Nonstopdrivel
16 years ago
I highly recommend this kid's blog, which can be found here . For a highschooler, he's a damn good writer (despite the occasional typo here and there), and pretty insightful to boot. I thought this would be an interesting (albeit depressing) look back a couple of months in history.

Why the Packers Have 7 Losses & 4 Flukey Ones

Nov 30, 2008 07:11 PM

Signs of a young, immature team: Not being able to finish or win a close game. The Packers have lost four games by four points or less this season. It's rather dumbfounding that a team this talented can lose in such a fashion.

The Falcons game was decided by a Mason Crosby field goal taken off the board due to a holding call. The Vikings game was lost after Crosby missed a 52 yarder (in a dome!). The Titans beat us because the defense dropped at least three Kerry Collins eggs, and the A-Rodg just flat out got killed by the Bucs. Today, Scott Wells snapping the ball over A-Rodg's head, a goal line stand by the Titans with 2 minutes left and a great catch by Steve Smith (Charles Woodson got humiliated) proved to be the deciding factors. These games were stolen from us, because our defense let them make big plays when it counted.

In baseball, it's common knowledge that hitting well with runners in scoring position is a stats that fluxuates, and hitting extremely well or badly with runners in scoring position is flukey. In the end, everything usually balances out.

I feel this translates into Packers wins and losses. Over half the time, I believe, the more talented team wins the football game. Without a doubt, the Packers are one of the most talented teams in football. I would bet over 75% of the time, the team in control of the game with less than 5 minutes left wins. In each case (when it comes to those four losses), this is true. These close losses are flukes than anything else. If I continue to ride the my assumption, and everything balances out, the Packers win out 3 of those games, and sit pretty at 8-4. Big difference. In a season which we could've used a couple breaks (1st year starter at QB, injury riddled defense), we have gotten none when it counted.

Aaron Rodgers hasn't been able to overcome much when being down. He tries to get everything back at once, which leads to his interceptions. In losses, Rodger's has thrown 8 of his 10 interceptions, most of which are late in the game, when we can't afford to run the ball.

Here's a laundry list as to why the Packers have seven losses:

No running game. Rodgers and the offense is at their best when we run the ball, as Rodgers off play-action is one of the best passers in football. Now we're running the ball well. For some reason, it always takes half a season to fix the offense line.

Protection problems. Rodgers had been getting killed all season. Clifton had clearly lost a step. Pressure on any QB makes them mortal (just ask Tom Brady).

Bad, bad run defense. If you get run on constantly, you lose. Plain and simple. No matter how good your pass D is (and we have the best).

Allowing the big play. We lead the league in allowing plays over 20 yards or more. Big plays kill momentum, morale and leads. With this bump n' coverage, some speedy or strong WR's are bound to burn Al or Charles, but not having safety help is bad. Bigby sucks in coverage, as does Rouse, and Collins has been vulnerable, though he's having an All-Pro season.

Lack of a pass rush. Hitting the QB combined with this lockdown coverage really helps, but when you give him time, expect bad things even against a great secondary. FIRE BOB SANDERS!

Why the Packers have five wins:

Interceptions, mostly returned for touchdowns. Creating points of turnovers is one of the great equalizers in football. This won't last though, which worries me for next year:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3717733 

Balanced offense. Again, running the ball leads to clock control, more 3rd down conversions, and a better passing attack due to play-action.

That's it. The cons outweigh the negatives. 5-7.


UserPostedImage
HoustonMatt
16 years ago
Interesting article in that the kid begins by attributing Packer losses to randomness, yet then goes on to list specific deficiencies within the team that contributed to the losses.

I probably shouldn't even be responding because I'm too tired to fully breakdown my thoughts, but it's entirely contradictory to assign both randomness AND specific causality as primary reasons for the same event.

I've said all along that this team doesn't have any fundamental flaws that prevents it from winning. I truly believe that if you run last season over 1000 times, that team wins 9+ games more often than not.

If the kid's still in high school and is already realizing the role randomness plays in sports (and all aspects of life for that matter) he's much further along than I was at his age, but he's still got some learning to do.

Thanks for posting that.

(I'm going to bed. I'll pick this topic back up in the morning.)
blank
all_about_da_packers
16 years ago
It's kinda contradictory to say we have the best pass D, when our D has given up its fair share of long pass plays (over 20 yards) that led to us being a team that led the league in giving up big plays.

To be honest, the writer takes some mistakes too lightly. Crosby missed the Vikings FG, but that's part of a larger problem: Crosby struggled far more often than he should have in kicking game deciding FGs. Time after time we've seen the HC say he has faith in Crosby, even the players seem to support Crosby fully... yet when it mattered most this season Crosby struggled. That's worrying.

The loss in the Titans I will say was undeserved... I still can't see where Moll deserved to be called for holding.

In the end though, there are no consolation losses. Clearly the fluke losses mounted, and no doubt led to a decline in the confidence of our defensive players. The losses did reveal some bigger problems, and I feel it's a cop out to sit back and say "but hey, they were close."

One of the bigger problems is that the Packers sturggle to get into a rhythm on offense, early in games. That has to change.

I do agree with Matt though, bring this exact same team (er, with fired defensive coaches) back next season and I'd expect them to win 9 games.
The NFL: Where Greg Jennings Happens.
Nonstopdrivel
16 years ago
I read back a little farther through this kid's archives, and I found a post in which he made some preseason predictions. I was impressed to see that he nailed his Favre predictions (3,200 yards, 21 TD/20 INT) almost exactly on the head (actual: 3,472, 22 TD/22 INT). He significantly underestimated Rodgers' numbers (3,500 yards, 23 TD/16 INT), though (actual: 4,038 yards, 28 TD/13).

I've invited him to check out our forum. It will be interesting to see if he shows up.

Aaron Rodgers Will Have a Better Year Than Favre

Aug 06, 2008 12:10 PM

Yup I said it. Aaron Rodgers will have similar numbers to Brett Favre in Tampa Bay at the end of it all. Now this statement is dependent on both Quarterbacks staying healthy, but we don't really need to worry about Brett's health. I have a good reason for this statement.

I was only three years ago when Brett Favre threw for a 20/29 TD/INT ratio. His passer rating was 70 and the Packers went 4-12. Head Coach Mike Sherman was fired, and Mike McCarthy was brought in. The following year Brett had a 18/18 TD/INT ratio, but his completion percentage had dropped five points from 61% to 56%. A moderate improvement.

Last year, Brett Favre threw for a 29/15 TD/INT ratio, over 4,000 yards, a 66.5 completion percentage and a 7.8 yards per completion average mark. The last two stats were Brett's highest of his career, an outstanding feat.

Now how does one account for this significant improvement? Well.....

Of Brett Favres 4,155 yards thrown for last season, 2,061 of which came after the catch. That's called YAC. Meaning that Brett Favre can thanks his dynamic wide-outs for half of his yards thrown. He wouldn't have sniffed 4,000 yards if it werent for the likes of Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones.

The Packers run a spread, West Coast Offense. Bill Walsh invented the West Coast attack with the 49ers. It calls for short, precisely time completions, and high percentage throws. It's how he turned Joe Montana from a short, skinny, weak-armed kid into one of the greatest of all-time.

Mike McCarthy had implemented the same attack in Green Bay, though with a Brett Favre lemon-twist.

Brett learned to trust the system and play within it. He learned to trust the new players and coaches around him, and embrace them. It worked perfectly.

It's obvious when Brett tried to do his own thing. The huge downfield throws, great catches. Those worked too, but only at certain time. Against Dallas last year, he threw the ball 30 yards downfield every throw, and he was intercepted numerous times, had his worst game of his career, and got injured. D'oh!

Now Brett's great season wasn't totally a product of Mike McCarthy's doing. He had played under the same system earlier in his career. His intangibles: the leadership, the experience, as well as a rocket arm only aided him.

Aaron Rodgers has learned in his system for three years. He will play within the system. The West Coast offense breeds good Quarterback play. I strongly believe he'll have a similar year to Brett in Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay doesn't have the great wide-outs or the great running back. Green Bay does. Rodgers has the weapons and knowledge. Brett Favre is going to have less than a month to pick-up the playbook (though familiar) and create chemistry with his wide-outs.

Though I believe their numbers will be similar, the records won't be. Brett Favre single-handedly won a couple games last year (Broncos and Chiefs), and the Packers can expect to lose more games this year. It's just natural. Having Brett as the Quarterback will obviously yield more wins than having Rodgers. There will be growing pains for Rodgers. I haven't a clue how Tampa Bay will do. They do play in a weak division, and have a great defense. Green Bay is more talented though.

My predictions:

Rodgers:

3,500 yards, 23 TD/ 16 INT.


Favre:
3,800 yards, 26 TD/ 14 INT

UPDATE: 12:09 AM THURSDAY

Favre JUST got traded to the Jets.

Rodgers WILL have a better year than Favre if healthy. Favre will have to learn a whole new offense, and deal with the media pressure of NYC. Not to mention the Jets really lack offensive weapons. Picking up a new playbook and offense in less than a month to prepare for an NFL season is going to be very difficult. Oh, and he's playing in the harder league.

I think the Jets would have a horrible year, and I thought this prior to the Favre trade. Having a Quarterback than can actually throw the ball 20 yards (Pennington can't), but not always throw a million interceptions (Clemens), will help, but the Jets will miss the playoffs. The AFC simply has better teams. You don't build through free agency, you build through the draft. They still have giant holes, especially on defense. I wonder why he would WANT to go to the Jets. At least I can watch him play every Sunday.

The Packers only get a 1st rounder if the Jets make the Super Bowl so.... GO JETS!

NEW FAVRE PREDICTION:

3,200 yards, 21 TD/20 INT


UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
16 years ago
By the way, I never said I agreed with everything this kids says (I don't). I'm just impressed with the level of thought and attempt at thoroughness he's tried to put into his blog.
UserPostedImage
PackFanWithTwins
16 years ago
I can sum up the year in a lot less space.

Offense didn't score enough, defense allowed to much. Result equals loses.

There is enough in every aspect of the team that needs to be fixed. Part of that may have been addressed for the Defense. Now lets see some more steps.
The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!
Cheesey
16 years ago

I can sum up the year in a lot less space.

Offense didn't score enough, defense allowed to much. Result equals loses.

There is enough in every aspect of the team that needs to be fixed. Part of that may have been addressed for the Defense. Now lets see some more steps.

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:


You forgot......special teams breakdowns! :thumbleft:
UserPostedImage
Dulak
16 years ago

I can sum up the year in a lot less space.

Offense didn't score enough, defense allowed to much. Result equals loses.

There is enough in every aspect of the team that needs to be fixed. Part of that may have been addressed for the Defense. Now lets see some more steps.

"Cheesey" wrote:


You forgot......special teams breakdowns! :thumbleft:

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:



What was wrong with special teams this year? Personally I didnt think our ST was that bad.

Blackmon always had decent runs often did better then the opposition. Sure there could be improvement.
bozz_2006
16 years ago
it was our coverage units that were awful.
UserPostedImage
Cheesey
16 years ago

I can sum up the year in a lot less space.

Offense didn't score enough, defense allowed to much. Result equals loses.

There is enough in every aspect of the team that needs to be fixed. Part of that may have been addressed for the Defense. Now lets see some more steps.

"Dulak" wrote:


You forgot......special teams breakdowns! :thumbleft:

"Cheesey" wrote:



What was wrong with special teams this year? Personally I didnt think our ST was that bad.

Blackmon always had decent runs often did better then the opposition. Sure there could be improvement.

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:


As good as our returns sometimes were, like Bozz said, our coverage units stunk. How many times did we see the other team make a HUGE kickoff return right after we scored? Happened WAY too often. Plus, the blocked FG and the missed FG that would have won the Viking and Bears games for us were huge. And our punting sucked most of the year.
UserPostedImage
Fan Shout
Mucky Tundra (5h) : Will there be a tracker on the ball or something?
Zero2Cool (8h) : uh oh
Martha Careful (8h) : Too bad camera's can't spot the ball as well.
Mucky Tundra (10h) : So will the chain gang be gone completely or will they still be around as a backup or whatever?
Zero2Cool (11h) : The method for measuring first downs in the NFL will switch from chain gangs to camera-based technology in 2025, the league announced.
Martha Careful (14h) : A big step in the right direction. Just put in the college system is very very good.
Zero2Cool (16h) : NFL has passed a rule that allows both teams to possess the ball in OT during the regular season
Zero2Cool (16h) : Touchbacks on kickoffs will now bring the ball to the 35-yard line.
beast (31-Mar) : It might of gotten more popular recently, but braiding hair (even men) in certain cultures goes back for centuries.
Martha Careful (30-Mar) : Is men braiding their hair a new style thing? Watching the NCAA men's tournament many players have done
Zero2Cool (29-Mar) : Ha. Well, it'd be nice for folks to reset their own password. Via validated email 😏
beast (29-Mar) : Monopoly was supposed to be an educational game, that show how evil capitalism was and how we should avoid it
beast (29-Mar) : Lol, I was thinking username would be better, as then I wouldn't have to keep an email up to date lol 😂
beast (29-Mar) : Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : I was thinking email because I think it'll make folks keep it up todate lol
wpr (29-Mar) : sure is
Zero2Cool (29-Mar) : Monopoly is a rip off of The Landlord's Game
wpr (27-Mar) : 28 days until the draft
earthquake (27-Mar) : Which seemed strange to my 9 year old self, that you could be a fan for a team other than the one you play for
earthquake (27-Mar) : Nothing eventful happened, other than it being clear that he was a bengals fan
earthquake (27-Mar) : And we went and hung out with him one afternoon, I must have been 9 or so
earthquake (27-Mar) : That’s wild, when I was a kid my friend lived in the same apartment complex in De Pere
Mucky Tundra (27-Mar) : Only career highspot was a 200 yard rushing game while playing for the Cardinals
Mucky Tundra (27-Mar) : He is a former Packer. Drafted out of Northern Illinois. Didn't do much in GB.
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Despicable
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : Former NFL. I think Packers too
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : NFL RB Leshon Johnson has been charged in a massive dog fighting operation, with the FBI seizing over 190 Pit Bulls
Mucky Tundra (26-Mar) : Some real irony of a QB as short as Wilson playing for the Giants
Mucky Tundra (26-Mar) : Giants country, let's be the tall beings of lore!
Mucky Tundra (26-Mar) : Russell Wilson signs with the Giants.
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : I was thinking email because I think it'll make folks keep it up todate lol
wpr (25-Mar) : I don't think there is a significant difference. I use a user name for many. Others email.
Martha Careful (25-Mar) : email
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : would it be better to use EMAIL or USERNAME to log into a site?
wpr (25-Mar) : Thanks Zero
Zero2Cool (24-Mar) : New forum has the ability to Thank a post now.
beast (24-Mar) : And the only time they have won the Championship in an even year, was the first time they did, in 2006.
beast (24-Mar) : Since 2007, there have been 10 odd numbered years, Wisconsin Women have won the Championship in 7 of those 10 odd numbered years.
buckeyepackfan (24-Mar) : Congratulations Lady Badger Hockey Team. NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!!
Zero2Cool (23-Mar) : I don't think it's completed yet. it was just announced last month, right?
dhazer (23-Mar) : did netflix ever release the Packers documentary
Zero2Cool (21-Mar) : And it is glorious!
beast (21-Mar) : Unsigned FA QB Rodgers is supposedly in the Steelers building
Martha Careful (19-Mar) : But I don't own a car! So can I still use it in my apartment?
Zero2Cool (19-Mar) : btw, new site auto updates
Zero2Cool (19-Mar) : Woohoo!
TheKanataThrilla (19-Mar) : Oops I guess I should have updated the site before posting
TheKanataThrilla (19-Mar) : Jeremy Fowler @JFowlerESPN · Follow Source: Free agent WR/return specialist Mecole Hardman is signing with the #Packers on a one-year deal.
Zero2Cool (18-Mar) : Former Packers wide receiver Bob Long, who stayed in Wisconsin after playing days, dies at age 83
Martha Careful (17-Mar) : PFOW, Pati O'Furniture
wpr (17-Mar) : Thanks dfosterf. Been a while since I heard the song.
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2024 Packers Schedule
Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
Eagles
Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
Titans
Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
Rams
Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
CARDINALS
Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
Jaguars
Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
Bears
Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
49ERS
Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
DOLPHINS
Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
Seahawks
Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Dec 29 @ 3:25 PM
Vikings
Sunday, Jan 5 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Jan 12 @ 3:30 PM
Eagles
Recent Topics
10h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

12h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

31-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

30-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

29-Mar / Random Babble / wpr

28-Mar / Feedback, Suggestions and Issues / dfosterf

28-Mar / Random Babble / Martha Careful

26-Mar / Random Babble / Mucky Tundra

25-Mar / Random Babble / Martha Careful

24-Mar / Random Babble / packerfanoutwest

24-Mar / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

21-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

19-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

19-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

18-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.