Part 1 Part 2 Change is life in the NFL. Players and teams are constantly getting better and worse and so each year looks different from the previous one. Those who study the NFL will tell you that most players improve in the offseason between their first and second year. Reasons abound for why this is the case, such as having a full offseason for the first time, better conditioning throughout the offseason, or finally understanding the playbook. No matter what the reason is though we see it year in and year out that a guy who ran hot and cold his rookie year steps up year two or three and just breaks out on the scene.
So bear with me as we leap from player to player, each of these guys striving to right what once went wrong, and hoping each time that their improvement will help bring the Lombardi trophy home. What can I say...I hear quantum leap and I think Scott Bakula, I just can't help it.
The first, and probably most obvious candidate for the quantum leap, is
Randall Cobb. I'm not going to lie, this is a bit difficult to type because Cobb had the most impressive single play last year by doing a barrel roll. His play was pretty good, so how much better can he actually be? But the fact is that Cobb's touches should go up and his grasp of the offense is going to be much better. All this points to Cobb having a big year as a WR instead of just a returner, and should give Aaron Rodgers another special option to throw to and continue to make the offense dynamic.
The next guy ready for a break out year may need a break out camp just to make the team.
Davon House is a bit of a forgotten man as of late. Suffering an injury early in the year last year, House didn't make much of an impact through his rookie campaign. On top of this the Packers added a notable rookie at his position in Casey Hayward which should make the competition for field time that much harder for House. If House can stay healthy and put together a good season he will help improve a woeful pass defense last year, keep Jarret Bush on the sidelines, and help transition Charles Woodson to safety.
Despite the promise of Cobb and the need for House, I think the guy most poised for a breakout year out of this group is
D.J. Williams. Now my reason for this is a mixture of need, disappointment last year, and the position he plays. The NFL is a copycat league, and so when one team innovates in an unexpected way, suddenly teams go out and try to copy that to catch up. Sometimes this works, for example the West Coast Offense or the 3-4 defense, or the push for mobile QB's in the last couple years. Sometimes it doesn't work and the fad goes out of fashion (see the Wildcat offense). Right now multiple TE sets are going all the rage. Teams are looking for TE's that can create mismatches. They can run fast enough to blow past LB's, but big and strong enough to be too much for your average safety to handle. Get two of those guys on the field and you can have the option to run or pass, stretch the field or play smash mouth football. The Packers have one guy who can do that in Jermichael Finley, but who would be the second option? Andrew Quarless has the potential, but it sounds like he is behind on his recovery process. Tom Crabtree and Ryan Taylor are great high effort guys, but not exactly the physical threat. Enter D.J. Williams.
Williams was a high performing TE in college who slipped in the draft due to height concerns. This means that he may not have all the mismatches you want, but he does have the ability to get open in space as well as block. Last year he was a bit of the invisible man with only two catches. He can be a solid number two option and has the opportunity if Quarless starts the year on the PUP. If Williams can learn the playbook and flash some talent in training camp he will be uniquely poised in the Packer arsenal this year.
For all the draft picks and guys you expect to step up there is always one guy who comes out of no where and takes his chance at the big time by the throat. Once upon a time that was Tramon Williams. Sam Shields looked like he would do that too back in 2010. One guy who may be able to do that this year is
M.D. Jennings. Jennings is a guy with good range and speed at a position looking for someone to step up. Between all the competition with Charlie Peprah, Anthony Levine, and Jennings himself, there is ample chance for Jennings to make a name for himself. Especially if he can keep making plays like he did the first day of OTA's.
Marshall Newhouse. Newhouse is probably the main guy people wanted to point out that I forgot. There is plenty of good reason for this too, since Newhouse is now stepping into the starting LT role in his own right and did show promise last year. Really his situation reminds me of Bryan Bulaga's situation a year ago. Bulaga stepped into the starting lineup due to the injury to Mark Tauscher and seemed to have an uneven season his rookie year. Profootball Focus rated him poorly and there were mixed messages about Bulaga and if he was going to pan out throughout the offseason last year. This past year though Bulaga was one of the best right tackles in the NFL and one of the most solid offensive linemen the Packers put on the field. Newhouse had a similar story, stepping in for Clifton's injury last year and having some up and down performances (great against Jared Allen but not so good against Jason Pierre-Paul). Now with his first full offseason, Newhouse looks to combine true NFL training with his previous experience to become the heir to Chad Clifton.
Alex Green. I had a tough time choosing between Green and Brandon Saine. There was some push for Saine, but in the end I only wanted one running back on the list and I think Green is the stronger choice. Green has got the size and speed to be successful for the Packers. Better yet, he is the best threat as a receiver among the current running backs which should give him a leg up for getting playing time. The major question surrounding him is his health status after an ACL injury. Right now most reports have been positive, and if these reports are accurate it could be a big season for Green.
D.J. Smith. I want to start by saying that taking a big step is not necessarily starting, especially in the case of Smith. A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop have those starting jobs locked down. Smith did have some shining moments in his relief duty last year; with his speed and nose for the ball he may be able to push for some playing time...especially in subpackages and in coverage where Hawk has been known to struggle. If Smith is able to show something this year and continue to be a high energy playmaking force he will probably be in line for a starting role push next year.
Graham Harrell. I'm not sure if this is unadulterated hope on my part or blind faith in McCarthy and company, but Harrell may be ready to make the biggest leap of all. Perhaps the saving grace for this particular prediction is that if everything goes right we will probably never see it...save for garbage time. So far McCarthy and crew have worked with three backup quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, and Brian Brohm) besides Harrell; and all three have gone on to be starting QB's. Okay, sure Brohm started just a handful of games for some pretty woeful Bills teams, but he still started. Even if you take Brohm out of the equation and you just look at the development of Rodgers and Flynn and that's a pretty good track record. Harrell has finally had a chance to go through QB School and have a full offseason to learn the playbook and go over fundamentals. More importantly, if Harrell taking a step forward means he should be at least a solid backup should the worst happen. If he can put together some good preseason games, maybe even have some good showings like he did last year, he may even be trade bait someday.