Sometimes I think we put too much stock into the draft as impacting the same year. It got me looking forward a little bit to see if we can figure out what future needs could be projected.

When you remove the void years, there's about 24 players signed for 2023 and two of them is a club option for S Darnell Savage and LB Rashan Gary.

After seeing what we have for 2023, I wouldn't be too surprised if this draft had some trading back to get more picks and leaned towards offensive players more than defensive players. Ted Thompson once said you have to groom offensive players, but defensive players you can more easily plug n play.

QB Jordan Love
QB Aaron Rodgers
RB A.J. Dillon
RB Kylin Hill
RB Aaron Jones
WR Amari Rodgers
TE Josiah Deguara
C Josh Myers
G Royce Newman
G Jon Runyan
LT David Bakhtiari


DT Kenny Clark
DT Tedarrell Slaton
ILB Isaiah McDuffie
OLB De'Vondre Campbell
OLB Jonathan Garvin
OLB Rashan Gary
OLB Preston Smith
CB Rasul Douglas
CB Shemar Jean-Charles
CB Eric Stokes
SS Darnell Savage
SS Vernon Scott

P Pat O'Donnell


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/2023/ 

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I believe this is how the Packers look at needs, as they so often draft a position where an important player is in a contract year.

So where as fans would say we have no need at Safety as we have Amos and Savage. Packers would say we do have a need at Safety because Amos is in a contract year and potential might not be back, we need to develop a guy now. Also if they don't pick up Savages option then he's also in a contract year. Plus the 3rd Safety can be asked to play more than 25% of snaps and the Packers seriously need a 3rd Safety either way.

Though I might add the players that will be RFA and ERFAs too (assuming they're talented enough to help and stick around), as if the Packers want them back, they can keep them for reasonable contracts.

I believe the RFAs will be
WR Malik Taylor
TE Dominique Dafney
TE Tyler Davis
OT Yosh Nijman
ILB Krys Barnes
OLB Randy Ramsey

I believe the ERFAs will be
RB Patrick Taylor
WR Juwann Winfree
C Jake Hanson
OLB Tips Galeai
S Sean Davis
LS Steven Wirtel


Based on all these roster, I say Packers needs appear to be (to me)

1) WRs (need muliple with Cobb, Lazard and Watkins all in contract years)

2a) OT (need a 3rd OT in case of injury and to compete with Nijman and Newman for starting jobs)

2b) S (3rd Safety plays 25% of the time and potential future starter with Amos in contact year)

4) DT (Lowry and Reed are in contract years and we need better depth anyways, especially with our defensive play caller liking to often go with light 6 man boxes).

5) OLB (Gute values position value, and OLB has a ton of position value, so it wouldn't surprise me to see this go higher especially since this year has a lot of good edge rushers, but the OLB coach has said he wants a 4 man rotation at OLB, I think getting a healthy Ramsey back will be huge, as he was behind Gary before his injury)

6) LS (I don't trust our LSers, though position value will have this a lot lower)

7) IOL (depends on how comfortable one is with Hanson as backup and Jenkins coming back later in the season, also ideally we'd get an OT that could also play OG if he doesn't win a starting OT spot and ideally Runyan, Myers and Newman all improve as they're young and got to play a lot last year)

8) CBs (Alexander is in a contract year and didn't stay healthy last year, but we clearly need more depth.

9) TE (TE, I truely want to put TE higher with Tonyan and Lewis going into contract years, but we have Dugara, Dafney and Davis all returning which gives us solid depth and not really a clear extra spot, unless someone (Tonyan) is expected to start the year on the PUP list). Also Packers seem to grab large WRs which some can be used a receiving TEs and they seem to be working in WR Rodgers as a versatile WR/RB/FB which is basically an H-back (which is a type of shorter TE).

10) RBs (Packers are good at RB, but could always upgrade the #3 RB spot when a RB falls further than expected, as RBs often get injured)

11) Kicker and Punter (no need unless there is a clear upgrade to be had and to save cap money)

12) QB (no need at this point)

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The best GMs don't draft players based solely on "need." Of course need comes into play when choosing between 2 players with similar grades on your board.

Gute mostly sticks to his and Ted's BPA mantra, because as Gute says: "Needs can change from April to September." Fans may not see CB as a "need" today, but god forbid, let's say 2 CBs go down with ACLs in camp. You may then be more pleased than pissed, if Gute takes a CB with one of the picks in round 1, if that is the BPA on his board at the time.

I like to get the 2022 roster set before I start discussing 2023. Too many variables can come into play between now and then.

Z, I never expect rookies to contribute much. Even 1st round picks. When they do I am pleasantly surprised.
Beast, I think there is a great need at TE. As you mentioned thinking about moving it higher. I' probably put it 4th. No lower than 5th.

Pack Nation, Overall I agree with your comments. Certainly BPA available within the confines of a tier. Probably one of the reasons Uncle Teddy traded back when he did. The Packers may not have needed the BPA on his board (Let's pretend it was a QB) but there were a number of players he viewed as being equal in ability in the next lower tier.

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When you look at need in this way, then you'll see Ted Thompson often drafted need, especially with the second pick.

Because when Driver/Jennings were going into contract years they drafted Nelson,.not knowing if they'd resign them.

When Nelson was going into a contract year, they drafted Cobb.

When Cobb was going into a contract year, they drafted Adams.

Fans said those were not need picks, because Fans assumed the team would resign them, when it seems like the Packers assumed they would not resign them and prepared for the worst, in that they were not signed long term, they were needs in the eyes of the Packers.

Gute very much does this as well, drafting RB Dillon the year RBs Jones and Williams are going into contract years.

Drafting Myers after losing Linsley, and Rodgers when Adams and MVS are going into contract years.

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Gutekunst reads PackersHome.com, what a clown.
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And again this year... the first pick is not necessarily a need pick... but the second (DT Wyatt) was as #2 and #3 DTs in DT Lowry and Reed are in contract years. And the third (WR Watson) was the Packers biggest need according to well.. EVERYONE. And then more OL/WR which the OL was a huge need as the OL didn't play up to it's normal level (in part due to injuries), but they could be missing Jenkins some more, and the Packers lost Turner, Kelly and Patrick, on top of losing Bulaga, Linsley and Taylor before that.

All needs except ILB with the first pick.

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