Odds were in Green Bay's favor for win

nerdmann
Premier Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

The Packers were in control of their NFC Championship Game with the Seattle Seahawks throughout the second half Sunday. And according to ProFootballReference.com, the Packers' chances of winning ranged between 94.4% at halftime and 99.9% with 3:07 remaining.

JSOnline wrote:

So from a purely analytical standpoint, what is more likely?

This 13-sigma outlier, or this team purposely taking a dive? Let's just ignore Burnett downing the INT with a wide open field in front of him as if he was terrifed that the Packers would get too far ahead, and look strictly, dispassionately at the numbers.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

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Dulak
Veteran Member

9 years ago

Originally Posted by: nerdmann

Ouch, that hurts even more looking at those odds.

I had a fair amount of dough on the packers to win the SB also ...

PackFanWithTwins
Veteran Member

9 years ago

What are the odds of a team taking a dive driving to score a game tying FG?

The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!

nerdmann
Premier Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

What are the odds of a team taking a dive driving to score a game tying FG?

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins

I don't know, but they sure made it look easy. Right up until they got to about the 35. Suddenly, BAM! Nothing could be more difficult.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Rockmolder
Honored Member

9 years ago

Originally Posted by: nerdmann

This one's way too obvious to be a dive.

If the odds are 99.9% in our favour, there's still a 0.01% chance we'll lose. I guess this was that one in a thousand game.

nerdmann
Premier Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

This one's way too obvious to be a dive.

If the odds are 99.9% in our favour, there's still a 0.01% chance we'll lose. I guess this was that one in a thousand game.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder

If you look at this team's history, it's really not that much of an outlier. Julio Jones was doing the same thing to us, that's the example I use, but it is one of many.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Cheesey
Preferred Member

9 years ago

I don't believe for a second that they took a dive.
I DO believe that they felt they had the game won, and stopped doing what got them the lead to that point in the game.

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Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?

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beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout

beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL

Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.

Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.

beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach

Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?

beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections

Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : The Jets fired Joe Douglas, per sources

packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Jets are a mess......

Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Pretty sure Jets fired their scouting staff and just pluck former Packers.

Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Jets sign Anders Carlson to their 53.

Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : When you cycle the weeks, the total over remains for season. But you get your W/L for that selected week. Confusing.

packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the total and percentage are the same as the previous weeks

packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : the totals are accurate..nrvrtmind

Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : I don't follow what you are saying. The totals are not the same as last week.

packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : ok so then wht are the totals the same as last week?

Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : NFL Pick'em is auto updated when NFL Scores tab is clicked

Martha Careful (19-Nov) : The offense was OK. Let's not forget the Bear defense is very very good.

packerfanoutwest (19-Nov) : Who updates the leaderboard on NFLPickem?

beast (19-Nov) : Has the Packers offense been worse since the former Jets coach joined the Packers?

Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : Offense gets his ass in gear, this could be good.

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beast (18-Nov) : Dennis Green "They are what we thought they were, and we let them off the hook!"

Martha Careful (17-Nov) : comment of the day Z2Cool "Bears better than we want to admit. Packers worse than we think. It's facts."

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