2018 Draft order· Page 2

wpr
Preferred Member

7 years ago

And the Packers get the 14th overall spot (I believe).

Looks like the Cardinals did their job by winning and getting behind the Packers in the draft order which got rid of the 15th spot option. But the Dolphins lost and took the 12th possibility away, as the Packers couldn't match the Bengals SOS even if they won (which they did). All this left the Packers with the Redskins, who lost to the Giants... and so the tie breakers started for the 13th or 14th pick.

Packers vs Redskins in tie breakers
Overall Record = Tied
Strength of Schedule = Tied
Conference Record = Tied
Comment Opponents = Packers did better, which means Redskins get the higher pick.

Both teams
Beat the Seahawks, while losing to the Saints and Vikings (x2 for the Packers), the difference was the Cowboys games... Packers beat the Cowboys while the Redskins lost both games to the Cowboys.

Originally Posted by: beast

Got this off Walters

Round 1
1. Cleveland (0-16) .520
2. New York Giants (3-13) .531
3. Indianapolis (4-12) .480
4. Cleveland - from Houston (4-12) .516
5. Denver (5-11) .492
6. New York Jets (5-11) .520
7. Tampa Bay (5-11) .555
8. Chicago (5-11) .559
9. San Francisco (6-10)# .512
10. Oakland (6-10)# .512
11. Miami (6-10) .543
12. Cincinnati (7-9) .465
13. Washington (7-9) .539
14. Green Bay (7-9) .539
15. Arizona (8-8) .488
16. Baltimore (9-7) .441
17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) .457
18. Seattle (9-7) .492
19. Dallas (9-7) .496
20. Detroit (9-7) .496
21. Tennessee* (9-7) .434
22. Buffalo* (9-7) .492
23. Atlanta* (10-6) .543
24. Carolina* (11-5) .539
25. Jacksonville* (10-6) .434
26. Buffalo - from Kansas City* (10-6) .477
27. Los Angeles Rams* (11-5) .504
28. New Orleans* (11-5) .535
29. Pittsburgh* (13-3) .453
30. Minnesota* (13-3) .492
31. Philadelphia* (13-3) .461
32. New England* (13-3) .484

Houston -> Cleveland: Deshaun Watson
Kansas City -> Buffalo: Patrick Mahomes
#49ers and Raiders order will be determined by coin flip
(* - playoff team).
The decimal number next to each team is strength of schedule.

beast
Select Member

7 years ago

#12

I know the defense needs help but Teddy has been so terrible when drafting the D in the first round I wouldn't mind going WR @ 14.

Originally Posted by: wpr

Thompson seems very good at grabbing WRs in the 2nd round... and Packers need more pass rushers and CBs.

I don't know if their stats to it, but I've read the Packers defense was a lot better with both Matthews and Perry on the field at the same time, but if either one of them needed a breather or got injured, the defense was much worse without both of them on the field at the same time.

There were 998 defensive snaps
Matthews played 636 snaps (63.7%) and so off the field for 362 snaps.
Perry played 545 snaps (54.6%) and so off the field for 453 snaps.

So that's a combined 815 snaps that they were off the field, which is 81.7% of the season that a very good 3rd Pass Rusher might of helped. Of course Brooks and Biegel graded out average according to PFF, and maybe if they were fully healthy, they might of done a lot better. But it'd be nice to have certain to better depth going forward.

Frackrell could break out in the future, but as of right now, he seems like a QB spy ILB or ST guy... of course a different system might help him. One where he's used more like a surprise blitzing LB and not a full time edge defender might help him.

And CB could be upgraded and more depth. If fully healthy, Randall and King might be good (and that's assuming King develops more), but seems like their is a drop off to House (who's a FA) and even bigger drop off after House.

beast
Select Member

7 years ago

#13

Other random notes.

- Without the Packers' 3 overtime victories (Bengals, Bucs, Browns), the Packers would of had the 5th overall pick.

- Packers were tied for the 5th strength of schedule (5th hardest schedule)

- Bears were 1st for strength of schedule (toughest schedule).

- The top 4 weakest strength of schedules are all in the AFC Playoffs, and the Chiefs (8th) and Patriots (10th) weren't far behind.

- The NFC only has one top 10 weakest schedule (Eagles, 6th)... next is Vikings at 12th, Rams at 18th and of course with 3 teams from the NFC South, they're all among the top 8 strongest schedules.

- Dolphins were the only AFC team in the top 9 strength of schedules.... Jets, Browns, Texans and Raiders were the only other AFC teams in top 17 strength of schedules.

So based on strength of schedule NFC is tougher to win in. So NFC > AFC?

greengold
Member Topic Starter

7 years ago

#14

That strength of schedule stat looks hokey in my opinion. It is self-fulfilling the way I understand it. Every game you lose gives your opponents another win, making your schedule appear harder/stronger by SOS.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the only difference between the Vikings and Packers schedule for example was the Vikings beat the 7-9 Packers twice, while the Packers lost to the 13-3 Vikings twice. Every other opponent was the same right? So the Packers played a tough .539 schedule and the Vikings played a weak .492 schedule?

Am I missing something?

beast
Select Member

7 years ago

#15

Originally Posted by: greengold

To a degree you are correct, but to a degree you are mistaken as well. But to some degree it does go by division and your win/losses, but certainly not completely by that.

The Giants, Colts, Broncos and Jets all have the worst record in their division but they didn't have the toughest schedule in division. Rams won their division and yet they almost had the toughest schedule in their division... Steelers also won their division and didn't have the toughest schedule in their division.

Packers is tied for 5th toughest, Vikings tied for 18th toughest (which is average more than weak).

Packers played Seahawks and Cowboys, while the Vikings played the Rams and Redskins

greengold
Member Topic Starter

7 years ago

#16

Haha thanks. I thought the Vikings played the Seahawks but I see that was preseason. Doh!

Yeah only the AFC opponents and NFC north opponents are identical. I guess I knew that at one time.

I did just notice though, Seahawks and Cowboys = 18 combined wins. Rams and Redskins = 18 combined wins.

beast
Select Member

7 years ago

#17

Originally Posted by: greengold

AFC Division (AFC North) = 4 Games
NFC Division (NFC South) = 4 Games
Other division (Bears/Lions) = 4 Games
So within the same division it is 75% the same.

And since they both combine to equal 18 combined wins, you are then correct that the difference is that they face each other. But still if Packers would beaten the Vikings, it would not of been equal because Vikings won more.

greengold
Member Topic Starter

7 years ago

#18

Originally Posted by: beast

It still comes down to Vikings and Packers "un-common opponents" having the same W-L record of 112-~~128~~ 112 or ~~.466~~ .500. But the Vikings got the 7-9 Packers twice and the Packers got the 13-3 Vikings twice.

Not to harp on it but it just looks weird that Cleveland is portrayed as having an above average .520 schedule difficulty while Pittsburgh drew a .453. Cleveland didn't get to play any 0-16 teams, but the other AFC North teams got to do so twice.

beast
Select Member

7 years ago

#19

It still comes down to Vikings and Packers "un-common opponents" having the same W-L record of 112-128 or .466. But the Vikings got the 7-9 Packers twice and the Packers got the 13-3 Vikings twice.

Not to harp on it but it just looks weird that Cleveland is portrayed as having an above average .520 schedule difficulty while Pittsburgh drew a .453. Cleveland didn't get to play any 0-16 teams, but the other AFC North teams got to do so twice.

Originally Posted by: greengold

Yeah the extremes skew the data and you can't get more extreme than Cleveland.

But if you look at two teams in different divisions, where the teams they faces might be very different.

Also a lot at it from the perspective of division average. Toughest to Easiest.
54.3% NFC South
52.2% NFC North
51.0% AFC East
50.7% NFC East
49.9% NFC West
48.5% AFC West
47.0% AFC North
46.6% AFC South

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