wpr
  • wpr
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11 years ago

Injuries and unexpected absences are a fact of life in the NFL , and few teams around the league have had to deal with the quantity of serious injuries that the Packers have faced over the past few years. However, a well-run organization has the coaches to adapt to changing personnel and the depth of said personnel to step in for absent players and perform. Luckily, the Packers have done both successfully recently, winning the Super Bowl two years ago despite a multitude of injuries and earning the NFC North crown this year.

Because Green Bay played the San Francisco 49ers in week one of this year, a logical conclusion is that both teams have changed significantly between that game and the Divisional Round of the playoffs. But just how much of that change is actually significant in terms of personnel? Devin touched on the Packers' changing identity earlier, but I'll examine the actual roster changes that will make this week's game so very different from the one in Lambeau in early September. We'll also compare the number of changes on the Packers' roster to that of the 49ers to see if any interesting observations can be found.

The first table we'll see is the breakdown of players that were on each team's roster in week 1 who are not there now (and how they were removed from the roster), and the players who are taking their roster spots now:

Packers -
On Week 1 Roster

Benson, Cedric RB (IR)
Bulaga, Bryan T (IR)
Merling, Philip DE (waived)
Perry, Nick LB (IR)
Richardson, Sean S (IR)
Ross, Brandian CB (waived)
Saine, Brandon RB (IR)
Smith, D.J. LB (IR)

Divisional
Grant, Ryan RB
Harris, DuJuan RB
Miller, Jordan DT
Neal, Mike DE
Ross, Jeremy WR
Van Roten, Greg, OL
Walden, Erik LB
Zombo, Frank LB

49ers -
On Week 1 Roster

Dobbs, DeMarcus TE (IR)
Hunter, Kendall RB (IR)
Jacobs, Brandon RB (waived)
Williams, Kyle WR (IR)

Divisional
Cundiff, Billy K
Hampton, Jewel RB
Jerod-Eddie, Tony DT
Johnson, Cam LB
Wilhoite, Michael LB


When looking at the Packers' week one roster, I had almost totally forgotten that Neal and Walden were sitting out on suspension - Neal's for four games for substance abuse and Walden's a one-game suspension for personal conduct. The list is longer for the Packers, to be sure, with eight Packers no longer on the roster to five 49ers, but it doesn't really display the full effect and impact of those injuries like the following table does. Here we have the Packers' starters who have changed from the game in week 1 to those projected for this week:

Position............Week 1 Starter... Projected Starter
Running Back.....Cedric Benson.... DuJuan Harris
Center..............Jeff Saturday.... Evan Dietrich-Smith
Right Tackle.....Bryan Bulaga..... Don Barclay
Left Outside LB..Nick Perry ...... Erik Walden
Inside LB..........D.J. Smith ...... Brad Jones
Cornerback.......Jarrett Bush..... Sam Shields

Two of those changes were made due to poor play (center and corner), but the other four were due to season-ending injuries. As for the 49ers, there is only one entry on a similar table: at quarterback, Alex Smith will sit in favor of Colin Kaepernick. It's a major change at the most important position on the field, but it demonstrates that the Packers have dealt with several more injuries to starters and key players than the 49ers.

Do you need another example of this? Let's look at a breakdown of how many players have started a certain number of games for each team in 2012 (regular season games only, as recorded by Pro Football Reference):


Games Started...Packers ....49ers
1+ ...............42 ...............29
5+ ...............31 ...............25
10+ .............17 ...............20
16 ............... 7 ................17

This might be the most staggering indication of how many players have been in and out of the Packers' lineup this year. By my count, the Packers had the most players start this season of any playoff team (Indianapolis was next with 41, then New England and Baltimore at 40), while the 49ers had the fewest (Denver was second-fewest with 32). Then notice as the games started goes up, the trends switch, with the 49ers having all but five positions on offense and defense started by the same person each game.

Having this many players start would naturally be undesirable, but it has allowed the Packers to develop some young players in ways that they could not in practice alone. Casey Hayward, for example, is no longer a starter, but he was in the starting lineup for several games while Sam Shields was out and appears to be a favorite for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. With Woodson and Matthews out for stretches, the defense went through some growing pains but held together and got some young players like Jerron McMillian and Dezman Moses valuable experience.

When looking at the rosters, these two teams are verry different from their week one identities, but for very different reasons. The Packers went through a lot of injuries and adversity, but emerged with a deeper team that has been getting key players back on the field in the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the 49ers have a different identity on offense because of a change at quarterback, but remain relatively similar otherwise. Saturday night will determine if these changes affect the results on the field.



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beast (5h) : Thank you, and I was really opening we were going to get 4 or more tied for the top 3.
beast (5h) : Thank you, and I was really opening we were going to get 4 or more tied for the top 3.
beast (5h) : Thank you, and I was really opening we were going to get 4 or more tied for the top 3
Zero2Cool (5h) : congrats beast on 2024 !
Zero2Cool (5h) : congrats porky on winning 2023 pick'em! (oops sorry)
Zero2Cool (6h) : Packers have $60M+ of 2025 cap space on paper TODAY.
Mucky Tundra (16h) : Missed FG into a Lions TD; that'll do pig, that'll do
Mucky Tundra (16h) : That might be it for the Vikings
Mucky Tundra (16h) : Oh so the refs do know what intentional grounding is
Mucky Tundra (17h) : what the hell was that Goff?! Not much pressure and he just air mails it to Harrison
Mucky Tundra (17h) : They really need to to get rid of the auto first down for illegal contact
Martha Careful (17h) : watching the Vikings and Lions it's understandable why they swept the Packers. So much better product
Mucky Tundra (17h) : Even when GB got pressure he was throwing darts; vs no pressure on that last pass he just air mails an open guy
Zero2Cool (17h) : didn't have guys in his face ... pressure makes difference
Mucky Tundra (17h) : Where was this Darnold vs GB?
Mucky Tundra (17h) : BALL DON'T LIE
Mucky Tundra (17h) : how was that not a safety? Goff throws it at an offensive lineman
Mucky Tundra (18h) : Zero, I thought that was a given! ;)
Mucky Tundra (18h) : Zero I looked through earlier and noticed the same thing. Bonkers year. I just wonder if beast put any money on games
Zero2Cool (18h) : I'm hoping for BLOODBATH. Pummel one another.
Zero2Cool (18h) : 8 people in pick'em would have won any year with their total lol
Mucky Tundra (18h) : I'm rooting for the Lions to lose.
Mucky Tundra (18h) : God help me but I'm rooting for the Vikings to...Vikings to...Christ I can't say it
Zero2Cool (19h) : 4 td for Rodgers
Zero2Cool (19h) : Chiefs got shutout
Zero2Cool (20h) : Rodgers passes for 3rd TD. might be last game of an amazing career
Mucky Tundra (20h) : "The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."
Zero2Cool (21h) : Owner ... love it
Zero2Cool (21h) : Mayo was the guy they groomed for HC and one of the reasons they let Bill go.
Mucky Tundra (21h) : Pats have the #4 pick, lots of cap space and Maye at QB; should fetch some attention
Mucky Tundra (21h) : Well that didn't take long; Jerod Mayo out as Patriots HC
Zero2Cool (22h) : I would expect it to be higher in favor of Eagles
Mucky Tundra (22h) : Thst line seems...generous
Zero2Cool (22h) : Eagles -3.5 over Packers in Wildcard Round
Mucky Tundra (22h) : Did it though? Pokes beat the Commanders on the road with Cooper Rush previously
Zero2Cool (5-Jan) : That gives them their best chance
Mucky Tundra (5-Jan) : Cowboys starting Trey Lance at QB vs Commanders; GB vs Philly in the Wild Card incoming!
Mucky Tundra (4-Jan) : Stinks for Lloyd. Hoping he comes back strong for next year
Zero2Cool (3-Jan) : Packers placed Marshawn Lloyd on reserve non-football illness list
Zero2Cool (3-Jan) : Luke Getsy been helping Packers defense. He's former OC Bears/Raiders and our old QB coach
beast (2-Jan) : Thanks dfosterf, I'm still kicking myself for last week, as I forgot to change to pick Vikings and Lions... after putting in a holding spot.
Zero2Cool (2-Jan) : First alternate: Elgton Jenkins Other alternates: Jordan Love, Kenny Clark, Keisean Nixon, Tucker Kraft, Josh Myers, Jaire Alexander
Zero2Cool (2-Jan) : Pro Bowl still a thing? Guess Packers have three. Jacobs, Gary, McKinney.
dfosterf (2-Jan) : It's a mine field with all the players sitting, etc
dfosterf (2-Jan) : There was quite a bit of "chalk" matchups this year it seemed, but not this week coming up
Zero2Cool (2-Jan) : Or we got better and by we I mean everyone except me
Zero2Cool (2-Jan) : We have about six that by percent would have won nearly any season. I guess 2024 was predictable 🤷
Zero2Cool (2-Jan) : You can check previous seasons. I quick did it and don't think anyone hit 70% before
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