Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
12 years ago
And, yes, I know, it's silly ranking a draft this way.

But it's still fun. If you think it's a waste of reading time, just hit the exit button.


Note:
All my grades are graded, not according to an absolute “quality” criterion, but based on value-per-draft-position-used. My giving a B grade to a round one pick and an A grade to a fourth round pick does not mean I think the fourth rounder is a better player. It only means that I don’t think the first rounder is an A first rounder. A B for a first rounder might mean (as it does for this year’s Packer pick) that I don’t think the person is first-round value. But it doesn’t necessarily mean I think the A seconder is a better players than the 1st rounder. Usually he won't be.

Round 1, pick 28: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, Southern California.

Virtually everyone else loves this pick. I still think he was second-round talent, and this draft was rich in second-round talent. Not a “bad” pick, just less value than spending #28 should garner. He’ll definitely help, though. Whether he plays DE as he reportedly wants, or OLB as Green Bay says they’ll use him, he’ll be an upgrade over 2011.

Was Perry best-available at 28? Maybe. But that doesn’t make him worth a first rounder. I don’t think it’s enough that a presidential candidate is better than the alternative candidates; I’m only going to vote for one that is good enough to rate residency in the White House. And I don’t think it’s enough to draft at 28 that Perry might be the best 35-quality available. If I think he’s the best 35, then I find a way to trade down to get closer to 35. And based on what Tampa did with Denver, that was a possibility.

Grade: B-.

Round 2, pick 51: Jerel Worthy, DT/DL, Michigan State.

Everyone else REALLY loves this pick. Again, I appear alone. Like Perry, he’ll be an upgrade over last year. But while there’s definitely potential there to be a major stud DE, there’s also a real possibility that he’ll be the next Mike Neal. (And remember, Neal was drafted in the second, too, and he’s not shown himself worthy of that round yet.) Worthy to me was a third round value, so late second makes it a bit of a reach.

But my biggest problem with this pick is that it also cost the Packers’ highest fourth rounder. To my mind, the third through the early fifth of this draft was the real strength of this draft. Who knows whether Worthy himself would have still been available at 58. Probably not, not if the love across the board for this Packer pick, and Thompson’s choice, is any indication of how NFL GMs assessed his value-for-draft-location. But to mind there were lots of players that I considered at Worthy’s value-for-location who were. And they wouldn’t have cost a player in the fourth of the quality of a Nate Potter or Senio Kelemete or Justin Bethel or Jared Crick.

Grade: B.

Round 2, pick 62: Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt

Sigh. I find myself getting really bitchy. This pick I just don’t like. Yes, it fits a need. And, I see no problem with using this pick for the secondary. But, as with the first two picks, I think this is a pick of less value that his draft location should garner. Hayward to me was a mid-third rounder. Ronnell Lewis and Alameda Ta’amu were second-round value; Hayward wasn’t.

And unlike Perry and Worthy, I can’t see Hayward as best player available when the Packers were on the clock. He wasn’t even the best DB. Josh Robinson, Markelle Martin, Justin Bethel, Trumaine Johnson, George Iloka, Brandon Hardin, Coryell Judie -- I liked them all more than I liked Hayward.

And, like Worthy, the Hayward choice cost a value mid-fifth pick. A pick that could be used on a Judie or a Chase Minnifield at corner, a Neiko Thorpe at FS, Quenten Saulsberry or Ben Jones or Tom Compton on the OL, maybe even a Loni Fangupo at DT or a Josh Kaddu at OLB.

Grade: C.

Round 4, pick 132: Mike Daniels, DT, Iowa.

No fourth rounder is perfect. Every one of them will have things you don’t like. Daniels is small for a DT. He was 290 his senior year at Iowa, but that was weight just put on. I’m not sure how much bigger he can get. That may hurt him against NFL-strength interior linemen. How will he hold the point of attack? Will he need double teams. That said, I think this is sound fourth round value. He’s technically sound. He gets things done. Lots of tackles for loss last year. Iowa DL starters tend to be pro material before they’re done.

I don’t see him as the same value as a Nate Potter (OT, Boise State) or Josh Norman (CB, Coastal Carolina), so I can’t give the pick an A. But I still like it.

Grade: B+/A-.

Round 4, pick 133: Jerron McMillan, S, Maine.

Sorry, I like this pick not at all. Way above where I think his value was. To me he’s seventh round value. Were there not so many fourth/fifth possibilities at safety out there, maybe reach for him then. But, come on. You’ve got Martin, Iloka, Neiko Thorpe, D J Campbell, all offering more at safety; you’ve got Justin Bethel who can play three positions and is an outstanding special team option, you’ve got Quintin Robinson, Alphonso Dennard and Philip Thompson who some would put above him. Not to mention that Coastal Carolina CB who is going to offer the defensive background far, far more. Only reason this grade isn’t lower is that (i) he has good measurables, and (ii) I remember overreacting when Nick Collins was picked several years ago, and I was spectacularly wrong that time. But I’m still predicting that Josh Norman is going to show more than he and Hayward combined.

And I’m starting to believe we lost more than we thought when Reggie McKenzie went west.

Grade: C-.

Round 5, pick 163: Terrell Manning, OLB N.C. State.

Good pick. Would have rather seen an offensive lineman like Senio Kelemete (OT/OG) or Nate Potter (OT), , or a safety like Martin or Iloka. The multi-talented Justin Bethel was also still available. Uneven as a pass rusher; not likely to be improvement over current LBs in coverage. Very good against the run, and sheds blocks well. Has had knee injuries. Has some upside (came out as junior). Definitely value for position. Worth trading back for, but price of sixth and two sevenths might have been a bit steep.

Grade: B+.

Round 7, pick 241: Andrew Datko, OT, Florida State.

Another good value pick. Has had shoulder problems (most recently being lost for most of 2011) -- that make him a risk (multiple surgeries). Even with them, he’s late fourth talent or better. 48 career starts. Better against run, but also gave up just 3 sacks over sophomore and junior years. Great attitude, smart hard worker, still has upside if the shoulder holds. Without the shoulder problems likely would have been long gone by day 3; they’re the only reason this isn’t an A pick.

Grade: A-.

Round 7, pick 243: B. J. Coleman, QB, Chattanooga. Excellent value pick.

Has inspired the usual sort of overstated comparison to a certain former Packer quarterback that tough, strong-armed southern quarterbacks inevitably bring. But he is tough, he is a real leader, and he has a good, strong arm. And, unlike said former quarterback, he has good mechanics. He’s also very raw. Needs a couple years in a McCarthy “quarterback school” to refine his skills. That’s why he’s a seventh rounder. But he has real NFL potential. Could leapfrog Harrell and provide trade value down the line.

Grade: A.

Lots of value in this draft for the Packers. All in all, a pretty good job by Thompson and company. The 2012 team will be better than the 2011, especially on defense. No question about it.

But it’s weird. For years, I’ve objected from time to time about how Ted likes to trade down. Now, I finally figure out that his “get value-for-draft-position-or-trade-down” approach is the best draft approach, I follow it in evaluating this draft, and I have more criticism of his picks, especially his top picks, than ever before.

I’m convinced that Ted still follows his basic strategy and only picks people he thinks have value at or greater for the draft spot used. I have no doubt that’s what he did in years past. I have no doubt that’s what he’ll do in the future. And, though the Hayward and McMillian picks, especially, bother me, I have no doubt that’s what he did this year.

And I expect he’ll have picked a lot more winners this year than I would have.

So it goes.

Overall draft grade: B.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
12 years ago
for all that pissing and moaning you went thru and you gave a B?
UserPostedImage
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
12 years ago

for all that pissing and moaning you went thru and you gave a B?

Originally Posted by: wpr 



Don't you know.....Grade inflation runs rampant among college professors.

Remember, my main complaints were all about "when" the players were drafted.

(except for the two DBs).


And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
gijoe82
12 years ago
Round 4, pick 132: Mike Daniels, DT, Iowa.

No fourth rounder is perfect. Every one of them will have things you don’t like. Daniels is small for a DT. He was 290 his senior year at Iowa, but that was weight just put on. I’m not sure how much bigger he can get. That may hurt him against NFL-strength interior linemen. How will he hold the point of attack? Will he need double teams. That said, I think this is sound fourth round value. He’s technically sound. He gets things done. Lots of tackles for loss last year. Iowa DL starters tend to be pro material before they’re done.

I don’t see him as the same value as a Nate Potter (OT, Boise State) or Josh Norman (CB, Coastal Carolina), so I can’t give the pick an A. But I still like it.

Grade: B+/A-.

Common wade, its an arbitrary report, have some gusto. Is it an A- or a B+?
blank
beast
12 years ago

for all that pissing and moaning you went thru and you gave a B?

Originally Posted by: wpr 



I'll give his grading a C-

All the talk about value and didn't even bring up, what could be Thompson best trade ever, value wise (not taking into account, how the players turned out). Pick numbers #90 and #163 for #62.

And later we traded up to get #163 back by traded the 6th and two 7th picks. So basically it was the Packers late 3rd, 6th, 7th with the Jets 7th which the Packers had for a late 2nd round pick.

But you gotta give him some credit for taking the time to write it, and post it. Personally I think the write ups are better with out the grades.

Also FYI I agree with CB Josh Norman comments... but some of the other guys dropped a lot... no teams seemed very interested in them, such as Martin, Iloka, Alphonso Dennard... and Dennard decided it would be smart to hit a cop less than two weeks before the draft? ... Com'on Man!

(Dennard got into a fight with someone outside a club or bar, cops tried to break it up, cop claims Bennard pushed and then punched him, then four cops took him down, less than two weeks before the draft... he dropped a lot...)
UserPostedImage
zombieslayer
12 years ago
Great read and I understand the methodology completely. What was the value for the spot? It's pretty simple. Glad Wade stuck to it.

But then again, that WPR comment was hilarious.

As for what I think, I bitched and moaned about the D and the lack of pass rush all season long. What did 🇹🇹 do? Drafted almost entirely D and his very first picks were pass rushers. That's what I wanted. I'm happy.

If the first 2 picks are starters and improvements over 2010, we had a decent draft. The rest are much needed depth.

My question for Wade or anyone else, which of these guys will be starters in 2012?
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evad04
12 years ago
As Dave Mason once said/sang: "We just disagree."

Your lowest rated pick was my favorite of the entire draft. I'll post more thoughts later when I'm not tired. But thanks for the post, Wade. It's always nice to read the thoughts of intelligent people.
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nerdmann
12 years ago
Every year they say they got the guys they wanted. But when they actually trade up to GET a guy? You know for sure Ted wanted him.
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Packers_Finland
12 years ago
I don't know about "bad value".

Mike Mayock thought Worthy was the #2 prospect on the board when the second day began. He's the guy you listen to when it comes to draft stuff. I thought it was a great pick.

Hayward too, he was picked right where he should be. Then suddenly Mike Daniels is good value? I don't know what kind of backwards ass board you had.

You said you thought Coyrell Judie had better value than Hayward. Well, Judie went undrafted.
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TheKanataThrilla
12 years ago
One thing that always bothers me is when a person is drafted and comments come out that we should have traded back to get him. You don't think that Ted trys to trade back? You can't force somebody to trade with you.

I like the draft picks. I wish we would have selected a Center as I am not convinced Saturday doesn't retire if we manage to win the Superbowl. I really like the idea of Saturday mentoring our future Center as Jeff has been one of the best in the business for quite a while now.
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