Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago
I had a hypothesis and I wanted to check and see if the numbers actually supported it or not. So I did some interesting data gathering over the weekend.

It appears that in the 1st through the 3rd quarters last year, the Packers League worst D gave up an average of roughly 3 net points and 65 passing yards per quarter. Now the passing yards were not that great, but not worst in the league. However only giving up roughly 3 net points a quarter was phenomenal.

Now this is taking out the points that our O gave up through turnovers that created points for the opposing D. It also credited them for the 5 TDs they scored directly. It doesn't compensate for the turnovers that were converted into field goals. Or the number would be even lower.

I also looked at the passing yards and points given up in the 4th quarter. I did include opponents passing yards that were gained in the 3rd quarter in which the drive ended in the 4th quarter. Where the points or stops were credited to.

I also looked at what was our greatest lead in the 4th quarter in each game. I averaged them out to be an 18 point lead,

I then looked at what the D gave up in the 4th quarter. I noticed that the average passing yards shot up to about 110 yards and over 8 net points given up.

The main conclusion I had was.

Since almost half the points and over a third of all yards given up by the passing D were in the 4th with that 18 points lead, they were not really failures of anything but the opponents being dangerous enough to really want to stop.

If we had not been playing from a 18 point lead that was in part built by the D, they probably would have played all those 4th quarters a lot more like the first 3.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
nerdmann
12 years ago
That's a great analysis, however it doesn't mean that our D can't improve. I've been watching games from last year again, and DAMN! LOL. They can stuff the run ALOT better. Blount embarrassed us in the Bucs game. They can also get to the QB much better too.

That said I think the reason we lost in the playoffs was just overconfidence. Or to be more specific, they guys just didn't show up to play, for whatever reason. It was more a mental issue than a roster issue.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago

That's a great analysis, however it doesn't mean that our D can't improve. I've been watching games from last year again, and DAMN! LOL. They can stuff the run ALOT better. Blount embarrassed us in the Bucs game. They can also get to the QB much better too.

That said I think the reason we lost in the playoffs was just overconfidence. Or to be more specific, they guys just didn't show up to play, for whatever reason. It was more a mental issue than a roster issue.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



We can improve everywhere. The team can't rest on anything. ST, Rushing, Rushing D, and even Passing.

The passing game can improve, which is scary. If they dropped just an average number of passes, Rodgers would have set an all time record for completions % and his passer rating would have gone up. 3 of his 6 picks were from dropped passes and one was a TD. He could easily had a passer rating up in the 130s if the WRs helped him out a little.

If you are not getting better, you are getting worse.

I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
zombieslayer
12 years ago

We can improve everywhere. The team can't rest on anything. ST, Rushing, Rushing D, and even Passing.

The passing game can improve, which is scary. If they dropped just an average number of passes, Rodgers would have set an all time record for completions % and his passer rating would have gone up. 3 of his 6 picks were from dropped passes and one was a TD. He could easily had a passer rating up in the 130s if the WRs helped him out a little.

If you are not getting better, you are getting worse.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



True.

That said, ideally, you want to improve your biggest weakness. Our biggest weakness is being 27th in sacks. I'd like to be in the top 5 ideally. That would cover up a lot of our other weaknesses, including getting our D off the field.
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wpr
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  • Preferred Member
12 years ago

That's a great analysis, however it doesn't mean that our D can't improve. I've been watching games from last year again, and DAMN! LOL. They can stuff the run ALOT better. Blount embarrassed us in the Bucs game. They can also get to the QB much better too.

That said I think the reason we lost in the playoffs was just overconfidence. Or to be more specific, they guys just didn't show up to play, for whatever reason. It was more a mental issue than a roster issue.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



I think part of the issue for them being flat was the death of Michael Philbin. He was just a few years younger than a majority of the players. With Phil out of the loop practice that week was different. I doubt anyone would say so but it had to have an effect on the players.
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Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago
I think a lot of our problems can be attributed to not playing an aggressive, down hill, rally to the ball style of D. We were playing contained soft, keep the ball in front of you and live to make another play. In which we will be facing the QB and taking the ball away as much as possible. They were running away from the play a lot.

When they are not gang tackling or pressing the line of scrimmage, there are a lot more 1 on 1 tackling opportunities. If the ball carrier only has one guy on him at a time, it is easier to shed the tackle.

I can't really say that the D was a problem and not just a softer scheme. And I can't even say it was a mistake. 15-1 and only trailing in the 4th quarter in one game.

The D held the Chiefs to 17 points. That should be good enough for an average team to win.

The playoff game was just all around bad and you can't even say the D was all that bad. Without the easy scores set up by turnovers and a pure luck hail mary where they had 2 guys in position.

Yes, they should improve. Just like every one else on the team. But I think it is a mistake to single out the passing D as letting the team down.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Zero2Cool
12 years ago
2011 the Packers averaged 35 points a game. Thirty. Five. That's more than a touchdown per quarter. Seriously think about that. That's frickin incredible. I remember recently thinking if the Packers and put up a 30 spot, they can't possibly lose. And last season they AVERAGED 35 per game! It was even higher for their home average. Incredible.

You'll give up quite a few yards when teams are abusing the rules (within the rules) that aide offensive passing. And that's why I say ... RUSH THE PASSER! Find a way to hit the QB. A pressure is almost as good as a sack. If you constantly in that QB's face, he'll remember that next drop back. "they coming? toss it quick!!"
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play2win
12 years ago
Good points, and great info Dexter_Sinister.

I'm all for pass rush. Bettering that will go a long way to curing our ills. We simply didn't have it last season. Giants did, and they rolled to another SB win. Their pieces all came together for the playoff run, like ours did in '10. Hopefully we can get ourselves back into the top 5 in sacks this season.

Our scoring D was really quite good as DS mentioned, for most of our games. Sitting back and absorbing on D was to our detriment at the end of games. I would imagine, should the additions pan out, and our pass rush, and our tackling improve significantly, we'll see some unheard of scoring by Green Bay. Our O should be getting far more opportunities with a more stout D closing down drives and handing possession back to Rodgers & Co.
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