If you have been keeping up with mock drafts in the lead-up to the 2023 NFL Draft, which is a mere six days away as of publication, tight end has been one of the more popular positions that draft analysts have mocked for the Green Bay Packers with their first-round selection. In fact, ESPN’s Mel Kiper mocked tight end Dalton Kincaid to the Packers in the site’s latest mock draft that was published earlier this week. If I have said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times: Green Bay has plenty of needs to be addressed, with the tight end position being one of them. Thus, should the Packers spend their first-round selection on that position? History says not so fast, my friend.
From 1986 until 2010, 28 tight ends were selected in the first round. Only four earned All-Pro honors, or 14.3% of those players. That is the second-worst percentage among every position in the NFL, according to Bleacher Report research. From 2013 until 2021 – no tight ends were selected in the first round in 2011, 2012, or 2022 – nine tight ends were selected in the first round. Not a single player earned All-Pro honors. Thus, over a 35-year window, only four tight ends drafted in the first round have earned All-Pro honors.
Plus, among those nine tight ends, only two remain on the team that drafted them – David Njoku (drafted by the Cleveland Browns in 2017) and Kyle Pitts (drafted by the Atlanta Falcons in 2021). And only two, Tyler Eifert (drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2013 and played seven seasons with the team) and Njoku, received at least a second contract with the team that drafted them. That number would obviously increase to three if the Falcons reward Pitts with a second contract.
There's a mountain of evidence that teams should not be drafting RBs in the first round (and probably beyond that as well) and I think it's pretty much a closed case at this point.
Hot take that I 70% believe: it's an even worse idea to draft a TE in the first round
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) April 14, 2023
The reasons for this:
(a) TEs take forever to develop so often times another team will reap the benefit
(b) We're **horrible** at predicting which TEs end up being good
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) April 14, 2023
Playing around with some position-specific draft curves inspired by @KevinCole___ and not only has TE had low surplus value at the top of the draft, but also the highest (!) in the 3rd round (some of this is Travis Kelce, Jonnu Smith, Mark Andrews, etc) pic.twitter.com/TtLkiGoIgs
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) April 14, 2023
The general consensus is that the top-three tight ends in the league are Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. None of them were picked in the first round. Other current notable tight ends not drafted in the first round include Darren Waller, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, Pat Freiermuth, Dalton Schultz, and Cole Kmet.
In terms of historical context, what do Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Shannon Sharpe, and Jimmy Graham all have in common? They each sit in the top ten for most all-time receiving yards among tight ends and were not drafted in the first round. In fact, the average draft slot for every single player in the top-ten list was 88th overall, according to 33rd Team.
Let's look at overall production. How many first-round tight ends have ranked in the top five in terms of receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns among tight ends in each of the last five seasons?
2018 Receptions: 0
Receiving yards: 1 (Ebron, 5th)
Touchdowns: 1 (Ebron, 1st)
2019 Receptions: 0Receiving yards: 0
Touchdowns: 0
2020 Receptions: 2 (Hockenson, 4th; Engram, 5th)
Receiving yards: 1 (Hockenson, 3rd)
Touchdowns 2
2021Receptions: 0 Receiving yards: 1 (Pitts, 3rd)
Touchdowns: 0
2022 Receptions: 2 (Hockenson, 2nd; Engram, t3rd)
Receiving yards: 2 (Hockenson, 2nd; Engram, 4th)
Touchdowns: 1 (Hockenson, 5th)
The depth of this year’s tight end class is another reason why teams that need a tight end, including the Packers, should shy away from selecting one in the first round. Put another way, the return on investment is likely to be better after the first round. The Athletic's Dane Brugler has eight tight ends on his latest top 100 draft board ; ESPN's Jordan Reid has seven tight ends in the top 100 of his prospect list; and CHTV's Joseph Randolph has six tight ends on his top 150 draft board .
Altogether, the evidence is clear that teams should draft a tight end in the first round at their own risk. We will find out soon enough if Brian Gutekunst plays with fire.
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