Unlike everyone else the Cowboys have hired since Jimmy Johnson, I think Gruden may have the strength of will/confidence/arrogance to stand up to Jones's strength of will/confidence/arrogance of Jones. I think Gruden would take the offer in a second if it were offered.
And, yes, I put Parcells in that group. All NFL head coaches and head coaching candidates are strong willed before they go to work for someone like Jones. Heck, look at Barry Switzer in his Oklahoma days -- would anyone seriously predict he would become the easy-going yes man he became in his Cowboy years. think he'd take the offer in a second if it were offered. I think just about any head coach candidate not named Jimmy Johnson would.
But Jones, being anything but an idiot, knows this. So unless Jones is willing to go back and repeat the Johnson approach, Gruden isn't going to be offered the job. Jones today, in his position as one of the most powerful owners in the league, is not the Jones the brand new owner who hired Jimmy Johnson and was willing to go 1-15.
Jones today is not going to hire *anyone* who would want to have that kind of real control/influence. He's one of the best marketers on the planet, and so he knows how to convince everyone that the platitudes he speaks about "willing to do anything" extend that far. But he's also one of the shrewdest, moneymaking successes of his time. And he knows it. He ain't going there.
If Jones were to actually make an offer to Gruden, it would mean that he is convinced that under the surface, Gruden will be like Jason Garrett and all the rest, willing to talk tough but not willing to push back like Johnson was. And if, indeed Gruden is another Jimmy Johnson, he'd have no more than two years to get the Cowboys to the Super Bowl. Probably less.
As the owner of the Cowboys, I think Jones is perfect. At some deep level he still thinks his unquestionable superiority in one realm (business) translates into expertise in another (getting a winning NFL team). And so, IMO, he will continue to shoot himself in the foot with his choice of and behavior toward his coaches. As a Packer fan, I like that.
I would love to be a shareholder in one of Jones' enterprises. I'd never play poker with him, because he'd go home with all my money. The man knows how to make money, even with plastic players playing for plastic coaches.
But the very success that he brings to the economic table sows the seeds of the weeds that choke off his team's success on the football field. If I had them money to bet, I'd bet on any Jones business enterprise, including the Dallas Cowboys, Incorporated. But I'd never bet on the Cowboy's getting back to the SUper Bowl while he's owner.
Not if that requires a coach that is stronger willed than Jones himself is.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)