[img_r]http://cmsimg.greenbaypressgazette.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=U0&Date=20081220&Category=PKR07&ArtNo=81220033&Ref=AR&Profile=1058&MaxW=318&Border=0[/img_r]The Green Bay Packers have their long-term answer at quarterback. The Chicago Bears dont.
Thats the opinion of Ron Jaworski, the former NFL quarterback who now provides color commentary for ESPNs telecasts of Monday night football.
Jaworskis expertise is that of a full-time scouts when it comes to evaluating NFL quarterbacks. He studies film extensively each week in preparation upcoming games. He played quarterback for 16 years in the NFL, including starting for the Philadelphia Eagles for 10 straight seasons.
Hes watched the videotape of every Packers game this season and has seen every pass by the Packers Aaron Rodgers and the Bears Kyle Orton. With Rodgers, he sees a quarterback with all the traits to be a top performer.
I think theyve got a quarterback for 10 years, Jaworski said in an interview this week. Theyve got a lot of areas to address, but theyve got the quarterback.
Its hard to accuse Jaworski of blowing smoke. His public evaluation of Rodgers coming out of college was far different, and this week when asked if Orton is the Bears quarterback for the long haul, he offered this candid response:
No. I think hes a solid quarterback, but I dont see him as the long-term answer in Chicago. Its no disrespect for him. The guy can play 10 or 12 years in this league, but I just dont see the unless theres an epiphany, and from what Ive seen of late, I just dont see it. If youd have asked me this earlier in the season, Id have said, Yeah, I think the guys playing pretty well, he trusts his receivers, hes making some terrific throws. He made a throw against Atlanta which may have been the throw of the year, except Atlanta came back and Matt Ryan took em right down the field (for the win). But I thought he was playing much more confident back then.
Rodgers and Orton, who will face off Monday night for the second time this year, have been the two best quarterbacks in the NFC North Division this season. But if determining the better of the two was a close call early in the season two of three scouts this column interviewed in early November chose Orton it doesnt look as close now. Though Orton has more wins Chicago has eight, the Packers five Rodgers looks like the better player.
Jaworski rated Rodgers better in the three major categories a scout can glean from tape (leadership skills arent apparent watching game tape alone): Arm talent, mobility and decision making.
(Rodgers) has an amazing skill set. I think hell play very well for a long period of time, Jaworski said.
Rodgers and Orton are part of a 2005 draft class that in retrospect looks lean at quarterback. The current starters from the class are Rodgers (first round, No. 24 overall), Washingtons Jason Campbell (first round, No. 25 overall), Orton (fourth round, No. 106), Clevelands Derek Anderson (sixth round, No. 213), New Englands Matt Cassel (seventh round, No. 230) and Cincinnatis Ryan Fitzpatrick (seventh round by St. Louis, No. 250). Cassel, Anderson and Fitzpatrick all were backups who became starters this season because of injuries, and of those three only Cassel is a likely future starter.
After four years in the NFL, Rodgers and Cassel look like the cream of that class, and most of the rest of the 14 quarterbacks drafted in 05 have washed out. That starts with the top pick overall from that draft, Alex Smith of the San Francisco 49ers, who has struggled when hes played and had a series of injuries to his throwing shoulder that landed him on injured reserve this year. He wont be back with the 49ers next year unless he takes a gigantic pay cut, and even then he might be inclined to start over somewhere else.
Three other quarterbacks in the 05 class had a shot at starting earlier in their careers, lost the job and now are backups: Charlie Frye (third round by Cleveland, No. 67), who now is Seattles No. 3 quarterback; Andrew Walter (third round, No. 69), Oaklands backup; and Dan Orlovsky (fifth-round by Detroit, No. 145 overall), who has been on the Lions starting-quarterback merry-go-round this season.
The other four are out of the NFL: David Greene (third round by Seattle, No. 85), whos not in football right now; Stefan Lefors (fourth round by Carolina, No. 121), a backup for Edmonton in the CFL; Adrian McPherson (fifth round by New Orleans, No. 152), who was cut by Grand Rapids of the AFL last spring; and James Kilian (seventh round by Kansas City, No. 229 overall), whos not in football either.
Jaworski didnt recall the order he rated the top quarterbacks coming out in 05 but he remembers downgrading Rodgers and doubting his ability to be a top-tier quarterback because of his arm strength Jaworski didnt see enough good deep throws on Rodgers game videotape at California.
Rodgers, on the other hand, remembers well Jaworskis ratings in 2005. He said Jaworski rated Smith as the best quarterback in the class, Campbell second and him third. Rodgers also remembers Jaworskis 30-second TV spot evaluating him as not having a good enough deep arm, and deploring his high ball carriage while dropping back, which Jaworski said cost Rodgers throwing strength.
Rogers said he respects Jaworskis work because the color man watches videotape extensively and had a long and successful career as an NFL quarterback, but he was dumbfounded by the evaluation and called it probably the worst 30-second piece in history of evaluation of a quarterback pre-draft.
He said me, I held the ball way up here, Rodgers added, holding his hands above his right ear, and lost velocity and wasnt efficient. I said, I just threw for 66 percent. I didnt understand his evaluation.
Nearly four years later, Jaworski thinks differently. He now sees a young quarterback with great promise even though the Packers have lost six of their last seven games, and even though Rodgers hasnt won in the six comeback attempts hes had after getting the ball back with less than 5 minutes to play and the chance for a go-ahead score. Rodgers ranks ninth in the NFL in passer rating (91.8 points) and No. 10 in average gain per pass (7.45 yards), which is one the better indicators of passing efficiency.
I think hes played terrific, I really do, Jaworski said. Some of the problems hes had are symptomatic of a young quarterback on the field. Obviously hes had a few years to learn, but hes still basically a rookie on the field. So you see some bad decisions. What I see from him lately is trying to make plays that arent there, which is probably pressing like a lot of the guys (on the Packers) seem to be. When you get in the tailspin theyre in you try to make everything perfect, and in this league you cant do that. Hes kind of, as of late, trying to force plays, and sometimes you end up being embarrassed by that. Hes pressed a little bit. But overall, the body of work has been outstanding.
Heres how Jaworski rated Rodgers skills:
Arm strength: When I evaluated him coming out of Cal, I did not see the number of deep throws that projected him to be an upper-echelon NFL quarterback. I saw a good quarterback but not enough of the deeper throws. When I saw him at training camp (this year), obviously he had improved dramatically, the arm strength, the ability to throw the ball down the field accurately, and its kind of played out through the season. His arm strength is outstanding.
Mobility and pocket sense: That part has gotten better, which I kind of thought it would, feeling the pressure, moving, hes been very good at that. Hes been very good with play action, his quarterback rating is one of the best in the league off play action, which as an inexperienced quarterback is difficult because theres a blind spot. You make that play-action fake, you turn your back to the defense, you turn your head to the defense, and you snap around and identify people quickly, is a very good asset to have. Hes very good at that.
Decision-making: Its very good. Some of the mistakes he made, I think he was pressing, trying to make every play, and at times the offensive line has let him down a little bit, they have struggled with a good firm pass protection. Clearly when a quarterback is throwing out of a man hole it makes it a lot more difficult.
Jaworski also rated Orton:
Arm strength: Its above average, not a great arm. Certainly Aaron has a much stronger arm.
Mobility and pocket sense: He needs help, he needs protection. Hes not a guy thats going to move around a lot, has a tendency to stare down receivers.
Decision making: Normally (the Bears tight-end oriented offense) is not a progression read for him, its an inside-out, and at that point the balls out. I dont think at this point in his career hes very proficient at going through that progression.