Since69
13 years ago
I don't have all the numbers handy, but I'd be willing to bet a good deal of money that the percentage of kick returns that end in touchdowns is higher than it's ever been before.

Thanks to the new kickoff rules, kicks are three or four times as likely to be touchbacks, but it seems to me that we've already had a season's worth of big returns.

By and large the lockout doesn't seem to have affected most areas of the game, but special teams coverage units have sucked across the board.
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Greg C.
13 years ago
At least this week they did. My guess is that it was just a glitch, because there's no reason for the coverage units to be any worse. The only thing I can think of is that the kickoff coverage units got a bit complacent because of all the touchbacks, but they won't be complacent anymore, and of course there have been no rules changes with the punting game.
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olds70supreme
13 years ago
I noticed that there seemed to be a lot of big runbacks as well, so I assumed that maybe the coverage team was getting further downfield and had a tendency to get outside of their lane assignments out of habit. Then I found out that in addition to moving the kickoff up 5 yards, the rules also state that the coverage team can only get a 5 yard running head start on kickoffs. Before they would run from ~10 yards back, timing their run to be at the ball when the kicker kicked it. Now they only have 5 yards to gain speed. I'm sure that this is factoring in. My feeling is that for the first half of the season we will continue to see lots of touchbacks and big returns, after which teams will adapt to the new rules and limit the big returns to a number that is similar to previous years.

One thing that bugs me is that with Crosby's leg I would have him kick it out of the endzone every time it was possible. I would prefer to make a team go 80 yards to score a TD rather than give them a chance against our coverage units. This would eliminate a lot of big plays, which I think is one of the only threats to this team.
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Packers_Finland
13 years ago
It's official. Most kickoff or punt return TDs ever in one week, 8 in total.
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Pack93z
13 years ago

At least this week they did. My guess is that it was just a glitch, because there's no reason for the coverage units to be any worse. The only thing I can think of is that the kickoff coverage units got a bit complacent because of all the touchbacks, but they won't be complacent anymore, and of course there have been no rules changes with the punting game.

Originally Posted by: Greg C. 



Actually I think there might be a slight impact due to a lag in adjustment to the rule change..

By condensing the field by 5 yards.. it has condensed the area of field coverage the the return unit has to account for in setting up the lanes and accounting for the reduced change in pursuit movement of the kicking team.. and I agree that the kicking team might be a tad more complacent in seeing the ball consistently being placed in the endzone.

But I will buy into it being more of a product of coincidence than a direct impact.. although it could play a part in it.

In a game of inches at times.. I think there has to be some effect for giving up 5 yards.

But as you noted.. that doesn't effect the 5 punts returned...

That said.. it begs the question what is an average week for punt and kickoff returns independently.. was it the KO returns that were up or the punt returns or both.
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Greg C.
13 years ago

One thing that bugs me is that with Crosby's leg I would have him kick it out of the endzone every time it was possible. I would prefer to make a team go 80 yards to score a TD rather than give them a chance against our coverage units. This would eliminate a lot of big plays, which I think is one of the only threats to this team.

Originally Posted by: olds70supreme 



I'm sure they would have Crosby kick it out of the end zone every time if he could actually do that. But he can't. No kicker can kick the ball out of the end zone every single time. That's a 75 yard kick, and the kicker isn't always going to strike the ball perfectly. So there may be some times where they kick it short to avoid putting the ball in the hands of a good return man. Crosby did that on the last kickoff. He kicked it to one of the up backs around the 20 yard line, and there was very little return yardage.
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Greg C.
13 years ago

But as you noted.. that doesn't effect the 5 punts returned...

That said.. it begs the question what is an average week for punt and kickoff returns independently.. was it the KO returns that were up or the punt returns or both.

Originally Posted by: Pack93z 



So before we waste our time analyzing these rule changes (wait a minute--we already have!) let's throw out the five punt returns and consider whether three kickoff returns in one week is an exceptionally high number. I would expect that the average per week is something like one, but three (or more) have most likely been returned for TDs a bunch of times before. We'll see in the coming weeks whether or not this is a real trend.
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Since69
13 years ago

So before we waste our time analyzing these rule changes (wait a minute--we already have!) let's throw out the five punt returns and consider whether three kickoff returns in one week is an exceptionally high number. I would expect that the average per week is something like one, but three (or more) have most likely been returned for TDs a bunch of times before. We'll see in the coming weeks whether or not this is a real trend.

Originally Posted by: Greg C. 



You also have to take into account the percentage of kicks that aren't returned - the vast majority of kicks are touchbacks since the rule change.

3 TDs out of 150 returns isn't that many, but 3 out of 30 is...
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Greg C.
13 years ago

You also have to take into account the percentage of kicks that aren't returned - the vast majority of kicks are touchbacks since the rule change.

3 TDs out of 150 returns isn't that many, but 3 out of 30 is...

Originally Posted by: Since69 



Ah yes, that's a very good point!
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