Zero2Cool
11 years ago

The drop pass is , IMHO, the dumbest stat ever created.

A guy gets his hand on a ball thrown behind him and almost makes an unbeiievable one-handed catch but doesn't quite come up with it, well that counts as a dropped pass.

Originally Posted by: buckeyepackfan 



Stats from PFF.com - they rate them by if they were catchable, not by miracle or once in a season catch.
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buckeyepackfan
11 years ago

Stats from PFF.com - they rate them by if they were catchable, not by miracle or once in a season catch.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



That's my point, how do they determine whether the pass is catchable?

Is it just an opinion?
Is the the old "if a receiver touches the ball he should catch it" theory?
Do they factor in who was throwing the pass? Who was attempting to catch the pass?

I relate this stat to a catchers % of baserunners thrown out in baseball.

The guy may have the best arm in the league and the best technique of getting the ball to 2nd base, but if his pitching staff doesn't have a clue on how to hold a runner close to 1st base, those facts don't mattter.
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Zero2Cool
11 years ago

That's my point, how do they determine whether the pass is catchable?

Is it just an opinion?
Is the the old "if a receiver touches the ball he should catch it" theory?
Do they factor in who was throwing the pass? Who was attempting to catch the pass?

I relate this stat to a catchers % of baserunners thrown out in baseball.

The guy may have the best arm in the league and the best technique of getting the ball to 2nd base, but if his pitching staff doesn't have a clue on how to hold a runner close to 1st base, those facts don't mattter.

Originally Posted by: buckeyepackfan 



https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/01/21/signature-stats-drop-rate-wide-receivers/ 

provides some insight on it and I requested more information on it.


https://www.profootballfocus.com/about/grading/  <-- explains how they grade
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
11 years ago

The drop pass is , IMHO, the dumbest stat ever created.

A guy gets his hand on a ball thrown behind him and almost makes an unbeiievable one-handed catch but doesn't quite come up with it, well that counts as a dropped pass.

As wpr stated, it's not how many but when some of these passes are dropped that really matters.

Then there is always the "what happens after" the dropped pass.
I go back to 2010 Superbowl, Jordy Nelson drops a pass over the middle that would have been a 1st down, the very next play is the play he catches the ball over the middle and almost scores.

That 2nd play probably would have never been called if the 1st play was good and The Packers were operating with a 1st down.

James Jones has had a few critical drops in his career.
Last year almost everything thrown at him he came up with.

In the course of a season, players are going to drop some passes, but, especially The Packer receivers since 2007, have evened a lot of the dropped passes out by making some unbelievable catches.

IMHO dumbest stat ever!!!!!

Originally Posted by: buckeyepackfan 




I was thinking about Jordy and the SB drops (3 wasn't it?) when I posted.

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sschind
11 years ago
Randal Cobb is a God who catches everything and will lead the Packers back to the promised land. Surely the author simply misspelled James Jones
beast
11 years ago

Here's the TE and WR drop rates from ProFootballFocus.com.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 




Great numbers... just looking over them the differece between catchable passes and targets for Jones seemed to be a good difference.

Take the targets minus the catchable passes gives you the uncatchable passes number.
Take the uncatchable passes number and devide it by the target number gives you the uncatchable %s

Jennings over 34.58% uncatchable.

Jones over 27.95% uncatchable.

Nelson over 19.71% uncatchable.

Finley over 17.64% uncatchable.

Cobb over 10.78% uncatchable.


I know Cobb gets a lot of shorter passes, but Jones and Jennings number seem higher than others. Wondering if that's Rodgers just trying to get a pass off not to take a sack or higher throws or what.
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nerdmann
11 years ago
When Cobb drops one, it's just so shocking, because he's usually WIDE open.
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