Let’s say the Packers win at Carolina on Sunday. That would boost their playoff odds to 21 percent, while a loss would put them at less than one percent. So that step has to happen. Let’s also say the Vikings defeat the Bengals at U.S. Bank Stadium, clinching the NFC North and moving them closer to a bye.
Then let’s say the Vikings lose at Green Bay in Week 16, then beat the Bears in Week 17 to finish 12-4. There’s a good chance that will be good enough for the No. 2 seed. Now let’s give Green Bay a win at Detroit in Week 17 and sneak them into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed ahead of a team currently ahead of them like Seattle (with whom Green Bay owns a tiebreaker edge in head-to-head).
The Vikings would have a first-round bye as the No. 2 seed, with the Eagles No. 1. The Packers, as the No. 6 seed, would open on the road against the No. 3 seed — the best division winner not to get a bye. That will be a good team, for sure, but it would probably be someone like the Rams or Saints — a potentially vulnerable overachiever.
Let’s say the Packers win that game to get to the divisional round. As the lowest remaining seed, they would then play the top-seeded Eagles in Philly — but not the injured Wentz. Philadelphia is clearly the more well-rounded team and would likely still be a decided favorite in that game, but Green Bay’s chances of pulling an upset would be much greater than they would be if Wentz were healthy.
So let’s say Green Bay wins that game, and the Vikings win their playoff opener at home against the winner of the game between the lowest division winner and top wild card (which again, will be a good team and is certainly no gimme).
That would give the Vikings home field advantage in the NFC title game against the Packers, with the Super Bowl on the line. Can you even imagine the chaos?