nerdmann
13 years ago
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/26903/packers-the-reed-elmore-debate 

In the weeks and days leading to the NFL draft, public discussion centered the Green Bay Packers' interest in an Arizona defensive end who projected as an outside linebacker in their 3-4 scheme. Brooks Reed was a 263-pound pass-rusher who displayed superior speed and initial acceleration at the scouting combine.

As it turns out, the Packers drafted an Arizona defensive end who projects as an outside linebacker. But it wasn't Reed, who went to the Houston Texans with the No. 42 overall pick. Instead, it was a player who more than doubled Reed's sack total for the Wildcats during the past two seasons. Ricky Elmore posted 21.5 sacks to Reed's 8.5 over that stretch, but Elmore was still available late in the sixth round (No. 197).

That production disparity jumped out right away to a number of you. Pat of St. Paul wanted to know: "How did Ricky Elmore get pushed to the sixth round with his fantastic production in college? Do you think this was a steal for the Packers?"

Andy of Anew Berlin, Wis., wrote: "I was wondering why everyone was so high on Reed and why have I never heard of Ricky Elmore until the Packers drafted him. I listen to a lot of sports talk radio and I haven't heard anyone bring up the comparison of Reed to Elmore and I am interested in what your opinion was for the vast differences in where they were drafted especially because of the numbers they put up at Arizona."

Actually, Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette broached the subject shortly after the draft. But I think the question brings a classic draft argument into specific relief: How should college production be weighed versus athleticism and potential? When should production matter and when shouldn't it?

First, let's review a series of test results that absolutely swayed NFL scouts and their respective general managers.

Reed ran the fourth-fastest time in the 40-yard dash (4.68 seconds) among defensive linemen at the February scouting combine. He covered the first 10 yards in 1.54 seconds, tops among defensive linemen and an important tool for scouts to evaluate initial burst from pass-rushers.

Although he weighed in at eight pounds less than Reed (255 pounds versus 263), Elmore tested substantially worse in speed drills. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.96 seconds and his 10-yard split was 1.70 seconds. Elmore subsequently improved those times during private workouts, but the die was cast: Elmore was slow for a projected 3-4 linebacker.

You might scoff at those numbers. It's true, the NFL is populated by hundreds of successful players once deemed too slow. It's also littered with the remains of those who are fast but can't play the game. But in the world of scouting, which includes equal parts evaluation and projection, speed is one of the most important attributes of a potential draft pick at most positions.

I reached out to Steve Muench of Scouts Inc., whose job is to mirror the work of NFL scouts, making his own evaluations while also trying to project what the league will think of prospects. Steve's evaluation will help you understand why Elmore was still on the board 155 spots after the Texans selected Reed:

"Elmore was the more productive player the past two years but production can be, and in this case is, misleading. Reed recorded the quickest 10-yard split out of all the defensive linemen at the combine last year. He is substantially faster than Elmore, and he is eight pounds heavier despite measuring two inches shorter. He also has longer arms and superior upper-body strength.

None of this would matter much if it didn't translate to the film. But Reed is quicker off the line and closes better than Elmore, who benefited from the attention that Reed drew from opposing teams. Reed is noticeably stouter against the run."


Elmore was one of the first to recognize how the NFL was viewing him, going to the very 2011 lengths of posting YouTube videos depicting him jumping out of a pool and later into a truck.

"I was just trying to show that I'm athletic and I'm explosive," Elmore told Wisconsin reporters. "... It's the difference between a sack and not getting a sack. If you can't be explosive off the line, an offensive tackle is going to beat you back and you're already one step behind. ... Being explosive is probably the No. 1 most important thing to being an outside linebacker."

PACKERS RUSH DEFENSE BY DIRECTION

The Packers allowed 3.7 yards per rush up the middle, 12th best in the league in 2010. However, when teams ran to the left or right, the Packers allowed 5.5 yards per rush, 29th in the league.
Middle Left/Right
Rushes 173 219
Yards/Rush 3.7 5.5
First Downs 27 55
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Elmore also spent five weeks working with the father of Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews to help make the transition to linebacker. It's been well-chronicled that the Packers don't have a starter locked in opposite Matthews, and as the chart shows, the Packers could stand to shore up their outside run defense in 2011.

But can Elmore be the answer? Did the Packers unearth a player who simply knows how to get to the quarterback and play the game? Or is Elmore too slow, and were his college production numbers too skewed to consider that outcome a realistic possibility?

From a scouts' perspective, Muench said that Elmore has the "size and toughness to be an effective run-stopper" but needs technique work. Ultimately, Muench concluded: "Elmore has enough quickness and the motor to develop into an effective role player in Green Bay's 3-4 scheme. However, I don't think he has enough speed or agility to develop into a difference-maker like Clay Matthews and he may not even develop into a quality starter."

That's a scout's take, and it clearly mirrors those in the league considering Elmore was still available late in the sixth round. Now you have a better idea of why Reed was more highly regarded. What we don't and can't know is this: Can the Packers develop Elmore into a player who could one day approach his college production? Coaching, heart and circumstances can't be judged before a draft. Check back in three years on that one.

"ESPN" wrote:


“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Zero2Cool
13 years ago
[youtube]eEqNJAwQolU[/youtube]
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
13 years ago
It's all about pad level. They didn't even mention it.
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nerdmann
13 years ago
Dude was slow in the 40, which means he shouldn't be on the punt coverage unit. His quickness and agility drills were in the top 2-3 iirc. They also said Dez Bishop was too slow.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Dexter_Sinister
13 years ago
If playing opposite Reed got Elmore 21.5 sack in two years, what will playing opposite Matthews do for him?

I watched the highlight films of Elmore and Reed. Not to compare them but to get a look at what the other guy was doing while the guy who's video it was was getting the highlight.

Elmore jumped out like a tasmanian devil. He was splitting double teams, stuffing the run, pursuing plays across the field from the opposite side and being the first one there. Against the run and the pass rush.

He may not be fast in shorts and a t-shirt, but he had great anticipation and explosion. He had non stop and violent energy. I am not surprised Thompson liked him over Reed.

The highlights also showed him dropping into coverage a few times.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Greg C.
13 years ago
Let's hope this is a case of scouts getting too caught up on the workout numbers. It does happen sometimes. But then there are guys like Abdul Hodge who were productive in college and not projected to be great in the pros, and the scouts turn out to be right.

Dexter makes a good point about Elmore playing opposite Matthews. If nothing else, Elmore has thrived on being the #2 pass rusher.
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warhawk
13 years ago
I think Reed is a much bigger risk when you consider his numbers didn't add up when you look at his size, strength, and speed. Something isn't right there. Especially when you consider the guy on the other side of him was no slouch.

To me a 40 time doesn't mean much when you consider at this position there will be body's between you and the QB and the question is how fast do you shed them and get to the guy throwing the ball.

I don't think the kid will start this year. I see the other guys getting a lot of PT last year improving in year two, or, hope to see that. So the coaches can work with Elmore and move him along over time. When you take a player high in the 2nd round there is more expected sooner and I really wonder if Reed will produce. It's certainly not just speed that makes CM3 special. It's that dip and other moves to get around those OT's fast that gets the numbers he puts up.
"The train is leaving the station."
Yerko
13 years ago
I agree with Dexter on watching his highlight films. Elmore splits a lot of double teams from a tight end/tackle block (something he would see at an OLB and the other thing that impressed me is he was always moving towards the ball. His numbers may have benefited from Reed, but not all credit should be given to that.
The other thing about Elmore that stands out is he is 6'5" 260 pounds...thats a big ass dude right there playing OLB.
DeMarcus Ware: 6'4" 262...just saying.
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