Why the Packers Have 7 Losses & 4 Flukey Ones

Nov 30, 2008 07:11 PM

Signs of a young, immature team: Not being able to finish or win a close game. The Packers have lost four games by four points or less this season. It's rather dumbfounding that a team this talented can lose in such a fashion.

The Falcons game was decided by a Mason Crosby field goal taken off the board due to a holding call. The Vikings game was lost after Crosby missed a 52 yarder (in a dome!). The Titans beat us because the defense dropped at least three Kerry Collins eggs, and the A-Rodg just flat out got killed by the Bucs. Today, Scott Wells snapping the ball over A-Rodg's head, a goal line stand by the Titans with 2 minutes left and a great catch by Steve Smith (Charles Woodson got humiliated) proved to be the deciding factors. These games were stolen from us, because our defense let them make big plays when it counted.

In baseball, it's common knowledge that hitting well with runners in scoring position is a stats that fluxuates, and hitting extremely well or badly with runners in scoring position is flukey. In the end, everything usually balances out.

I feel this translates into Packers wins and losses. Over half the time, I believe, the more talented team wins the football game. Without a doubt, the Packers are one of the most talented teams in football. I would bet over 75% of the time, the team in control of the game with less than 5 minutes left wins. In each case (when it comes to those four losses), this is true. These close losses are flukes than anything else. If I continue to ride the my assumption, and everything balances out, the Packers win out 3 of those games, and sit pretty at 8-4. Big difference. In a season which we could've used a couple breaks (1st year starter at QB, injury riddled defense), we have gotten none when it counted.

Aaron Rodgers hasn't been able to overcome much when being down. He tries to get everything back at once, which leads to his interceptions. In losses, Rodger's has thrown 8 of his 10 interceptions, most of which are late in the game, when we can't afford to run the ball.

Here's a laundry list as to why the Packers have seven losses:

No running game. Rodgers and the offense is at their best when we run the ball, as Rodgers off play-action is one of the best passers in football. Now we're running the ball well. For some reason, it always takes half a season to fix the offense line.

Protection problems. Rodgers had been getting killed all season. Clifton had clearly lost a step. Pressure on any QB makes them mortal (just ask Tom Brady).

Bad, bad run defense. If you get run on constantly, you lose. Plain and simple. No matter how good your pass D is (and we have the best).

Allowing the big play. We lead the league in allowing plays over 20 yards or more. Big plays kill momentum, morale and leads. With this bump n' coverage, some speedy or strong WR's are bound to burn Al or Charles, but not having safety help is bad. Bigby sucks in coverage, as does Rouse, and Collins has been vulnerable, though he's having an All-Pro season.

Lack of a pass rush. Hitting the QB combined with this lockdown coverage really helps, but when you give him time, expect bad things even against a great secondary. FIRE BOB SANDERS!

Why the Packers have five wins:

Interceptions, mostly returned for touchdowns. Creating points of turnovers is one of the great equalizers in football. This won't last though, which worries me for next year:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3717733 

Balanced offense. Again, running the ball leads to clock control, more 3rd down conversions, and a better passing attack due to play-action.

That's it. The cons outweigh the negatives. 5-7.

Aaron Rodgers Will Have a Better Year Than Favre

Aug 06, 2008 12:10 PM

Yup I said it. Aaron Rodgers will have similar numbers to Brett Favre in Tampa Bay at the end of it all. Now this statement is dependent on both Quarterbacks staying healthy, but we don't really need to worry about Brett's health. I have a good reason for this statement.

I was only three years ago when Brett Favre threw for a 20/29 TD/INT ratio. His passer rating was 70 and the Packers went 4-12. Head Coach Mike Sherman was fired, and Mike McCarthy was brought in. The following year Brett had a 18/18 TD/INT ratio, but his completion percentage had dropped five points from 61% to 56%. A moderate improvement.

Last year, Brett Favre threw for a 29/15 TD/INT ratio, over 4,000 yards, a 66.5 completion percentage and a 7.8 yards per completion average mark. The last two stats were Brett's highest of his career, an outstanding feat.

Now how does one account for this significant improvement? Well.....

Of Brett Favres 4,155 yards thrown for last season, 2,061 of which came after the catch. That's called YAC. Meaning that Brett Favre can thanks his dynamic wide-outs for half of his yards thrown. He wouldn't have sniffed 4,000 yards if it werent for the likes of Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones.

The Packers run a spread, West Coast Offense. Bill Walsh invented the West Coast attack with the 49ers. It calls for short, precisely time completions, and high percentage throws. It's how he turned Joe Montana from a short, skinny, weak-armed kid into one of the greatest of all-time.

Mike McCarthy had implemented the same attack in Green Bay, though with a Brett Favre lemon-twist.

Brett learned to trust the system and play within it. He learned to trust the new players and coaches around him, and embrace them. It worked perfectly.

It's obvious when Brett tried to do his own thing. The huge downfield throws, great catches. Those worked too, but only at certain time. Against Dallas last year, he threw the ball 30 yards downfield every throw, and he was intercepted numerous times, had his worst game of his career, and got injured. D'oh!

Now Brett's great season wasn't totally a product of Mike McCarthy's doing. He had played under the same system earlier in his career. His intangibles: the leadership, the experience, as well as a rocket arm only aided him.

Aaron Rodgers has learned in his system for three years. He will play within the system. The West Coast offense breeds good Quarterback play. I strongly believe he'll have a similar year to Brett in Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay doesn't have the great wide-outs or the great running back. Green Bay does. Rodgers has the weapons and knowledge. Brett Favre is going to have less than a month to pick-up the playbook (though familiar) and create chemistry with his wide-outs.

Though I believe their numbers will be similar, the records won't be. Brett Favre single-handedly won a couple games last year (Broncos and Chiefs), and the Packers can expect to lose more games this year. It's just natural. Having Brett as the Quarterback will obviously yield more wins than having Rodgers. There will be growing pains for Rodgers. I haven't a clue how Tampa Bay will do. They do play in a weak division, and have a great defense. Green Bay is more talented though.

My predictions:

Rodgers:

3,500 yards, 23 TD/ 16 INT.

Favre:
3,800 yards, 26 TD/ 14 INT

UPDATE: 12:09 AM THURSDAY

Favre JUST got traded to the Jets.

Rodgers WILL have a better year than Favre if healthy. Favre will have to learn a whole new offense, and deal with the media pressure of NYC. Not to mention the Jets really lack offensive weapons. Picking up a new playbook and offense in less than a month to prepare for an NFL season is going to be very difficult. Oh, and he's playing in the harder league.

I think the Jets would have a horrible year, and I thought this prior to the Favre trade. Having a Quarterback than can actually throw the ball 20 yards (Pennington can't), but not always throw a million interceptions (Clemens), will help, but the Jets will miss the playoffs. The AFC simply has better teams. You don't build through free agency, you build through the draft. They still have giant holes, especially on defense. I wonder why he would WANT to go to the Jets. At least I can watch him play every Sunday.

The Packers only get a 1st rounder if the Jets make the Super Bowl so.... GO JETS!

NEW FAVRE PREDICTION:

3,200 yards, 21 TD/20 INT

I can sum up the year in a lot less space.

Offense didn't score enough, defense allowed to much. Result equals loses.

There is enough in every aspect of the team that needs to be fixed. Part of that may have been addressed for the Defense. Now lets see some more steps.

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote: