porky88
  • porky88
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
11 years ago
None of us knows whether the Packers will dive into free agency, but if they do, it’s because they’ve failed to develop several of their draft picks over the last four draft classes.

This year marks Ted Thompson's 10th draft as Green Bay's general manager. His conservative approach to free agency worked in the first half of his tenure in Green Bay. In 2005-2009, he was a genius at working the draft. The team’s developmental program was also very good. Thompson is still very good, maybe near the top. The same goes for Green Bay’s developmental program, but it’s not working as well as it did. Let's examine his record...

Cyan Designates a All-Pro Caliber Player
Red Designates a High-Level Starter
Yellow Designates -- Mid-Tier Starter

2005-2009
Aaron Rodgers
Nick Collins

A.J. Hawk
Daryn Colledge
Greg Jennings
Johnny Jolly
James Jones
Desmond Bishop
Mason Crosby
Jordy Nelson
Jermichael Finley
Josh Sitton
B.J. Raji
Clay Matthews
T.J. Lang
Brad Jones

2010-2013
Bryan Bulaga
Mike Neal
Morgan Burnett
Randall Cobb
Davone House
Casey Heyward
Mike Daniels
Eddie Lacy
David Bakhtiari
Micah Hyde


He’s short five players with one draft to go. The jury is still out on Datone Jones and Nick Perry, so they could also boost the roster. However, I could’ve overvalued Hyde and Bakhtiari. The Packers also haven’t developed an all-pro player over the last four drafts, though it’s probable that Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy achieve this status. Mike Daniels and Casey Heyward are also candidates. Still, notice the dip in quality over the last four seasons. It's a trend. There’s more yellow or red instead of blue and red.

These aren't bad drafts. Several teams would love to have Cobb, Lacy, Heyward, and Daniels, but it’s enough for cracks to develop in the system. When cracks begin to form, you must use other resources (free agency, trades) to fill them. Now, I don’t believe the Packers will sign all-pro caliber free agents. There are very few available, but I do believe they can look at high-level or mid-tier starters. That’s something they haven’t done since 2006.

My view of the Packers needs and links to some of my free agency previews...

Center -- Re-signing Evan Dietrich-Smith is the best solution.
Tight End -- All I see are yellows in free agency . Re-signing Finley or drafting his replacement makes sense.
Outside Linebacker -- Re-signing Mike Neal is the best solution. It’s not a very good free-agent class.
Inside Linebacker -- Free Agency  or Draft
Defensive End -- Free Agency  or Draft
Nose Tackle -- Free Agency or Draft
Safety -- Free Agency  or Draft
Cornerback -- Re-signing Sam Shields solidifies the position, so cornerback is no longer a need.

Overall, the Packers have in-house candidates to help the positions along, but cracks are beginning to show. It’s not just safety. It's every layer of the defense. The Packers have to think about fixing these cracks. Can they rely solely on draft and develop? I think they can if their success rate returns to 2005-2009. Under the current path, though, that’s not happening.
steveishere
11 years ago
Kind of hard to do a comparison like that because Rodgers, Collins, Nelson, Sitton weren't exactly all-pro calibre for a few years after they were drafted. If you did the same analysis of those first drafts in 2008 it really doesn't look as good.
nerdmann
11 years ago

Kind of hard to do a comparison like that because Rodgers, Collins, Nelson, Sitton weren't exactly all-pro calibre for a few years after they were drafted. If you did the same analysis of those first drafts in 2008 it really doesn't look as good.

Originally Posted by: steveishere 



Hyde, Bakhtiari, Hayward, Perry and Datone Jones could very well be red chippers.

Again, my biggest problem is with the repeating injury situation.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
porky88
  • porky88
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
11 years ago

Kind of hard to do a comparison like that because Rodgers, Collins, Nelson, Sitton weren't exactly all-pro calibre for a few years after they were drafted. If you did the same analysis of those first drafts in 2008 it really doesn't look as good.

Originally Posted by: steveishere 


Clay Matthews was an all-pro player by year two. Josh Sitton didn’t receive the recognition, but he was one of the best guards in football throughout his second season. Those two players ascended rather quickly. Aaron Rodgers sat the bench, so that’s a bizarre circumstance, but he was a blue chipper by 2009. In fact, I would’ve put him in the red after 2008, which was his first year as a starter.

Players drafted in 2010 have four years of experience. There’s a body of work to examine now. Nick Collins became a blue chipper in 2008, which was his fourth season in the NFL. Jordy Nelson also became a blue chipper after his fourth season (2011) in the NFL. Nobody has achieved even red status from the 2010 class.

Only Randall Cobb and Davone House made the list from the 2011 class, with Cobb in the red and House in the yellow. You could argue House didn’t even deserve to make the list. Regardless, if it takes three years to examine a draft class, then 2011 is also fair game.

In Ted Thompson’s first five drafts, the number of blue and red chip players outnumbers the number of yellow chip players. In his last four drafts, the yellow chippers outnumber the blue and red chip players. My point isn’t that Thompson can’t work the draft anymore. If anything, you could argue he’s come back to earth after sustaining high-level success for five years. However, Thompson’s recent drafts (particularly 2010 & 2011) have not lived up to standard, creating holes in the roster. I think this is the main reason why the Packers may poke their head into free agency. They need to compensate for 2010 and 2011. It also explains why 2006 was such an active year for them in free agency. Mike Sherman's three drafts were terrible. They needed to compensate for that. Perhaps the Packers haven’t been cautious just for the sake of it over the last several years. Perhaps they’ve been cautious because the program worked so well for so long. The cracks are beginning to show, however, opening the door for another 2006.
play2win
11 years ago

Clay Matthews was an all-pro player by year two. Josh Sitton didn’t receive the recognition, but he was one of the best guards in football throughout his second season. Those two players ascended rather quickly. Aaron Rodgers sat the bench, so that’s a bizarre circumstance, but he was a blue chipper by 2009. In fact, I would’ve put him in the red after 2008, which was his first year as a starter.

Players drafted in 2010 have four years of experience. There’s a body of work to examine now. Nick Collins became a blue chipper in 2008, which was his fourth season in the NFL. Jordy Nelson also became a blue chipper after his fourth season (2011) in the NFL. Nobody has achieved even red status from the 2010 class.

Only Randall Cobb and Davone House made the list from the 2011 class, with Cobb in the red and House in the yellow. You could argue House didn’t even deserve to make the list. Regardless, if it takes three years to examine a draft class, then 2011 is also fair game.

In Ted Thompson’s first five drafts, the number of blue and red chip players outnumbers the number of yellow chip players. In his last four drafts, the yellow chippers outnumber the blue and red chip players. My point isn’t that Thompson can’t work the draft anymore. If anything, you could argue he’s come back to earth after sustaining high-level success for five years. However, Thompson’s recent drafts (particularly 2010 & 2011) have not lived up to standard, creating holes in the roster. I think this is the main reason why the Packers may poke their head into free agency. They need to compensate for 2010 and 2011. It also explains why 2006 was such an active year for them in free agency. Mike Sherman's three drafts were terrible. They needed to compensate for that. Perhaps the Packers haven’t been cautious just for the sake of it over the last several years. Perhaps they’ve been cautious because the program worked so well for so long. The cracks are beginning to show, however, opening the door for another 2006.

Originally Posted by: porky88 



hey porky88, I think there is some attrition in our front office that coincides with your figures. Losing Schneider and Dorsey from our personnel dept had to be a big blow to Thompson, and I think his drafting has suffered as a result.

I honestly thought last year was one of Ted's best, so maybe he has recovered a bit. Hopefully he can add more blue chip players moving forward. It seemed like he knew he needed to step it up last offseason in the draft, and I'm sure this offseason is no different.
nerdmann
11 years ago


In Ted Thompson’s first five drafts, the number of blue and red chip players outnumbers the number of yellow chip players. In his last four drafts, the yellow chippers outnumber the blue and red chip players. My point isn’t that Thompson can’t work the draft anymore. If anything, you could argue he’s come back to earth after sustaining high-level success for five years. However, Thompson’s recent drafts (particularly 2010 & 2011) have not lived up to standard, creating holes in the roster. I think this is the main reason why the Packers may poke their head into free agency. They need to compensate for 2010 and 2011. It also explains why 2006 was such an active year for them in free agency. Mike Sherman's three drafts were terrible. They needed to compensate for that. Perhaps the Packers haven’t been cautious just for the sake of it over the last several years. Perhaps they’ve been cautious because the program worked so well for so long. The cracks are beginning to show, however, opening the door for another 2006.

Originally Posted by: porky88 



When your team is stocked with talent already, it's harder for draft picks to crack the roster. That's no mystery.

These guys are good enough to play in the NFL. They're on other teams. They're just not good enough to make OUR team.

Thank you Ted.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
11 years ago
Great summary porky. It will be interesting to see if ted goes back to the FA pool and sticks his toe in the water or not. GB can certainly use a little help at a few positions.

As you suggest I have to wonder about Hyde and Bakhtiari's rating but for illustration purposes they can stay as they are. I might even throw House in too.
UserPostedImage
steveishere
11 years ago

Clay Matthews was an all-pro player by year two. Josh Sitton didn’t receive the recognition, but he was one of the best guards in football throughout his second season. Those two players ascended rather quickly. Aaron Rodgers sat the bench, so that’s a bizarre circumstance, but he was a blue chipper by 2009. In fact, I would’ve put him in the red after 2008, which was his first year as a starter.

Players drafted in 2010 have four years of experience. There’s a body of work to examine now. Nick Collins became a blue chipper in 2008, which was his fourth season in the NFL. Jordy Nelson also became a blue chipper after his fourth season (2011) in the NFL. Nobody has achieved even red status from the 2010 class.

Only Randall Cobb and Davone House made the list from the 2011 class, with Cobb in the red and House in the yellow. You could argue House didn’t even deserve to make the list. Regardless, if it takes three years to examine a draft class, then 2011 is also fair game.

In Ted Thompson’s first five drafts, the number of blue and red chip players outnumbers the number of yellow chip players. In his last four drafts, the yellow chippers outnumber the blue and red chip players. My point isn’t that Thompson can’t work the draft anymore. If anything, you could argue he’s come back to earth after sustaining high-level success for five years. However, Thompson’s recent drafts (particularly 2010 & 2011) have not lived up to standard, creating holes in the roster. I think this is the main reason why the Packers may poke their head into free agency. They need to compensate for 2010 and 2011. It also explains why 2006 was such an active year for them in free agency. Mike Sherman's three drafts were terrible. They needed to compensate for that. Perhaps the Packers haven’t been cautious just for the sake of it over the last several years. Perhaps they’ve been cautious because the program worked so well for so long. The cracks are beginning to show, however, opening the door for another 2006.

Originally Posted by: porky88 



The point is a side by side comparison really isn't fair because one side has a pretty clear advantage. In 2008 you would have had 0 blue chip players on your list besides maybe Greg Jennings. One other thing to keep in mind is those first drafts contain drafts where we got to pick 5,9, and 16 in each round plus you are comparing 5 draft classes to 4 draft classes.
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