Green Bay - Mike McCarthy would never admit it but, if truth be told, this season probably is unfolding just about the way he hoped it would.
It's midseason, and if the playoff picture of today would be the same two months from now, the Green Bay Packers would open on the road as one of two wild-card teams in the NFC.
That's the same route that the Packers took to their Super Bowl championship in 2010, as did two other teams - Pittsburgh (2005) and the New York Giants ('07) - in the last seven years.
Most importantly, at least in McCarthy's eyes, he would have a fresher team under his command than the one that laid an egg in January against the Giants at Lambeau Field.
In that game, the Packers turned the ball over four times, couldn't make a big play on offense and were chewed up on defense.
Everybody could see that.
There was an emotional factor as well. The son of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin was laid to rest 48 hours before kickoff.
McCarthy talked to a sports psychologist looking for answers. What effect, if any, the drowning death of Michael Philbin had on players never can be quantified.
After a few weeks of post-mortems on the team, McCarthy looked ahead.
"When something happens you've got to be critical of yourself," he said last month. "How can we play better at the end of the season? That's what Mike McCarthy asks himself every day."
The more McCarthy thought about it, the more he kept coming back to the energy and fitness level of the players that were overrun by the Giants, both physically and mentally.
Yes, the Packers were relieved to have off the opening weekend of the playoffs by virtue of their 15-1 regular season and No. 1 seeding. But remember what players often say: Once the hitting starts in training camp, you're never 100% fit until the off-season arrives and one's body has time to heal.
In February, McCarthy and Dom Capers, his defensive coordinator, had an extensive conversation about how to improve what had been a lousy defense. They looked at playing-time totals for players from scrimmage and on special teams, and neither liked what they saw.
Together, they reached the conclusion that too many players had played too many snaps before their most important game of the season against New York.
"I looked at the reps," McCarthy said. "Eleven guys played 1,000 reps. We're not built that way.
"Our whole February conversation was, 'OK, how can we get better with these guys?' "
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Bob McGinn  wrote: