Starts with my normal pet peeve of how
"When the NFL uses 4-3/3-4 depth charts currently, they're actually lying to us" rant... in reality every team is basically a 4-2-5 at this point. (Made it a spoiler, for those that are tired of reading it and don't want to see it explained again)
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The NFL purposely simplifies the game, to allow more casual fans follow along (in general, I have absolutely no problem with this, it allowed me to catch along as I grew as a fan, even though no one else in my family really gives a darn about sports (except my Grandfather, who loved his Philly teams, though I wasn't around him that often, and he loved Baseball).
But I do have a problem when the NFL OVER simplifies the games, to the point where I consider it lying... look at all the 32 defensive depth charts... they're all either a 3-4 or 4-3 defense with 4 starting DBs... IMO, that's a lie! Because when you watch the teams play, they play much more often with 5 DBs on the field than 7 up front.... and all 32 teams are basically different versions of the 4-2-5 defense now.
If you count the snap counts, the Packers defense played 1040 snaps last year... in which if you count the snaps by position that's
DL 2185
OLB 2401
ILB 1335
S 2423
CB 3097
Which is divide those by the 1040 snaps (rounded to the nearest tenths), on average there are
2.1 DL
2.3 OLB
1.3 ILB
2.3 S
3.0 CB on the field at the same time.
This means the Packers had, on average 5.7 front players and 5.3 DBs on the field at the same time. In other words... the Packers were more likely to have only 5 defensive front players, than 7 of them... and FYI, this is NOT just the Packers, this is a general trend for the entire NFL. So the NFL 7 man front starting depth list to me is a lie by the NFL.
Beast's guess at how they actually play
OLB - ZaDarius Smith
DT - Kenny Clark
NT - Dean Lowry/Tyler Lancaster (Z. Smith/Gary/Keke on 3rd downs)
LOLB - Preston Smith/Rashan Gary
ILB - Christian Kirksey
ILB - Raven Greene / Oren Burks
LCB - Jaire Alexander
SS - Adrian Amos
FS - Darnell Savage
RCB - Kevin King
Nickel - Chandon Sullivan/ Josh Jackson
Packers CBs are a major huge question mark outside of Alexander... King at times was great, at other times he was absolutely horrible, but always inconsistent (both good and bad).
Last year the Packers surprised me and ran a TON of zone coverage, and I'd love to hear Pettine explain why (at least behind the senses real reason), as I'm pretty sure on average, the Packers DB would do better in man coverage than zone coverage... but there are potentially some very good reasons as to why you might do it... such as you don't trust your CBs (outside of Alexander) to hold up in zone coverage, as you can't help them out nearly as much in man. To give the pass rush extra time to get there, as with zone it can talk a bit extra time for a receiver or young QB to find the hole, and we did play against some non-veteran QBs... and zone allows the play caller to play mental games with the QBs, which Pettine usually one especially since we faced a lot of non-veteran QBs.
IF the Packers stay healthy, I expect the defense to be better.... DESPITE
having much worse results.
That's right, I think they'll be better... but have a lot worse results. How is this possible? ... I expect the 2020 Packers opponents offenses will be a hell lot better than the 2019 Packers opponents offenses... where the 2020 Packers opponents will give hell to our defenses at times, but the 2019 Packers defense would have fared even worse if it was them.
Why do I think this? In theory, the 2020 opponents QB play should be a hell lot better.
2019 opposing QBs: Had 5 games against guys that started as back-ups... and that's not counting Joe Flacco (with a horrible OL in front of him) and 2 games against the struggling Mitch Trubisky, both of whom, people think will be back-ups this year... so that's 8 games against guys that started as back-ups last year, or might be back-ups this year... and the Packers almost lost a couple of those games despite the horrible QB play from the other team.
Also, the three best QBs, Rivers, Wentz, and Stafford gave us hell...
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Rivers
Wentz
Stafford ( once)
Prescott
Carr
Cousins (x2)
Garoppolo
Moore (Chiefs back-up QB)
Trubisky (x2)
Flacco (behind a horrible OL)
Allen (then Panthers back-up QB)
Haskins (Redskins back-up rookie)
Jones (Giants back-up rookie)
Blough (Lions 3rd string QB)
2020 opposing QBs: Oh look, we get to face the three best opposing QBs from last year in Rivers, Wentz, and Stafford again...
and they might not even be in the top 4 opposing QBs this year!
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Brady
Brees
Ryan
Watson
Rivers
Wentz
Stafford (x2)
Bridgewater
Garoppolo
Cousins (x2)
Foles or Trubisky (x2)
Tannehill
Minshew
My prediction is that unless the Packers can dominant an opposing teams OL, the Packers' defense is in for a very rough year, with tons of fans bitching and desire to fire Pettine, BS recalling of the 49ers playoff game for no smart reason, false BS claims that Shanahan/49ers gave the NFL the blue print for beating the Packers defense.
The reality is that the Packers had a surprisingly weak schedule last year (the 6th easiest I believe it was, and the easiest of any team outside the NFC East and the AFC East) and they absolutely did their job of making the absolute most of it, especially on defense... but this year, the Packers look like they're going to be facing a ton of talent veteran QBs and it might be tough to make the playoffs.
Honestly, the Packers defense might be relying on the Packers offense to give them long drives and control the clock, so they can get some breathers (something the Packers offense struggled with last year, hurting the defense a bit, but hopefully that could be the biggest positive change for the Packers defense, meaning they won't get worn out late in games as often... though much better opposing QB play, will probably be the key factor)