Most of the time, you have to wait until late in the year to identify an NFL teams season-defining game.
Not so with the 2009 Green Bay Packers. At least, that is, if the 4-4 Packers are going to cover their weaknesses well enough to go on a run into the playoffs. Its Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.
Win, and the Packers finally will have beaten a quality opponent and have something to pin their hopes on to go 5-2 or 6-1 to close out the schedule. Lose, and the playoffs are a pipe dream, and the job security of General Manager Ted Thompson and coach Mike McCarthy will become an issue for team President and CEO Mark Murphy and the clubs Executive Committee.
Theyre going to come out of this one as a season saver, or youre going to have a lot of questions going into the San Francisco game and a lot of questions for the remainder of the season, said a scout who knows the Packers organization well.
The scout had seen the Packers this season only in snippets on television until this week, when he graded videotape of their last two games, losses to Minnesota and at Tampa Bay. He agreed to an extended interview Thursday to share his assessment of them and Sundays game.
The scout has worked in the NFC for more than 15 years and not only knows the Packers recent history, but also works in the NFC East Division, in which the Cowboys play. Keep in mind scouts opinions can vary widely, so his observations are far from definitive and must be tempered because theyre based on only two games, both losses in which the Packers at times were at their worst.
The last two games also highlighted the Packers persistent problems this season, and yet among the several strong feelings the scout shared, the first words out of his mouth were:
I dont think their problems are terminal.
Meaning, he went on, the Packers have a core of several highly talented players in quarterback Aaron Rodgers, receiver Greg Jennings and cornerback Charles Woodson, along with an up-and-comer in linebacker Clay Matthews. Plus they have good starters in nose tackle Ryan Pickett, defensive end Cullen Jenkins, receiver Donald Driver, cornerback Al Harris and safety Nick Collins.
In other words, theyre not as far from being a good team as the last two games suggest, though overcoming the deficiencies this season will be extremely difficult.
I think theyve got talent, the scout said. I really do. But the offensive line is not good right now, and thats the kick in the (groin).
The scout said hes torn between which is the greater problem: the offensive line or the pass rush, though his assessment of the blocking, both in pass protection and the run game, was especially harsh.
The center, (Scott) Wells, I think you can win with guys like that, he said. The guard play, not a shot in the (butt), and the tackle play is horrendous. If you had big (guards) next to Wells who could help him push, hes athletic enough to get to the second level and make blocks. (But) I dont really like any of those guys.
At left tackle, he said Chad Clifton looks about finished, though hes the best the Packers have. Clifton never has been much of a run blocker, but the toll of the severe pelvic injury from the Warren Sapp hit in 2002, plus arthroscopic surgery on both shoulders and knees last offseason, plus an ankle injury this year have greatly diminished his pass blocking as well. Clifton still can handle speed rushers at age 33 but is vulnerable to inside power moves.
Hes broken down, the scout said. The worst thing that can happen to an offensive lineman, take away his shoulders (from arthroscopic surgery) and you take away his punch and you take away his power. You cant play without power.
At right tackle, the scout said, Mark Tauscher looked thin and exceptionally rusty last week in his first game since last year. And Allen Barbre, who started the first seven games, played small the previous game against Minnesota.
Very light, the scout said of Barbre. I dont see any power on this offensive line at all.
The scout considered guards Daryn Colledge and Josh Sitton nondescript in the two games; absolved halfback Ryan Grant of the bulk of the blame in the punchless run game despite his limited explosive ability; and described a lack of cohesion on the line.
(Grant) doesnt have a whole hell of a lot of room to run because the offensive line gets zero push, I mean zero push, he said. If youre a zone-blocking team, you have to have guys moving off the line of scrimmage, and I dont see that. In the two games I watched I know Minnesotas got a good (defensive) line, but I know Tampas got a bad one, and Tampa stalemated them.
When Green Bay had to throw the football, Tampa was running the twist stunts, they were looping guys. Green Bay lost track of guys, it didnt seem like there was any continuity with the blocking, with the scheme. There were a couple times, too, where they just let a linebacker run through. You get negative plays where a guy runs into the backfield because guys just flat dont second-level block (i.e., the linebackers).
The scout saw the pass rush as an equally severe problem in the two games the Packers rank No. 28 in the NFL in sacks percentage. Though he liked Pickett as a run stopper and Cullen Jenkins as an all-around player, the combination of Jenkins and Johnny Jolly as inside rushers in the nickel defense arent getting adequate push.
The other guy, 97, Jolly, does nothing for me, the scout said.
The scout also confirmed the growing realization that left outside linebacker Aaron Kampman should only rarely drop in pass coverage and looks like a different player than as a 4-3 defensive end. The Packers considered Kampman a better athlete than, for instance, Greg Ellis, who made the transition from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker with Dallas in 2003, but Kampman hasnt made the transition in pass coverage as well as Ellis.
Greg Ellis immediately was a pretty good drop player, said the scout. For eight years, (Ellis) put his hand on the ground and rushed. Hes not a great dropper but all of a sudden he reacted well enough. He was a good reactionary player. Kampman looks like, Im dropping, OK, now I see it. Hes just a tick late in coverage.
The scout nevertheless sees a good future for the Packers if they can quickly remake their offensive line.
Teds going to have to do some work on his offensive line, the scout said. Its a mess.
He gives them a decent shot against the Cowboys on Sunday even though Dallas is 6-2 and a 3-point favorite.
Dallas should be scared to death of these guys to be honest with you, the scout said. I said it wasnt terminal (for the Packers), theres too many guys on this team the Cowboys have to look at. I think youre going to get Green Bays best effort. I wouldnt be surprised if (the Cowboys) got beat by this team, wouldnt shock me if (the Packers) find some way to protect (Rodgers).
The scout questioned whether the Packers problems on the offensive line and rushing the passer would allow them to go on a sustained run even if they win Sunday. But the two games convinced him the most important piece is in place in Rodgers, whom he had not studied this year.
Sometimes he throws the ball and you go, Why did he throw that? the scout said. But throwing the ball on the move, moving to his left and throwing the ball, throwing across his body, things like that, he can play. I didnt think that guy could play, but he can play. They need to get him some help on that offensive line, though.