Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago

Breaking down the NFC Championship Game
 

Essentials

When the Packers have the ball

[img_r]http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/getty/gyi0062984975.vmedium.jpg[/img_r]A 28-14 halftime lead over Atlanta allowed Green Bay to reel off 31 divisional-round rushing attempts, but the Packers remain a pass-first team. Lethal since midseason, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has accounted for a 24:3 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in his past nine games. He also had plenty of success throwing against Chicago during the regular season, completing 72.6 percent of his passes and averaging 7.47 yards per attempt in two games against the Bears. The Packers can't get too cute Sunday. They're at their most dangerous with Rodgers ripping it in four- and five-receiver sets, and when the run game is only used as a change of pace.

Packers rookie tailback James Starks has been a postseason media darling, but he's unlikely to be a successful source of big plays in the NFC Championship. Coming off a divisional-round game in which he averaged just 2.64 yards per carry against Atlanta's No. 10 rush defense, Starks faces a Bears team that ranks No. 2 in the league against the run and is serving up nearly a full yard less per rushing attempt than the Falcons. Despite a potentially snowy, chilly Soldier Field, the Packers' coaching staff must resist the temptation to employ a balanced offense against the Bears. Just as they did to the Seahawks, the Monsters of the Midway will shut down Green Bay's ground game.

When the Bears have the ball

These longtime NFC North rivals split the regular-season series, with quarterback Jay Cutler throwing two interceptions in the Bears' Week 17 loss compared to just one turnover as a team in Chicagos Week 3 victory over the Pack. As usually is the case, the key for the Bears will be Cutler's ability to avoid turnovers. He is far less effective and more error-prone when pressured, so his protection must have its best game of the season. The Packers led the NFC in regular-season sacks and have tacked on another 11 in the playoffs, the most of any team in January.

Running back Matt Forte continued his late-season tear in Chicagos divisional-round thumping of Seattle, tallying 80 yards rushing and 54 receiving. He has at least 98 total yards in four straight games, and seven of his past eight. The Packers failed to bottle up Forte in Week 17, as he averaged 6.1 yards on 15 carries and added a season-high eight receptions for 60 yards. Forte is the most versatile running back left in the playoffs. The Bears will be a safe bet to win if he gets the football 25-30 times Sunday.

Coaches

Last week's victory over the Falcons moved Packers coach Mike McCarthy's career playoff record to 3-2, and he has won back-to-back postseason road games. Particularly in light of Green Bay's 10-3 win over these same Bears in the regular-season finale, McCarthy's team should not be intimidated by playing at Chicago. The Packers have won four of their past six meetings with the Bears. One of the losses came by three points, and the other went to overtime.

Bears coach Lovie Smith is undefeated in three career playoff home games, winning them by a combined margin of 101-62. Smith's recent struggles against the Packers have to be on his mind, however, and are compounded by the fact that the Bears needlessly played their starters three weeks ago at Green Bay, and still lost. McCarthy has the coaching edge, head to head.

X-factors

Andrew Quarless

A fifth-round rookie from Penn State, the Packers' Quarless was forced into a bigger role than expected when starting tight end Jermichael Finley suffered a year-ending knee injury in Week 4. Although Quarless has been mostly quiet since, he has flashed athleticism in limited opportunities and could follow in the footsteps of James Starks and Jordy Nelson as the next "no-name" Packer with a big playoff game. In the regular season's final month and a half, the Bears gave up six catches per game and three touchdowns to tight ends. Chicago's Cover-2 zone can be vulnerable down the seam.

Johnny Knox

Knox had 96 yards in the Bears' Week 3 victory over the Packers, then went catchless in the Week 17 loss. It's no coincidence, as Knox is Chicago's lone deep threat. Green Bay probably will pay more attention to Greg Olsen and Kellen Davis after the tight ends' breakout game last week against Seattle, freeing up Knox for single coverage down the sideline. The Bears need a big play from their field stretcher to keep blitzing cornerback Charles Woodson from teeing off on Cutler.


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Mucky Tundra (9h) : All the stuff I'm reading from Lions fans are pointing at his toe; he more or less has permanent turf toe in one of his big toes
dfosterf (10h) : Kenny played through it, and a shame he gets little credit for that, imo
dfosterf (10h) : Big men. I hope it's not the undoing of Kenny Clark
dfosterf (10h) : Probably his toe. Pretty much a great center. Toe injuries are brutal to bigen
Mucky Tundra (16h) : Lions All-Pro C Frank Ragnow retires
wpr (30-May) : It's all good.
beast (30-May) : Yeah, and I enjoyed your comments and just attempted to add to it. Sorry if I did it incorrectly.
wpr (30-May) : Beast I never said Henderson was the salt of the earth. Nor even that he was correct. Just quoting the guy.
Zero2Cool (29-May) : What did you do??
Zero2Cool (29-May) : Whoa
beast (29-May) : OMG the website is now all white, even some white on white text
beast (29-May) : Henderson, who admits to taking cocaine during the Super Bowl against the Steelers, might dislike Bradshaw as he lost two Superbowls to him
wpr (28-May) : Hollywood Henderson said Bradshaw “is so dumb, he couldn't spell 'cat' if you spotted him the C and an A.”
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : Cooper stock=BUY BUY BUY
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : Also notes he’s playing with more confidence.
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : @AndyHermanNFL MLF says there was a time last year where Cooper was at 220 pounds. Now he’s at 240 and still flying around.
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : And don't even get me started on Frank Caliendos "impersonations"
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : I got tired of them being circle jerks with them overlaughing at each others jokes.
Zero2Cool (28-May) : It used to be must watch TV for me. now it's "meh" maybe to hear injury update
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : I haven't watched the pregame shows in years and I don't feel like I've missed a thing
Zero2Cool (28-May) : Love says knee affected him all season, groin injury didn't help matters.
Zero2Cool (28-May) : I used to enjoy him on FOX Pregame. Now it's like a frat party of former Patriots.
Zero2Cool (28-May) : LaFleur on Watson: “Christian is doing outstanding. I would say he’s ahead of schedule.”
Martha Careful (28-May) : Bradshaw is a dumb ass cracker. I am so tired of his "aw shucks" diatribe. He should shrivel up and go away.
buckeyepackfan (28-May) : He wad all butt hurt because Aaron duped the media saying he was immunized.
buckeyepackfan (28-May) : Bradshaw needs to retire. He's been ripping on Rodgers ever since the covid crap. He was all hury
Zero2Cool (28-May) : Terry Bradshaw doesn't want Rodgers in Pittsburgh lol wow
Zero2Cool (27-May) : one day contract, which he also feels is pointless, but if Packers came to him, he would
packerfanoutwest (27-May) : Aaron Rodgers talks possibility of retiring with Packers, just another rumor
dfosterf (27-May) : Go watch 2001
Zero2Cool (26-May) : 1984
dfosterf (26-May) : That movie sent a chill through many. 1968.
dfosterf (26-May) : "Open the pod bay doors, HAL"
buckeyepackfan (25-May) : Haven't we all seen thus movie? It doesn't end well!! Lol
Zero2Cool (25-May) : lol Anthropic’s new AI model turns to blackmail when engineers try to take it offline
dfosterf (25-May) : Claude Opus 4
dfosterf (25-May) : AI system resorts to blackmail when its developers threaten to take it offline
beast (22-May) : Colts Owner Jim Irsay has passed away
Zero2Cool (21-May) : Well, emailing should work now. After not working for almost a year. Oops.
Zero2Cool (21-May) : Brotherly Shove did not get enough votes.
Zero2Cool (20-May) : lol our email hasn't worked in months. 7 pages of unverified users
Zero2Cool (20-May) : MySpace Screaming Lord Byron ... Brett Favre.
Zero2Cool (19-May) : Packers have signed first-round pick Matthew Golden, leaving second-round tackle Anthony Belton as their only unsigned draft pick
beast (19-May) : Supposedly he has to take his image, and name off of it... but otherwise could keep selling wine if he wanted to.
Zero2Cool (19-May) : he giving up his win business?
beast (19-May) : Speaking of Woodson, sounds like he'll be a minority owner (0.1%) of the Browns
Mucky Tundra (15-May) : Zero, regarding Woodson, that'd why I find the timing with Williams peculiar
dfosterf (15-May) : Ryan Hall y'all does a great job of tracking thesr
Zero2Cool (15-May) : Fear not!! I planned to do 33mi bike ride tomorrow morning, so ... yeah
Zero2Cool (15-May) : We got some dark clouds and nasty winds right bout now.
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