macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
12 years ago
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/45722/how-the-packers-hope-to-improve 

Interesting article in the ESPN blog looking at stats from the last four SB teams. Couple of things leapt out at me:

Our 2011 D gave up more than 2x the number of TDs in the Red Zone than 2010, and the % of G2G TDs increased from 61 to 76%

Our 2011 D's numbers would have been good numbers for the 2011 Giants offense--Giants Offense had lower numbers for everything except RZ TDs, where they beat out our D by 1 (32 to 31).

While it will be challenging to duplicate last year's statistics, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have their sights set on improving in several key areas.
If you're not moving forward, you're going backward. I've never understood that aphorism. What about the times when you're so far ahead there seems nowhere to go? What if you're at 99.99999999? Are you going backward if you don't get to 100?

That's why I like the Confucian version of this thought. It doesn’t matter how slowly you go, so long as you do not stop. (Yes, I'm going deeeep here on a Tuesday afternoon.)

That, I think, is an appropriate way to look at the delicate but important balance the Green Bay Packers sought this summer after a 13-month run that included a Super Bowl championship and victories in 22 of 24 games. One of those losses was a playoff defeat to the New York Giants, the eventual Super Bowl XLVI champions. How do you encourage improvement and progress while still recognizing the reality of a precedent-setting run -- at least on offense?

I asked Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers that question during a training camp interview last month. Rodgers had already suggested the Packers would be a better team in 2012, even if it wasn't reflected in their record. (It's difficult, of course, to get to 16 victories when you're already at 15.) Rodgers noted the Packers' efforts to increase their energy level, but he also noted that coaches threw down an early-camp gauntlet of statistics to demonstrate the Packers' room for growth.

According to Rodgers, players have seen where the 2011 team ranked both offensively and defensively against the past four Super Bowl champions in a number of subtle but important categories. As best as I could tell, they include: •Third-down percentage
•Red zone touchdown percentage
•Red zone touchdowns
•Goal-to-go touchdown percentage

I haven't seen the charts that Rodgers referred to, but I've tried to re-create them the best I could in this post. Many thanks to Matt Willis of ESPN Stats & Information for the research and to blog editor Dan Jung, who formatted the charts as you see them. I have a number of thoughts, as I'm sure you will as well. But generally speaking, you can see there has been at least one team that exceeded or nearly matched the Packers' 2011 offensive production in each category. Meanwhile, the charts provide a more nuanced analysis of where the Packers fell short defensively last season than simply the passing yards they allowed.


2011 Packers Versus Previous Super Bowl Teams: Offense
 
Team...........3rd down pct.  Red Zone TD pct.  Red Zone TD   Goal-to-Go TD pct.
2011 Packers.......48.4.............63.6.............42.............80
2011 Giants........37.4.............55.2.............32.............71.9
2011 Patriots......45.9.............63...............46.............75.6
2010 Packers.......41.5.............58.2.............32.............73.5
2010 Steelers......43.1.............46.2.............24.............68
2009 Saints........44.7.............56.3.............40.............66.7
2009 Colts.........49.2.............62.3.............33.............79.3
2008 Steelers......41.3.............55.1.............27.............58.6
2008 Cardinals.....42.1.............58.5.............38.............66.7

Source: ESPN Stats & Information

"They've had a lot of times on their hands," Rodgers said, laughing. "If you just look at the stats by themselves, there is room for improvement … and they're challenging us to get maybe one more third down [conversion] per game to get us to this level, or one more conversion on the season in goal-to-go to get us to that ranking. If you look at it as a whole, it's going to be tough to put up the kind of numbers we did last year. But if you look at it like this, we can definitely improve."

For the most part, I think the message from Packers coaches strikes an appropriate balance between reality and progress. As proficient as the Packers were on offense last season, it's interesting to note that the 2009 Indianapolis Colts did a slightly better job of converting third downs. The 2011 New England Patriots scored more touchdowns in the red zone, and as crazy as the Packers' 80 percent conversation rate was when they were in goal-to-go situations, those 2009 Colts weren't far behind.

The story on defense tells us a different but no less interesting story. As bad as our perception might be of the Packers' 2011 defense, it did not rank last in any of the four categories compared to the past four Super Bowl teams. We could view the Packers' defense through the same prism as the offense: A few more third-down stops and a few more opponents limited to field goals in the red zone would put the Packers in the wheelhouse of defenses that advanced to the Super Bowl.


2011 Packers Versus Previous Super Bowl Teams: Defense

Team.............3rd down pct.  Red Zone TD pct.  Red Zone TD  Goal-to-Go TD pct.
2011 Packers.........42.6.............53.4.............31.............76.5
2011 Giants..........38.5.............54.1.............33.............75
2011 Patriots........43.1.............55.7.............34.............61.5
2010 Packers.........36.2.............45.2.............14.............61.1
2010 Steelers........33.5.............37.5.............15.............50
2009 Saints..........38.3.............39.3.............22.............60
2009 Colts...........45...............49...............25.............54.5
2008 Steelers........31.7.............33.3.............14.............55
2008 Cardinals.......44.7.............62.5.............35.............78.6

Source: ESPN Stats & Information

Why did the Packers pick these particular statistical categories? One theory: In a passing league, defenses are going to give up yards. But they can limit point totals by executing on a handful of key plays that largely fall into one of these categories.

I realize this is all inside football bordering on minutiae, but it addresses an important big-picture question: How do you improve from a run nearly unprecedented in NFL history? The Packers don't necessarily have the answers, but they're looking for them. It doesn’t matter how slowly you go, so long as you do not stop.

ESPN.com wrote:

Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (4h) : 49ers might be down their QB, DL, TE and LT?
packerfanoutwest (18h) : Jaire Alexander says he has a torn PCL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked
Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.
packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?
beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Backup QB helped with three wins. Special Teams contributed to three wins.
bboystyle (18-Nov) : Lions played outside thats why. They scored 16 and 17 in the only 2 outside games this year
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : The rest of the NFL is catching up to Packers ... kicking is an issue throughout league
packerfanoutwest (18-Nov) : Packers DL Kenny Clark: We knew 'we were going to block' Bears' game-winning field goal attempt
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Lions seem to be throttling everyone, but only (only) got 24 lol maybe the rain is why
Zero2Cool (18-Nov) : Packers vs Lions game doesn't seem so bad.
beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."
Mucky Tundra (17-Nov) : my worst case scenario: Bears fix their oline and get a coach like Johnson from the Lions and his scheme
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Bears get OL fixed amd we might have a problem
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : Pretty sure they already have scouting reports on guys who aren't even starting for their college team. The future is now for me.
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : I tend to let Gute and Co. Worry about the future.
beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them
beast (17-Nov) : That's great news and Packers need to keep upgrading their OL, DL and DBs this off-season, so missing one guy doesn't kill them
buckeyepackfan (17-Nov) : Jaire and Evans Williams are both ACTIVE! Good news.
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : The badgers really need to change the whole offensive scheme. No draws no screens plus the quarterback is marginal
Cheesey (17-Nov) : If the Badgers had a decent QB, they would have won. The guy can't hit a wide open receiver
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : chop block
Martha Careful (17-Nov) : there was a very questionable job Block call that upon viewing replay was very borderline
beast (17-Nov) : How so? (I didn't watch)
Zero2Cool (17-Nov) : Badgers got hosed vs Oregon
packerfanoutwest (16-Nov) : damn,he hasn't played since week 2
Mucky Tundra (15-Nov) : poor guy can't catch a break
wpr (15-Nov) : wow. That three different things for the kid.
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