Green Bay Packers need 3 wins to make NFC playoffs
by: Pete Dougherty
So what will it take to get into the 2009 playoffs in the NFC?
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Nine wins? Probably not.
Ten? Much more likely.
Either way, the Green Bay Packers are in good position to get into postseason play, based on their schedule and recent performance.
If the season ended today, the Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles would be the NFCs two wild-card teams at 7-4.
But with five games to play, the New York Giants (6-5) and Atlanta Falcons (6-5) are in the thick of the race, and the San Francisco 49ers (5-6) remain just on the fringe.
Theres also a chance the Eagles could catch Dallas (8-3) for first place in the NFC East Division, in which case Dallas would replace Philadelphia in the running for one of the two wild-card spots. Regardless, one of the two will win the division, and the other has a great shot at a wild card.
The Packers have played better in winning their last three games, including getting their lone win of the season over a team thats currently at least .500, Dallas.
Just as important, they have a favorable schedule, maybe the most favorable among the main contenders for those two wild-card spots.
As determined by opponents records alone, the Packers have the easiest schedule (26-27 not counting Sunday nights game between Pittsburgh and Baltimore), followed by Atlanta (27-27), with the Eagles and Giants tied (32-23) for the toughest.
A subjective look suggests the same.
The NFC contenders' schedules
The Packers play two teams below .500 (Chicago and Seattle, both 4-7) that are effectively out of the playoff race, one likely division winner (Arizona, 7-4 in the NFC West) and two teams in the playoff hunt in the AFC, Baltimore (5-5) and Pittsburgh (6-4), who played Sunday night, before this column went to print
Atlanta has three games remaining against teams below .500, including two (Buffalo and Tampa Bay) that are out of the playoff hunt. But the Falcons also play an elite team (New Orleans) and one of the other NFC wild-card contenders, the Eagles.
The Giants play two teams under .500 (Washington at 3-8 and Carolina at 4-7), but also face Dallas, Philadelphia and Minnesota (10-1).
The Eagles have it the toughest, with only one opponent under .500 (San Francisco), plus games against Atlanta, the Giants, Denver (7-4) and Dallas.
Of course, the difficulty of the schedule can change between now and any particular game, depending on circumstance, most notably injuries, but also depending on whats at stake. An opponent could fall out of the playoff race and letdown, or be in a must-win game and play with greater urgency, or have a playoff seeding wrapped up and thus rest its starters.
Chasing those last three wins
To get to 10 wins, the Packers need to win three of their final five games. Heres a quick look at each of those match ups, in order, and the possible circumstances:
Baltimore (5-5 going into Sunday night): The Ravens are a bit of a mystery this season after advancing to the AFC championship game last year. They have talent, and three of their losses are to likely playoff teams (Cincinnati, Minnesota and Indianapolis) by a total of seven points combined.
They could provide a better indication of just how much the Packers have shored up their problems protecting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which seems to be the progression over the last three weeks. Though Baltimore went into the weekend tied for only 20th in sacks, they have an elite outside rusher in Terrell Suggs if he plays he was doubtful for Sunday night because of a knee injury and run an aggressive 3-4 defense.
The Ravens will have plenty at stake regardless of what happened against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. A win and theyre tied with the Steelers for the final wild-card spot in the AFC at 6-5, with four 5-6 teams also at their heels. A loss and they might have to win out to make the playoffs, so the Packers game would be do or die.
Chicago (4-7): The Bears are finished for 2009 after losing to Minnesota on Sunday. Quarterback Jay Cutler has thrown 20 interceptions, the second-most in the league this year; their offensive line is a disaster (halfback Matt Forte is averaging 3.3 yards a carry); and the defense (No. 20 in the league in points allowed) is a shell of the group that carried the team earlier in coach Lovie Smiths tenure.
Keep in mind a few things, though. Smith always has placed great emphasis on defeating the Packers hes 7-4 against them. The Packers are 1-2 at Chicago in Mike McCarthys three previous seasons as coach. Cutler is a talented player more than capable of playing lights out in any given game.
Pittsburgh (6-4 going into Sunday night): The defending Super Bowl champs arent playing like last season, but this game at Pittsburgh is the toughest one remaining on the Packers schedule. The Steelers will be in the middle of the playoff race and looking to peak down the stretch for another possible title run.
They also should have safety Troy Polamalu back by then, and his playmaking is critical to their defense. Hes essentially missed six games because of knee injuries one of his knee injuries was on the games first possession not including Sunday night, which he also was scheduled to miss. The Steelers were 2-4 in those games.
Seattle (4-7): The Seahawks arent good, but if quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is on the field, they have a chance. In games hes been healthy enough to start and finish theyre 4-4.
Arizona (7-4): This regular-season finale is a wild card, because the Cardinals might have nothing to play for.
They have a two-game lead over San Francisco for first place in the NFC West Division, and if they win their head-to-head matchup in two weeks, they easily could have the division title wrapped up by the time they host the Packers.
But Arizona probably wont have a shot at catching Minnesota (10-1) or New Orleans (10-0) for either of the top two seeds in the NFC, which carry a first-round bye in the playoffs. If thats the case, coach Ken Whisenhunt might not care whether he gets the third or fourth seed, and could rest some key players for the first round of the playoffs the following week.
However, if the Cardinals have anything at stake, they have one of the NFLs more potent offenses with quarterback Kurt Warner and receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.