Time to turn up the heat
Championships depend on cold-weather wins
By Tom Silverstein of the Journal Sentinel
Posted: Nov. 30, 2009
Green Bay The measure of a Green Bay Packers head coach will always be the number of championships he wins, and the likelihood of him winning them will always rest on his ability to succeed in December and January.
In the NFL's coldest outpost, seasons are won and lost when the weather turns for the worst.
Riding a three-game winning streak, Packers coach Mike McCarthy will lead his 7-4 team through what could be a four-game, winter gauntlet starting with a matchup against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night at Lambeau Field. The 10-day forecast calls for a low temperature of 25 degrees and a 30% chance of rain or snow, a foreshadowing of conditions to come.
After that, it's back-to-back road games at outdoor venues in Chicago and Pittsburgh and then back home for a Dec. 27 game against Seattle at Lambeau Field. McCarthy has been criticized for his cold-weather game preparation, particularly leading up to the frigid NFC Championship game loss in January 2008.
When asked why he thought this team might respond better in the cold, he pointed to several factors.
"Well, running the football and stopping the run; practicing outside definitely helps," McCarthy said Monday. "This is Green Bay Packer football. It's playing in December. We feel we're talented on the perimeter, but it starts up front. This is the time of the year where people have to run the football and stop the run and be productive with all of the aspects of the game that come off of stopping the run and running the football, so that will be our focus."
The renovation of Ray Nitschke Field, the site of training camp practices, allows the Packers to practice outdoors no matter what the temperatures because of an underground heating system. It's not that McCarthy couldn't have gone outside before, but the better conditions probably ease his mind about potential injuries.
Throughout an unseasonably warm November, McCarthy has conducted his walk-through inside the Don Hutson Center and then brought the team outside for the full team practice. The players were still on their three-day holiday following the Thanksgiving Day game, but on Tuesday they'll be back outside beginning preparations for the Ravens.
McCarthy might have a hard time convincing people that he has a running football team - the offense passes 58.5% of the time - but the Packers rank 11th in the NFL in rushing yards and tied for 10th in yards per carry (4.3).
Perhaps more importantly, the defense enters this week ranked No. 1 in the league in total yards allowed (281.5 per game) and fourth in rushing yards allowed (89.1). Only the Ravens have allowed fewer than the 3.6 yards per carry the Packers are allowing and three other teams are tied with the Packers for fewest rushing touchdowns allowed (three).
"We're doing a very good job of stopping the run, and that will be a major focus as we go into this next game," McCarthy said. "I think Baltimore's running game, particularly their three running backs, will be an excellent challenge for us.
"Statistics are a barometer. It kind of gives you something to look at both from a positive standpoint and a negative standpoint. We still need to keep focused on doing the little things, and that's the way we approach it. Being No. 1 in Week 12, 13, 14 really doesn't give you any merit. You want to be No. 1 at the end of the season."
McCarthy used the phrase "championship defense" in describing what he and defensive coordinator Dom Capers are after. Titles aren't given for shutting down the Detroit Lions, as the Packers did last week, so there is still a lot to prove.
Playing well in December and January will require continued success on defense, more production from the running game, grit from quarterback Aaron Rodgers and much better play on special teams. It also means establishing an identity as a cold-weather team.
Despite being from the West Coast, Mike Holmgren was able to do that with his team during his seven years, going 31-12 in games in December and beyond. In cold-weather games during that time, his team went 14-2 in the regular season with just one loss at home, and 4-0 in the playoffs.
Legendary coach Vince Lombardi had even more success, going 26-5-2 in all games in December and beyond and 14-2 in cold-weather games during those months. He only lost once at home in December or January.
McCarthy's teams have not displayed the same kind of dominance. In games in December and beyond, his team is 9-6, including 7-5 in cold-weather games. Under him, the Packers are 6-3 at Lambeau Field during those months.
Heading into the final five games, McCarthy must turn around that trend of allowing other teams to perform better in the cold than his does. Winning three straight in 12 days leads him to believe his team can ride the wave into December.
"We feel healthy and we feel we're confident," McCarthy said. "We're very, very realistic. There are a lot of positives about our football team and that's a challenge that we need to make sure shows up every week when we play, that we reflect the football team that we've been up to this point from a positive standpoint.
"We've got to keep working on the negatives and make sure we improve on those. Our margin of error is going to need to be a lot less than it has been in the first 11 games because its December football now. This is the most important football that well play all season."