Super Bowl:

Winning 6 = (.2746)^6 x 1 combo
Winning 5 = (.2746)^5 x (.7254)^1 x 6 combos (could lose year 1 or year 2 or year 3, etc.)
Winning 4 = (.2746)^4 x (.7254)^2 x 15 combos
Winning 3 = (.2746)^3 x (.7254)^3 x 20 combos
Winning 2 = (.2746)^2 x (.7254)^4 x 15 combos
Winning 1 = (.2746)^1 x (.7254)^5 x 6 combos
Winning 0 = (.7254)^6 x 1 combo

Using actual # instead of approximations....

Winning 6 = .0429 % or 2330.1 to 1
Winning 5 = .6799 % or 146.1 to 1
Winning 4 = 4.489 % or 21.3 to 1
Winning 3 = 15.81 % or 5.3 to 1
Winning 2 = 31.32 % or 2.2 to 1
Winning 1 = 33.09 % or 2 to 1
Winning 0 = 14.57 % or 5.9 to 1

Winning exactly 1 Super Bowl is the most likely outcome in this scenario.

And these are ridiculous circumstances. Injuries can easily ruin a season or at least cost a first round bye which make the odds of winning much much lower. Roster turnover over the course of 6 years makes it extremely difficult to maintain this kind of dominance. Not to mention that there are a lot of very talented teams in the NFL, one team having a 65% advantage over any team is very unrealistic. Edges are much smaller than that in reality. So all of the aforementioned numbers are going to be far lower. This is why even the most successful teams and players win very few, if any Super Bowls.

Take it from someone who roots for some pretty terrible teams in other sports - the Packers are awesome. They have won some incredibly exciting games over the years. They've made the playoffs 8 years in a row and won 1 Super Bowl - this is right at, if not above expectation of where they should be if you do the math. Don't let absurd expectations of winning several Super Bowls get to you. Enjoy what you have - it's pretty damn good.
shield4life
7 years ago
Tell that to the Patriots, 49ers, Steelers ...
Glad To Be A Packers Fan.
uffda udfa
7 years ago
When a winner hears about odds he works his balls off to defy them.

When a loser hears about the odds he is crushed by the weight of them and cites them as a reason for his failure.
UserPostedImage
Ted Thompson sits on his hands per former GM: "because they’ve had 25 fricking years of great quarterbacks. Of course it works. Try it without a special quarterback."


DoddPower
7 years ago
I think the most frustrating thing about the Packers is that they are consistently only a few pieces away from being a true contender. They are close, but fail to address a few glaring holes that could substantially increase their chances of being a true contender.
mojaveson
7 years ago

I think the most frustrating thing about the Packers is that they are consistently only a few pieces away from being a true contender. They are close, but fail to address a few glaring holes that could substantially increase their chances of being a true contender.

Originally Posted by: DoddPower 



You got it exactly right. It's frustrating that we see the glaring holes, but the front office doesn't address them. [frust]
Winners never quit and quitters never win. - Vince Lombardi
Fan Shout
beast (2h) : He's a review guy
Zero2Cool (3h) : Jordy Nelson is still in the NFL.
Zero2Cool (11-Nov) : Ok, will do.
wpr (11-Nov) : Kevin, donate it to a local food pantry or whatever she wants to do with it. Thanks
wpr (11-Nov) : Kevin,
Zero2Cool (11-Nov) : Wayne, got your girl scout order.
dfosterf (11-Nov) : I believe Zero was being sarcastic
dfosterf (11-Nov) : Due to that rookie kicker Jake Bates that Zero said "he didn't want anyway". 58 yarder to tie the game, 52 yarder to win it. In fairness,
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : Lions escape with a win
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : and now Goff looking better
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : Goff with ANOTHER INT
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : and now Stroud throwing INTs
Mucky Tundra (11-Nov) : Goff having an ATROCIOUS game
wpr (11-Nov) : Happy birthday Corps. Ever faithful. Thanks dfosterf.
Mucky Tundra (10-Nov) : stiff armed by Baker Mayfield for about 5-7 yards and still managed to get a pass off
Mucky Tundra (10-Nov) : Nick Bosa
wpr (8-Nov) : Jets are Packers (L)East
Zero2Cool (8-Nov) : Jets released K Riley Patterson and signed K Anders Carlson to the practice squad.
wpr (8-Nov) : Thanks guys
Mucky Tundra (7-Nov) : Happy Birthday wpr!
Zero2Cool (7-Nov) : Anders Carlson ... released by 49ers
dfosterf (7-Nov) : Happy Birthday!😊😊😊
wpr (7-Nov) : Thanks Kevin.
Zero2Cool (7-Nov) : Happy Birthday, Wayne! 🎉🎂🥳
beast (7-Nov) : Edge Rushers is the same... it's not the 4-3 vs 3-4 change, it's the Hafley's version of the 4-3... as all 32 teams are actually 4-2
Zero2Cool (6-Nov) : OLB to DE and player requests trade. Yet folks say they are same.
beast (5-Nov) : In other news, the Green Bay Packers have signed Zero2Cool to update their website 😋 jk
beast (5-Nov) : Might just re-sign the kicker we got
beast (5-Nov) : Are there any kickers worth drafting next year?
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Preston Smith for Malik Willis
Mucky Tundra (5-Nov) : Getting a 7th rounder from the Stillers
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : At least we get 7th round pick now!! HELLO NEW KICKER
Mucky Tundra (5-Nov) : Steelers getting a premier lockdown corner!
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Packers are trading edge rusher Preston Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers, per sources.
Mucky Tundra (5-Nov) : Preston Smith traded to the Steelers!!!!
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : CB Marshon Lattimore to Commanders
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Bears are sending RB Khalil Herbert to the Bengals, per sources.
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : ZaDarius Smith continues his "north" tour.
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Let the Chiefs trade a 5th for him
Zero2Cool (5-Nov) : Nearing 30, large contract, nope.
Martha Careful (5-Nov) : any interest in Marshon Lattimore?
Zero2Cool (4-Nov) : What does NFL do if they're over cap?
Mucky Tundra (4-Nov) : They've been able to constantly push it out through extensions, void years etc but they're in the hole by 72 million next year I believe
hardrocker950 (4-Nov) : Seems the Saints are always in cap hell
Mucky Tundra (4-Nov) : Saints HC job is not an envious one; gonna be in cap hell for 3 years
Mucky Tundra (4-Nov) : Dennis Allen has now been fired twice mid-season with Derek Carr as his starting QB
Zero2Cool (4-Nov) : Kuhn let go
beast (4-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers would have any interest in Z. Smith, probably not
Zero2Cool (4-Nov) : Shefter says Browns and Lions will figure out how to get a deal done for Za'Darius Smith..
Zero2Cool (4-Nov) : Packers are more likely to have 1,000 yard rusher than 4,000 yard passer
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2024 Packers Schedule
Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
Eagles
Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
Titans
Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
Rams
Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
CARDINALS
Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
Jaguars
Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
Bears
Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
49ERS
Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
DOLPHINS
Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
Seahawks
Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Dec 29 @ 12:00 PM
Vikings
Saturday, Jan 4 @ 11:00 PM
BEARS
Recent Topics
3h / Featured Content / Zero2Cool

5h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

11-Nov / Around The NFL / beast

11-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

11-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

9-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / joepacker

8-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / buckeyepackfan

6-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

6-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

5-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

5-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

5-Nov / Featured Content / Zero2Cool

5-Nov / GameDay Threads / Cheesey

5-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

5-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.