macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
12 years ago
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/45722/how-the-packers-hope-to-improve 

Interesting article in the ESPN blog looking at stats from the last four SB teams. Couple of things leapt out at me:

Our 2011 D gave up more than 2x the number of TDs in the Red Zone than 2010, and the % of G2G TDs increased from 61 to 76%

Our 2011 D's numbers would have been good numbers for the 2011 Giants offense--Giants Offense had lower numbers for everything except RZ TDs, where they beat out our D by 1 (32 to 31).

While it will be challenging to duplicate last year's statistics, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have their sights set on improving in several key areas.
If you're not moving forward, you're going backward. I've never understood that aphorism. What about the times when you're so far ahead there seems nowhere to go? What if you're at 99.99999999? Are you going backward if you don't get to 100?

That's why I like the Confucian version of this thought. It doesn’t matter how slowly you go, so long as you do not stop. (Yes, I'm going deeeep here on a Tuesday afternoon.)

That, I think, is an appropriate way to look at the delicate but important balance the Green Bay Packers sought this summer after a 13-month run that included a Super Bowl championship and victories in 22 of 24 games. One of those losses was a playoff defeat to the New York Giants, the eventual Super Bowl XLVI champions. How do you encourage improvement and progress while still recognizing the reality of a precedent-setting run -- at least on offense?

I asked Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers that question during a training camp interview last month. Rodgers had already suggested the Packers would be a better team in 2012, even if it wasn't reflected in their record. (It's difficult, of course, to get to 16 victories when you're already at 15.) Rodgers noted the Packers' efforts to increase their energy level, but he also noted that coaches threw down an early-camp gauntlet of statistics to demonstrate the Packers' room for growth.

According to Rodgers, players have seen where the 2011 team ranked both offensively and defensively against the past four Super Bowl champions in a number of subtle but important categories. As best as I could tell, they include: •Third-down percentage
•Red zone touchdown percentage
•Red zone touchdowns
•Goal-to-go touchdown percentage

I haven't seen the charts that Rodgers referred to, but I've tried to re-create them the best I could in this post. Many thanks to Matt Willis of ESPN Stats & Information for the research and to blog editor Dan Jung, who formatted the charts as you see them. I have a number of thoughts, as I'm sure you will as well. But generally speaking, you can see there has been at least one team that exceeded or nearly matched the Packers' 2011 offensive production in each category. Meanwhile, the charts provide a more nuanced analysis of where the Packers fell short defensively last season than simply the passing yards they allowed.


2011 Packers Versus Previous Super Bowl Teams: Offense
 
Team...........3rd down pct.  Red Zone TD pct.  Red Zone TD   Goal-to-Go TD pct.
2011 Packers.......48.4.............63.6.............42.............80
2011 Giants........37.4.............55.2.............32.............71.9
2011 Patriots......45.9.............63...............46.............75.6
2010 Packers.......41.5.............58.2.............32.............73.5
2010 Steelers......43.1.............46.2.............24.............68
2009 Saints........44.7.............56.3.............40.............66.7
2009 Colts.........49.2.............62.3.............33.............79.3
2008 Steelers......41.3.............55.1.............27.............58.6
2008 Cardinals.....42.1.............58.5.............38.............66.7

Source: ESPN Stats & Information

"They've had a lot of times on their hands," Rodgers said, laughing. "If you just look at the stats by themselves, there is room for improvement … and they're challenging us to get maybe one more third down [conversion] per game to get us to this level, or one more conversion on the season in goal-to-go to get us to that ranking. If you look at it as a whole, it's going to be tough to put up the kind of numbers we did last year. But if you look at it like this, we can definitely improve."

For the most part, I think the message from Packers coaches strikes an appropriate balance between reality and progress. As proficient as the Packers were on offense last season, it's interesting to note that the 2009 Indianapolis Colts did a slightly better job of converting third downs. The 2011 New England Patriots scored more touchdowns in the red zone, and as crazy as the Packers' 80 percent conversation rate was when they were in goal-to-go situations, those 2009 Colts weren't far behind.

The story on defense tells us a different but no less interesting story. As bad as our perception might be of the Packers' 2011 defense, it did not rank last in any of the four categories compared to the past four Super Bowl teams. We could view the Packers' defense through the same prism as the offense: A few more third-down stops and a few more opponents limited to field goals in the red zone would put the Packers in the wheelhouse of defenses that advanced to the Super Bowl.


2011 Packers Versus Previous Super Bowl Teams: Defense

Team.............3rd down pct.  Red Zone TD pct.  Red Zone TD  Goal-to-Go TD pct.
2011 Packers.........42.6.............53.4.............31.............76.5
2011 Giants..........38.5.............54.1.............33.............75
2011 Patriots........43.1.............55.7.............34.............61.5
2010 Packers.........36.2.............45.2.............14.............61.1
2010 Steelers........33.5.............37.5.............15.............50
2009 Saints..........38.3.............39.3.............22.............60
2009 Colts...........45...............49...............25.............54.5
2008 Steelers........31.7.............33.3.............14.............55
2008 Cardinals.......44.7.............62.5.............35.............78.6

Source: ESPN Stats & Information

Why did the Packers pick these particular statistical categories? One theory: In a passing league, defenses are going to give up yards. But they can limit point totals by executing on a handful of key plays that largely fall into one of these categories.

I realize this is all inside football bordering on minutiae, but it addresses an important big-picture question: How do you improve from a run nearly unprecedented in NFL history? The Packers don't necessarily have the answers, but they're looking for them. It doesn’t matter how slowly you go, so long as you do not stop.

ESPN.com wrote:

Fan Shout
Martha Careful (3h) : 1 round 7 min, with one extra minute if there is a trade. 2nd round 4 minutes, 3rd -3, 2 thereafter IMO
Martha Careful (3h) : Agree
dfosterf (4h) : Great idea imo
dfosterf (4h) : 1st round to 7 minutes with one extension
dfosterf (4h) : NFL comissioner wants to shorten the 2st
Mucky Tundra (8h) : @jalenreagors They’re discussing if Sheduer can go back to college on NFL Network LMFAOOOOO
beast (10h) : Great point Martha
beast (10h) : Buddy Ryan used to say if a candy bar goes missing, there are two to blame, Rex and Rob 🤪 jk 😁
Martha Careful (13h) : Bum Phillips used to say there are two ways to get better. Get better players or get players to play better. We have a new DL coach
Zero2Cool (13h) : Yes. Look at the losses last year. They can win.
beast (13h) : Can Packers win with their current DL?
bboystyle (15h) : waiting for a pass rusher.
dfosterf (17h) : 5 minutes between picks in the 3rd
dfosterf (17h) : 3rd. Hate this phone
dfosterf (17h) : 4rd
dfosterf (17h) : 5 minutes in the 4
dfosterf (17h) : 7 minutes between picks in the 2nd round
Martha Careful (17h) : Sorry to bitch, but the headline writers in that section absolutely mislead, or don't know how to read. It is maddening
Martha Careful (18h) : No thanks. Not a dependable guy to be in the right place and run the right route. Dumb as a box of rocks.
Zero2Cool (18h) : Losing 2nd round pick for a one year rental, not ideal. Especially a headcase.
TheKanataThrilla (19h) : Pickens for Jaire may be interesting. Definitely not sure we want Pickens long term.
dfosterf (19h) : No.Absolutely not
Zero2Cool (19h) : NO NO NO NO NO NO!!1 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
dhazer (19h) : scenario: Our main prospects are off the board when our pick comes around, do we just throw a 2nd round pick at Pittsburgh for Pickens
TheKanataThrilla (19h) : Hopefully she had some comfort that her son will be live his dream when she passed away. Sad news.
Mucky Tundra (20h) : Damn that sucks
Zero2Cool (21h) : News about Derrick Harmon mom, saddening.
Zero2Cool (22h) : Mark Murphy: "I predict we will trade up once and down twice."
beast (23h) : Rip the Packers and getting the fans yelling and booing him
beast (23h) : Super competitive Bears fan and WWE "superstar" wrestler, Seth Rollins is supposed to announce a Bears pick and absolutely rip Packers
packerfanoutwest (25-Apr) : Golden
beast (25-Apr) : I want DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : And I can't be looking at my phone
Mucky Tundra (25-Apr) : Hey I'm at work lol
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : btw, new site chat won't delete auto like
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : because everyone left like wimps
TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : I am wondering if there is some type of autoclear when there isn't activity after a certain amount of time.
Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : What happened in the chat? Me and Zero posted a few things earlier and they're all gone
dfosterf (24-Apr) : 10-15 min bs plus flyover
dfosterf (24-Apr) : Yes
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : 7pm is when this kicks off????
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : I told him. IT'S VONTE MACK , no matter what!
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : He asked me who I thought The Browns were taking.
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : 2. Would of had to wear Browns gear all week. NOPE I'll watch from my living room.
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : He wanted to know if I would go. 2 things, would have had to fly from Detroit to Green Bay. Nope
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : All expense paid trip to the draft. He will be in the Browns section. I told him to say hi to J-10VE for me 😃😃i
buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : For a call from my nephew, he won an sllexp
TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : Hope to see everyone in the Chat tonight!!! Go Pack Go!!!
TheKanataThrilla (24-Apr) : Jeanty would be a great pick-up for the Bears. I see Warren mocked to them as well who I think would be a great selection.
Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : GameDay Chat is open. Posting bits an tids in there.
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