Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago
I had a hypothesis and I wanted to check and see if the numbers actually supported it or not. So I did some interesting data gathering over the weekend.

It appears that in the 1st through the 3rd quarters last year, the Packers League worst D gave up an average of roughly 3 net points and 65 passing yards per quarter. Now the passing yards were not that great, but not worst in the league. However only giving up roughly 3 net points a quarter was phenomenal.

Now this is taking out the points that our O gave up through turnovers that created points for the opposing D. It also credited them for the 5 TDs they scored directly. It doesn't compensate for the turnovers that were converted into field goals. Or the number would be even lower.

I also looked at the passing yards and points given up in the 4th quarter. I did include opponents passing yards that were gained in the 3rd quarter in which the drive ended in the 4th quarter. Where the points or stops were credited to.

I also looked at what was our greatest lead in the 4th quarter in each game. I averaged them out to be an 18 point lead,

I then looked at what the D gave up in the 4th quarter. I noticed that the average passing yards shot up to about 110 yards and over 8 net points given up.

The main conclusion I had was.

Since almost half the points and over a third of all yards given up by the passing D were in the 4th with that 18 points lead, they were not really failures of anything but the opponents being dangerous enough to really want to stop.

If we had not been playing from a 18 point lead that was in part built by the D, they probably would have played all those 4th quarters a lot more like the first 3.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
nerdmann
12 years ago
That's a great analysis, however it doesn't mean that our D can't improve. I've been watching games from last year again, and DAMN! LOL. They can stuff the run ALOT better. Blount embarrassed us in the Bucs game. They can also get to the QB much better too.

That said I think the reason we lost in the playoffs was just overconfidence. Or to be more specific, they guys just didn't show up to play, for whatever reason. It was more a mental issue than a roster issue.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago

That's a great analysis, however it doesn't mean that our D can't improve. I've been watching games from last year again, and DAMN! LOL. They can stuff the run ALOT better. Blount embarrassed us in the Bucs game. They can also get to the QB much better too.

That said I think the reason we lost in the playoffs was just overconfidence. Or to be more specific, they guys just didn't show up to play, for whatever reason. It was more a mental issue than a roster issue.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



We can improve everywhere. The team can't rest on anything. ST, Rushing, Rushing D, and even Passing.

The passing game can improve, which is scary. If they dropped just an average number of passes, Rodgers would have set an all time record for completions % and his passer rating would have gone up. 3 of his 6 picks were from dropped passes and one was a TD. He could easily had a passer rating up in the 130s if the WRs helped him out a little.

If you are not getting better, you are getting worse.

I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
zombieslayer
12 years ago

We can improve everywhere. The team can't rest on anything. ST, Rushing, Rushing D, and even Passing.

The passing game can improve, which is scary. If they dropped just an average number of passes, Rodgers would have set an all time record for completions % and his passer rating would have gone up. 3 of his 6 picks were from dropped passes and one was a TD. He could easily had a passer rating up in the 130s if the WRs helped him out a little.

If you are not getting better, you are getting worse.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



True.

That said, ideally, you want to improve your biggest weakness. Our biggest weakness is being 27th in sacks. I'd like to be in the top 5 ideally. That would cover up a lot of our other weaknesses, including getting our D off the field.
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wpr
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12 years ago

That's a great analysis, however it doesn't mean that our D can't improve. I've been watching games from last year again, and DAMN! LOL. They can stuff the run ALOT better. Blount embarrassed us in the Bucs game. They can also get to the QB much better too.

That said I think the reason we lost in the playoffs was just overconfidence. Or to be more specific, they guys just didn't show up to play, for whatever reason. It was more a mental issue than a roster issue.

Originally Posted by: nerdmann 



I think part of the issue for them being flat was the death of Michael Philbin. He was just a few years younger than a majority of the players. With Phil out of the loop practice that week was different. I doubt anyone would say so but it had to have an effect on the players.
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Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago
I think a lot of our problems can be attributed to not playing an aggressive, down hill, rally to the ball style of D. We were playing contained soft, keep the ball in front of you and live to make another play. In which we will be facing the QB and taking the ball away as much as possible. They were running away from the play a lot.

When they are not gang tackling or pressing the line of scrimmage, there are a lot more 1 on 1 tackling opportunities. If the ball carrier only has one guy on him at a time, it is easier to shed the tackle.

I can't really say that the D was a problem and not just a softer scheme. And I can't even say it was a mistake. 15-1 and only trailing in the 4th quarter in one game.

The D held the Chiefs to 17 points. That should be good enough for an average team to win.

The playoff game was just all around bad and you can't even say the D was all that bad. Without the easy scores set up by turnovers and a pure luck hail mary where they had 2 guys in position.

Yes, they should improve. Just like every one else on the team. But I think it is a mistake to single out the passing D as letting the team down.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Zero2Cool
12 years ago
2011 the Packers averaged 35 points a game. Thirty. Five. That's more than a touchdown per quarter. Seriously think about that. That's frickin incredible. I remember recently thinking if the Packers and put up a 30 spot, they can't possibly lose. And last season they AVERAGED 35 per game! It was even higher for their home average. Incredible.

You'll give up quite a few yards when teams are abusing the rules (within the rules) that aide offensive passing. And that's why I say ... RUSH THE PASSER! Find a way to hit the QB. A pressure is almost as good as a sack. If you constantly in that QB's face, he'll remember that next drop back. "they coming? toss it quick!!"
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play2win
12 years ago
Good points, and great info Dexter_Sinister.

I'm all for pass rush. Bettering that will go a long way to curing our ills. We simply didn't have it last season. Giants did, and they rolled to another SB win. Their pieces all came together for the playoff run, like ours did in '10. Hopefully we can get ourselves back into the top 5 in sacks this season.

Our scoring D was really quite good as DS mentioned, for most of our games. Sitting back and absorbing on D was to our detriment at the end of games. I would imagine, should the additions pan out, and our pass rush, and our tackling improve significantly, we'll see some unheard of scoring by Green Bay. Our O should be getting far more opportunities with a more stout D closing down drives and handing possession back to Rodgers & Co.
Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (2h) : sounds like Packers don't get good compensation, Jaire staying
dfosterf (5h) : Nobody coming up with a keep, but at x amount
dfosterf (5h) : Trade, cut or keep
dfosterf (6h) : that from Jaire
dfosterf (6h) : My guess is the Packers floated the concept of a reworked contract via his agent and agent got a f'
Zero2Cool (6h) : Yes, and that is why I think Rob worded it how he did. Rather than say "agent"
dfosterf (7h) : Same laws apply. Agent must present such an offer to Jaire. Cannot accept or reject without presenting it
Zero2Cool (7h) : I'm thinking that is why Rob worded it how he did.
dfosterf (7h) : The Packers can certainly still make the offer to the agent
dfosterf (7h) : Laws of agency and definition of fiduciary responsibility
dfosterf (7h) : Jaire is open to a reduced contract without Jaire's permission
dfosterf (7h) : The agent would arguably violate the law if he were to tell the Packers
Zero2Cool (7h) : That someone ... likely the agent.
Zero2Cool (7h) : So, Jaire has not been offered nor rejected a pay reduction, but someone says he'd decline.
Zero2Cool (7h) : Demovksy says t was direct communication with someone familiar with Jaire’s line of thinking at that moment.
Zero2Cool (7h) : Demovsky just replied to me a bit ago. Jaire hasn't said it.
dfosterf (9h) : Of course, that depends on the definition of "we"
dfosterf (9h) : We have been told that they haven't because he wouldn't accept it. I submit we don't know that
dfosterf (9h) : What is the downside in making a calculated reduced offer to Jaire?
Zero2Cool (15-Apr) : Packers are receiving interest in Jaire Alexander but a trade is not imminent
Zero2Cool (15-Apr) : Jalen Ramsey wants to be traded. He's never happy is he?
Zero2Cool (15-Apr) : two 1sts in 2022 and two 2nd's in 2023 and 2024
Zero2Cool (15-Apr) : Packers had fortunate last three drafts.
dfosterf (15-Apr) : I may have to move
dfosterf (15-Apr) : My wife just told the ancient Japanese sushi dude not enough rice under his fish
Zero2Cool (14-Apr) : I think a dozen is what I need
dfosterf (14-Apr) : Go fund me for this purpose just might work. A dozen nurses show up at 1265 to provide mental health assistance.
dfosterf (14-Apr) : Maybe send a crew of Angels to the Packers draft room on draft day.
Zero2Cool (14-Apr) : I am the Angel that gets visited.
dfosterf (14-Apr) : Visiting Angels has a pretty good reputation
Zero2Cool (14-Apr) : what
Martha Careful (14-Apr) : WINNING IT, not someone else losing it. The best victory though was re-uniting with his wife
Martha Careful (14-Apr) : The manner in which he won it was just amazing and wonderful. First blowing the lead then getting back, then blowing it. But ultimately
Zero2Cool (12-Apr) : I'm guessing since the thumb was broken, he wasn't feeling it.
dfosterf (10-Apr) : Looking for guidance. Not feeling the thumb.
Mucky Tundra (10-Apr) : If they knew about it or not
Mucky Tundra (10-Apr) : I don't recall that he did which is why I asked.
Zero2Cool (10-Apr) : Guessing they probably knew. Did he have cast or something on?
Mucky Tundra (10-Apr) : Did they know that at the time or was that something the realized afterwards?
Zero2Cool (9-Apr) : Van Ness played most of season with broken thumb
wpr (9-Apr) : yay
Zero2Cool (9-Apr) : Mark Murphy says Steelers likely to protect Packers game. Meaning, no Ireland
Zero2Cool (8-Apr) : Struggling to figure out what text editor options are needed and which are 'nice to have'
Mucky Tundra (8-Apr) : *CHOMP CHOMP CHOMP*
Zero2Cool (2-Apr) : WR who said he'd break Xavier Worthy 40 time...and ran slower than you
Mucky Tundra (2-Apr) : Who?
Zero2Cool (2-Apr) : Texas’ WR Isaiah Bond is scheduled to visit the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Falcons, Packers and Titans starting next week.
Zero2Cool (2-Apr) : Spotting ball isn't changing, only measuring distance is, Which wasn't the issue.
Zero2Cool (2-Apr) : The spotting of the ball IS the issue. Not the chain gang.
Mucky Tundra (2-Apr) : Will there be a tracker on the ball or something?
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