Breaking down the NFC Championship Game
Essentials
When the Packers have the ball
[img_r]http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/getty/gyi0062984975.vmedium.jpg[/img_r]A 28-14 halftime lead over Atlanta allowed Green Bay to reel off 31 divisional-round rushing attempts, but the Packers remain a pass-first team. Lethal since midseason, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has accounted for a 24:3 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his past nine games. He also had plenty of success throwing against Chicago during the regular season, completing 72.6 percent of his passes and averaging 7.47 yards per attempt in two games against the Bears. The Packers can't get too cute Sunday. They're at their most dangerous with Rodgers ripping it in four- and five-receiver sets, and when the run game is only used as a change of pace.
Packers rookie tailback James Starks has been a postseason media darling, but he's unlikely to be a successful source of big plays in the NFC Championship. Coming off a divisional-round game in which he averaged just 2.64 yards per carry against Atlanta's No. 10 rush defense, Starks faces a Bears team that ranks No. 2 in the league against the run and is serving up nearly a full yard less per rushing attempt than the Falcons. Despite a potentially snowy, chilly Soldier Field, the Packers' coaching staff must resist the temptation to employ a balanced offense against the Bears. Just as they did to the Seahawks, the Monsters of the Midway will shut down Green Bay's ground game.
When the Bears have the ball
These longtime NFC North rivals split the regular-season series, with quarterback Jay Cutler throwing two interceptions in the Bears' Week 17 loss compared to just one turnover as a team in Chicagos Week 3 victory over the Pack. As usually is the case, the key for the Bears will be Cutler's ability to avoid turnovers. He is far less effective and more error-prone when pressured, so his protection must have its best game of the season. The Packers led the NFC in regular-season sacks and have tacked on another 11 in the playoffs, the most of any team in January.
Running back Matt Forte continued his late-season tear in Chicagos divisional-round thumping of Seattle, tallying 80 yards rushing and 54 receiving. He has at least 98 total yards in four straight games, and seven of his past eight. The Packers failed to bottle up Forte in Week 17, as he averaged 6.1 yards on 15 carries and added a season-high eight receptions for 60 yards. Forte is the most versatile running back left in the playoffs. The Bears will be a safe bet to win if he gets the football 25-30 times Sunday.
Coaches
Last week's victory over the Falcons moved Packers coach Mike McCarthy's career playoff record to 3-2, and he has won back-to-back postseason road games. Particularly in light of Green Bay's 10-3 win over these same Bears in the regular-season finale, McCarthy's team should not be intimidated by playing at Chicago. The Packers have won four of their past six meetings with the Bears. One of the losses came by three points, and the other went to overtime.
Bears coach Lovie Smith is undefeated in three career playoff home games, winning them by a combined margin of 101-62. Smith's recent struggles against the Packers have to be on his mind, however, and are compounded by the fact that the Bears needlessly played their starters three weeks ago at Green Bay, and still lost. McCarthy has the coaching edge, head to head.
X-factors
Andrew Quarless
A fifth-round rookie from Penn State, the Packers' Quarless was forced into a bigger role than expected when starting tight end Jermichael Finley suffered a year-ending knee injury in Week 4. Although Quarless has been mostly quiet since, he has flashed athleticism in limited opportunities and could follow in the footsteps of James Starks and Jordy Nelson as the next "no-name" Packer with a big playoff game. In the regular season's final month and a half, the Bears gave up six catches per game and three touchdowns to tight ends. Chicago's Cover-2 zone can be vulnerable down the seam.
Johnny Knox
Knox had 96 yards in the Bears' Week 3 victory over the Packers, then went catchless in the Week 17 loss. It's no coincidence, as Knox is Chicago's lone deep threat. Green Bay probably will pay more attention to Greg Olsen and Kellen Davis after the tight ends' breakout game last week against Seattle, freeing up Knox for single coverage down the sideline. The Bears need a big play from their field stretcher to keep blitzing cornerback Charles Woodson from teeing off on Cutler.