Nonstopdrivel
16 years ago
Your comments piqued my curiosity, so I decided to check out the numbers. I looked at Roethlisberger's career production. It turns out that Roethlisberger's 2007 season was unquestionably an aberration. Except for that year, he has never thrown more than 18 TD passes in a season. I did a quick Q test and his 32-TD performance is statistically an outlier, and it's not even close (Qcalc = .933 >>> Qcrit = .710).

For his career, Roethlisberger has averaged 238/381 (62.4%) for 2885 yards (7.9 ypc), 20 TDs, 14 INTs, and a 89.4 QB RTG.

If we were to leave out the 2007 season (which, judging by the results of the Q test, we could justifiably do), his numbers would be even lower.

Yes, he has 2 Super Bowl rings, but I don't see how he can be given the lion's share of the credit. I think he's like a little boy sitting on a skateboard holding onto a rope tied to his daddy's bike.
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porky88
16 years ago

Your comments piqued my curiosity, so I decided to check out the numbers. I looked at Roethlisberger's career production. It turns out that Roethlisberger's 2007 season was unquestionably an aberration. Except for that year, he has never thrown more than 18 TD passes in a season. I did a quick Q test and his 32-TD performance is statistically an outlier, and it's not even close (Qcalc = .933 >>> Qcrit = .710).

For his career, Roethlisberger has averaged 238/381 (62.4%) for 2885 yards (7.9 ypc), 20 TDs, 14 INTs, and a 89.4 QB RTG.

If we were to leave out the 2007 season (which, judging by the results of the Q test, we could justifiably do), his numbers would be even lower.

Yes, he has 2 Super Bowl rings, but I don't see how he can be given the lion's share of the credit. I think he's like a little boy sitting on a skateboard holding onto a rope tied to his daddy's bike.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



You're relying on a calculator to make your decision for you which is not how football is determined unless we're talking fantasy football.

Ben's 32 touchdown season happened. You can't ignore it. Not when he's accomplished as much as he has. Taking away his 32 touchdown season to make his numbers look worse then needs to be applied for Brady's 50 touchdown season to make his numbers look worse because that was the fluke based on paper. After that, Brady's numbers begin to matchup quite well with what Rodgers did a year ago. Well enough that by looking at paper and using zero prior knowledge of the player, Brady and Rodgers would be on the same level. Some may even consider ranking Rodgers ahead of Brady based on the single body of work his one season average has done.

Obviously that's ridiculous, but that's what the calculator will get you.

You say Ben road the coattails of the defense and I don't disagree, but I'll throwout Rodgers riding the coattails of the receiving core and I'll just say Aaron Rodgers is a Product of the System. I hate to say that and I don't believe that but the argument can be used if we're going to consider Ben to be a Product of Pittsburgh's defense and running game putting him into position to succeed. You can't have it one way. It works both ways.

I never felt that players should be tossed aside due to success and this is why I don't believe numbers are the tell all and end all.

By this theory that you're using which is selecting one season of Rodgers let's compare it to that of Troy Aikman.

Afterall, Aaron Rodgers season last year was better than any season Troy Aikman had in his Hall of Fame Career. Numbers wise it was.

Is Aaron Rodgers better than Troy Aikman?

I would say maybe one day if all goes well, but I won't say that now. Same thing in comparison to Ben.
Dulak
16 years ago
The whole discussion about Ben vs Arod ...

the only thing I go to say is - Watch out for the pack in 09
We are going to have one tough D; combined with the same if not better O
is going to win us games this year.
Cheesey
16 years ago

Come on, is it really necessary to throw around the "douchebag" epithet? Calling people names like this takes so little thought that it drives me nuts. Either state that you disagree and move on or tell us why you disagree with this list.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:


(What a feminine hygene product)


LOLOLOL!!! (you know i'm just kidding!!!!)

I'm not feeling so "fresh" this morning.

The nice thing about "douche", is if there is any left over, it makes a GREAT salad dressing!!!
(J/k again!!!) :thumbleft:
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Nonstopdrivel
16 years ago

You're relying on a calculator to make your decision for you which is not how football is determined unless we're talking fantasy football.

"porky88" wrote:



Yep, it's a fascinating question. Your contention is that Roethlisberger would be great wherever he went. My contention is he wouldn't. We're both ultimately speculating.

It really boils down to a philosophical choice. For example, some people say Dan Marino was a great quarterback because he piled up mind-boggling statistics in an era that wasn't so friendly to quarterbacks. Others say he was overrated because he never won a Super Bowl. I say he was overrated because he tended to melt down and throw interceptions in the playoffs . Much like Favre, Marino was king of the regular season and less than stellar in the playoffs. In contrast, Eli Manning has never had a spectacular regular season, but the year they won the Super Bowl, he did put together a string of spectacular games in the playoffs to propel them to the top. Does that mean I think he's a great quarterback? No, because he lacks consistency. Would I choose him over Rodgers, just because he has a ring? Absolutely not.

What it boils down to is that I just don't think you can judge a quarterback strictly by Super Bowl rings, any more than you can judge a career backup by his rings (there was one player on the Patriots who had 5 rings from 3 different teams if I'm not mistaken). There are just too many variables to take into consideration.

You point out that Roethlisberger doesn't have to throw as much as Rodgers. I point out that he doesn't do as well as Rodgers even when he does throw.

And around we go.
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TengoJuego
16 years ago

Chad Johnson over Greg Jennings?

Roddy White and Terrell Owens that high.

Shaun Phillips is also way to high.

I just realized Greg Jennings isn't on the list.

This list is terrible. I heard about it on the radio, but didn't think it was that bad.

Not saying it should be full of Packers. At most I see maybe four in the top 100, but the receiver rankings are full of it and not to sure about LT that high ahead of Turner too.

"porky88" wrote:



I love Greg. But he hasn't passed OchoCinco's ability yet. The guy is a hot shot. But man he can back it up.

Reggie Bush shouldnt even be on the list. He hasn't proved much about himself in the NFL yet. He's a big play threat. But still not an every down, feature back.

Dont sleep on Roddy White. The guy can play. Coming off a pretty big season too. He's kinda like Greg here in Green Bay. Our little secret lol.
Formo
16 years ago
I just looked at the list.. And while 99-11 I could care less about, I like the top 10.

10. Ed Reed, S, Baltimore Ravens: Perhaps no defensive player can impact a football game quite like Reed. On top of the frequent interceptions (he led the league in both 2004 and 2008), he can take them back to the house for scores. Reed's five interceptions in five career postseason games prove he gets it done in big games, too.

9. Julius Peppers, DE, Carolina Panthers: One of the best defensive ends in the game, Peppers was the force behind the Panthers' magical '08 season. Still playing his very best, he's one of the rare defensive players that can singlehandedly will a team to victory. With a new defensive coordinator, Carolina needs him in camp sooner rather than later. That deal needs to get done.

8. Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings: An absolute beast and arguably the NFL's best pass-rushing defensive end since Michael Strahan, Allen made an already strong Minnesota defense even stronger in '08. A nightmare for offensive tackles and an inspired leader in the locker room, he's emerged from a career riddled with off-the-field mishaps to become one of the league's very best players.

7. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints: Is No. 7 overall a little high for a player who hasn't played in a postseason game in two years? Perhaps. But there's no doubting Brees' skills, leadership and ability. Brees is a top-five quarterback in the league, and with some defense just a little tiny bit the Saints could be a top-five team in this league.

6. DeMarcus Ware, DE/LB, Dallas Cowboys: A three-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro, Ware is only getting better with every passing year. The loss of free-agent DE Chris Canty could hurt, but the addition of former Falcons LB Keith Brooking may actually free up Ware even more.

5. Purple Jesus, RB, Minnesota Vikings: A.D. had an incredible sophomore season, tossing the Vikings on his back down the stretch and carrying them to an NFC North title. There's no player in the league who has greater big-play potential, and he brings that big-play potential 25 times a game. Hands down the best running back in the league, he will be in the MVP conversation over the next decade of his career.

4. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals: Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the league. When it's all said and done, he might end up being the best wide receiver to ever step on a football field. Yeah, I wrote it. If '08 was his breakout campaign and the Super Bowl his "Hello, America" game, I can only imagine what he has in store for us in '09. Gifted with superhuman hands, an uncanny skill set and leadership qualities of a field general, Fitzgerald is the single-most valuable non-quarterback heading into the 2009 NFL season.

3. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Say what you want about the strength of the Super Bowl champions' defense, but Big Ben is unquestionably the true leader of the Pittsburgh Steelers. With two Super Bowl rings and three AFC championship game starts in just five NFL seasons, he's one of the top three quarterbacks in the league. Win another one and he could be No. 1 on this list next year. Kick and scream all you want about it Roethlisberger's the real deal.

2. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots: Without Brady in '08, the Patriots had an impressive 11-5 season, just missing the playoffs by a nutty tiebreaker scenario. The '08 season was a testament to Bill Belichick, backup quarterback Matt Cassel and offensive guru Josh McDaniels. Two of the three won't be back in '09. But Brady will be. That fact, alone, makes the Patriots the no-brainer favorite in the loaded AFC East.

1. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts: Though not the best in a statistical sense, Manning's '08 campaign was arguably the most impressive season of his decorated 11-year career. Working behind a makeshift offensive line with injuries scattered across the depth chart at just about every position for much of the year Manning led the Colts to the playoffs and another 12-win season after an uninspiring start to the season.

With other quarterbacks, you'd be worried by the departure of a head coach, starting wide receiver and several key offensive assistants. Not Manning. He's the ultimate franchise player. Give me anyone in the league to build a team around and I'm still taking Manning ... yes, even (over) Tom Terrific.



I just can't dispute any of these..
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zombieslayer
16 years ago
Porky vs Nonstop - Fascinating comments, but I side with Nonstop on the Big Ben vs Aaron debate.

In Aaron's one season as a starter, he's shown a tremendous amount of promise. Big Ben on the other hand is in the right place at the right time. You gotta be kidding if you think he earned a Ring for that first SB performance. That was bad. Bad. Bad. Bad. Bad. Bad.

Like I said, right place at the right time.

I worked at a Software company where the stock shot up to $150. We had some damn smart and talented and hard-working people there. The majority of the folks were great to work with. We also had a few morons who didn't belong there. Guess what? Those morons also made the big money. Right place at the right time.

I'm not calling Big Ben a moron by any means, but I think you can catch my drift. In life, some folks can simply ride the back of others and get lucky.

Here's another analogy. Imagine being a very close childhood friend of Hugh Hefner. You can even be boring, moderately unattractive, and broke. Guess what? You're Hugh Hefner's buddy and you get to hang out at the mansion any day of the week. Right place at the right time.

I'm not going to duplicate Nonstop's stats, but they clearly show a good QB, not a great one. As much as I'm a pass-first guy, there are EXCEPTIONS to the rule, and the Steelers are clearly an exception. You have such a solid, well-rounded team that you can take any of the top 16 starting QBs in the NFL and win those two SBs. Heck, that first year, you could have probably taken any of the top 25 starting QBs in the NFL and one or two backups and won the SB.

Yes, I just said that and I stand by it.

Porky - As for one play, that one play cost 14 points. 1st and goal from your opponent's 1 and you throw an INT that is returned for a TD. You lose the game by four points. That is the game. Right there. I don't think you need to have finished four semesters of Calculus to figure out the significance of 14 points in a game decided by 4.
My man Donald Driver
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Formo
16 years ago
The problem with the Big Ben vs. Rodgers debate..

Is you don't have any sort of body of work on Rodgers! Seriously, guys, you are jumping the gun. That's like me saying in T-Jack's first full season that hes a wash and a wasted pick. I may have been correct, but I only came to that conclusion based on one season (partial season at that). I never looked at his whole body of work. Now, a few years late, it's safe to make that same conclusion on T-Jack. The same goes with Rodgers.

Sorry, but right now, I'll take Big Ben over Rodgers. 6 days a week. And twice on Sundays.
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TengoJuego
16 years ago
AP should be Number 3. Manning, Brady, AP, Fitz, and I guess Ben.
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