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Finley88Beast
14 years ago
idk lol i think the packers are always on top!
A Quote from my brother Mike(Bears Fan)
"Fucking Greg Jennings"
After he makes a catch
CaliforniaCheez
14 years ago

I understand the concept of "strength of schedule" on an intuitive level, and i'm sure the formula is very simple (winning percentage of opponents, most likely), but may I ask where you found the actual definition of the term as enunciated by the NFL itself?

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Good question. The NFL does publish many of it's rules and definitions or at least they are not acessable to the public. For example, last offseason I tried to find rules on equipment to get the definitions of what is a legal facemask on a helmet and what is not. No where to be found.

Everytime the NFL uses Strength of Schedule in this context it is the average of winning % of the a team's opponents played.
It is not published but the math always works out to that definition. Sometimes in an NFL article it will reference the formula.

If you have gone to this link  you know the NFL assumes it is understood just like winning percentage and net points.


For example the Packers played the Eagles a .500 team and they played the Bills, a .000 team. Their strength of schedule is .250 the average of their 2 opponents.

The Bears beat the Lions a .000 team and the Cowboys a .000 team. Their Strength of Schedule is .000.

The Cowboys were beaten by a .500 team the Eagles and 1.000 team the Bears. Their Strength of Schedule is .750.

It is a number that changes from week to week. By the time week 12 rolls around it would take hours without a spreadsheet.

ONLY USE GAMES PLAYED TO CALCULATE IT.

Now change the context. Don't let me confuse you. If somone is discussing say the strength of the Packers upcoming schedule.
(Bears 1.000, Lions .000, Redskins .500, Dolphins 1.000) it is only good for that moment of time and would be the average of the winning percentages, .625. Yet it will change after each week so that context is short lived.

When used as a tiebreaker for the draft they use the average winning percentage of opponents played the previous season.
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mi_keys
14 years ago

ONLY USE GAMES PLAYED TO CALCULATE IT.

"CaliforniaCheez" wrote:



For current standings I'm sure that's what they officially use but for the sake of projecting playoff positions I would look at the full 16 game strength of schedule. Right now that doesn't matter much but when you're talking around week 12 that could give you some better insight on who might have the actual tiebreaker should it come to that.
Born and bred a cheesehead
CaliforniaCheez
14 years ago
At week 12 3/4 of the games are played games.
You can only go with played games and actual performance.
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mi_keys
14 years ago

At week 12 3/4 of the games are played games.
You can only go with played games and actual performance.

"CaliforniaCheez" wrote:



I don't know if you got the point I was trying to get at. Even at that point in the season the last four games could significantly change your strength of schedule just from who you have left to play (and thus who has not been factored in to strength of schedule).

For instance, last year if you still had to play Detroit and Tampa Bay in the last four games of the season, your strength of schedule was going to drop. You may have been ahead officially on strength of schedule at that point. But over the next four games if both teams stayed tied on the other tie breakers ahead of strength of schedule, the team not playing Detroit and Tampa would end up ahead. The strength of schedule tiebreaker would not be telling the whole story of who will be ahead when it really matters, after week 17.

That's the point: not what the official standings are, but what the projection looks like going ahead.
Born and bred a cheesehead
Dexter_Sinister
14 years ago

At week 12 3/4 of the games are played games.
You can only go with played games and actual performance.

"mi_keys" wrote:



I don't know if you got the point I was trying to get at. Even at that point in the season the last four games could significantly change your strength of schedule just from who you have left to play (and thus who has not been factored in to strength of schedule).

For instance, last year if you still had to play Detroit and Tampa Bay in the last four games of the season, your strength of schedule was going to drop. You may have been ahead officially on strength of schedule at that point. But over the next four games if both teams stayed tied on the other tie breakers ahead of strength of schedule, the team not playing Detroit and Tampa would end up ahead. The strength of schedule tiebreaker would not be telling the whole story of who will be ahead when it really matters, after week 17.

That's the point: not what the official standings are, but what the projection looks like going ahead.

"CaliforniaCheez" wrote:



Interesting. But they are not talking about projections. They are talking about rankings. You can't rank someone off a projection. You don't know what Detroit and Tampa's records will be. So you can't use them in a ranking.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Fan Shout
beast (21h) : Thanks dfosterf, I'm still kicking myself for last week, as I forgot to change to pick Vikings and Lions... after putting in a holding spot.
Zero2Cool (23h) : First alternate: Elgton Jenkins Other alternates: Jordan Love, Kenny Clark, Keisean Nixon, Tucker Kraft, Josh Myers, Jaire Alexander
Zero2Cool (23h) : Pro Bowl still a thing? Guess Packers have three. Jacobs, Gary, McKinney.
dfosterf (23h) : It's a mine field with all the players sitting, etc
dfosterf (23h) : There was quite a bit of "chalk" matchups this year it seemed, but not this week coming up
Zero2Cool (23h) : Or we got better and by we I mean everyone except me
Zero2Cool (23h) : We have about six that by percent would have won nearly any season. I guess 2024 was predictable 🤷
Zero2Cool (23h) : You can check previous seasons. I quick did it and don't think anyone hit 70% before
dfosterf (23h) : Hats off to the Beast
dfosterf (23h) : I'm at 71.76% in pick 'em. 2nd place. Beast is at a flat 75% 9 games ahead. That 75% has got to be unprecedented this late in the season
beast (2-Jan) : I don't care deeply, just want some good entertaining games
Zero2Cool (2-Jan) : BTW, not serious.
Zero2Cool (2-Jan) : You don't care about it either!!!!
Zero2Cool (2-Jan) : NIL and Portal killed college, no one cares about it.
Mucky Tundra (2-Jan) : outside of Texas-Arizona St, it's been a snoozefest
beast (2-Jan) : I expect Georgia will change that tomorrow, but we'll have to wait and see. If they do, then only Big 10 and SEC are left.
beast (2-Jan) : So much for Conference Championship meaning something as 100% (so far) of the conference Champions lost their first playoff game.
Zero2Cool (1-Jan) : Jaire had surgery, season over.
Mucky Tundra (1-Jan) : I guess I need a new sig Pic. Boo
Mucky Tundra (1-Jan) : Eric Dickerson approves of this decision
beast (1-Jan) : Eagles are resting RB Saquon Barkley, so there is no chance he breaks the record despite being just 101 yards from it
Zero2Cool (1-Jan) : Patriots are waiving veteran pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue
beast (1-Jan) : Happy New Year's 🥳🎉
beast (31-Dec) : I want to them chant some songs for Daniel Whelan
beast (31-Dec) : Let's win one! Also, hopefully the Irish will stand with Daniel Whelan
Mucky Tundra (31-Dec) : After London and Brazil, I could go without an overseas game for a while
Zero2Cool (31-Dec) : Packers. Steelers. Ireland. 2025. Reports say.
Zero2Cool (30-Dec) : Matt Lafleur on if Jaire will play again this season. "Yeah I don't know... he's been dealing with swelling."
Mucky Tundra (30-Dec) : After the way they played for most of the game yesterday, I don't see how you can sit anyone for the whole game
Zero2Cool (30-Dec) : I'd say play everyone. Going into playoffs at 7th seed on two game lose streak - yucky
Zero2Cool (30-Dec) : Do the Packers have any best players?
beast (30-Dec) : Play or Rest*
beast (30-Dec) : Should the Packers play or free their best players vs the Bears?
Zero2Cool (30-Dec) : Packers should be 3 - 2 in the Division. Bonkers being swept by both Lions and Vikings. yikes
go.pack.go. (30-Dec) : All crazy stuff…and good point beast
beast (30-Dec) : Packers should be 0-5 in the division, can't say I saw that coming, even 1-4
Zero2Cool (30-Dec) : Sam Darnold 35 TD's ... another one
Zero2Cool (30-Dec) : Baker Mayfield, 39 TD's ... can't say I saw that one
Zero2Cool (30-Dec) : No matter who is playing as 7th, I think we want them to win. Get rid of 2nd seed haha
go.pack.go. (30-Dec) : That would be dhazer who was rooting for Minnesota
beast (30-Dec) : Well, Commanders are currently the 6th seed and Packers the 7th
beast (30-Dec) : Who was it in Chat, that wanted the Vikings to win (because Lions fans upset them) because Packers could not lose the 6th seed?
beast (30-Dec) : If Falcons win, Packers stay as the 6th seed and Falcons lead the NFCS, if they lose, Commanders 6th and Bucs take NFCS lead
beast (30-Dec) : Win or Loss, the NFCS is going down to week 18
Mucky Tundra (30-Dec) : if the Falcons win, how does that affect the overall NFC playoff picture? Does it mean that the NFC South comes down to week 18?
beast (30-Dec) : If Commanders win, the Packers drop to the 7th seed
beast (29-Dec) : Taylor still at it!
beast (29-Dec) : Colts get the ball and fumble turn over
packerfanoutwest (29-Dec) : Jets pull Aaron Rodgers for Tyrod Taylor
Mucky Tundra (29-Dec) : Colts-Giants now a tight one
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